Reminder: Treat Exit Polls Like Popcorn

This election season, with contests in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, could be a make-or-mar one for polling agencies.

Exit polls for the much-awaited Assembly elections of Maharashtra and Jharkhand are out.

(Image: The Quint/@Vibhushita Singh)

Exit polls for the much-awaited Assembly elections of Maharashtra and Jharkhand are out. Different agencies have come up with different numbers that will keep voters and spectators guessing and glued to their TV sets on 23 November.

Exit polls are normally a better barometer than opinion polls, and if not quite accurate in terms of seats, they do suggest the direction of the trends of an election. However, the exit poll fiasco of the 2024 general elections, where all agencies got it wrong, and even of the Haryana Assembly elections that followed, has led to people questioning their relevance.

So close is the contest that two of the biggest pollsters – Axis My India and C-Voter – have not released their numbers for Maharashtra, preferring to take an extra day to study the data.

They have grown cautious after the recent debacles. This election season could be a make-or-mar one for polling agencies. If they get it wrong, then the industry could take a long time to recover and regain the trust of the viewers, and of the channels who commission such surveys.

No Consensus on Who's Winning

As has been the track record in the last few elections, the pollsters do not have any consensus on who’s winning. The poll of polls in Maharashtra shows the Mahayuti retaining power with 149 seats and the MVA ending up at 129 seats, failing to build on its momentum after a spectacular performance in the general elections.

With a standard 1%-3% margin of error, things could easily turn the other way around. Two agencies show an MVA victory.

The table below is a summary of all the exit polls for Maharashtra.

In Jharkhand, the poll of polls suggests a hung house with both the BJP-led NDA and the JMM-led INDIA bloc winning almost equal number of seats, i.e., 39-38. Three agencies have given an edge to the INDIA bloc while four to the NDA, and one predicting a hung assembly.

The table below is a summary of all the exit polls for Jharkhand.

Pollsters talk to the same set of voters. So, why do they give different calls?

There are multiple reasons for disparities. While pollsters go about scientific sampling, voters may or may not respond in the same scientific manner. For example, some voting groups may be less fearful of participating in such surveys, others may not.

Furthermore, some (if not many) voters may actually lie (for whatever reason) to the interviewers. The pollster then needs to make a correction for this and very often uses historical information to do the same.

Against this backdrop, predicting who will win is not easy for the agencies. However, their difference of opinion can still provide key takeaways. 

• If the NDA wins Maharashtra and loses Jharkhand, as some pollsters suggest, it means that the Ladki Bahin/Maiya Samman scheme has worked in both states. If the NDA wins both states, it means that Ladki Bahin Yojana worked in Maharashtra, but a similar scheme did not work in Jharkhand, which is counterintuitive. 

• If the Mahayuti wins Maharashtra, it would suggest that issues like agrarian distress, inflation, unemployment, rural distress, corruption, and the Maratha agitation have all been trumped by the Ladki Bahin Yojana and the micro-management of the BJP.

• If the MVA wins, like two agencies predicting, then it means exactly the opposite, i.e., that all bread-and-butter issues did matter, and soft bribing of voters does not work. 

• If the JMM-led alliance wins Jharkhand, then tribal asmita (identity/pride) played a key role which trumped the BJP’s batenge toh katenge narrative. It would establish Hemant Soren as the undisputed leader of tribals. 

• If the NDA wins Jharkhand, then the BJP’s allegedly divisive politics worked, and the non-tribals consolidated in large numbers behind the BJP.

• If the NDA wins both Maharashtra and Jharkhand, then the BJP would be able to prove that the 2024 general elections were an aberration, and PM Modi is back with a bang (especially after Haryana). It would then push forward contentious bills like the UCC, Waqf, One Nation One Election, etc. 

• If the NDA loses Maharashtra and Jharkhand, then it would highlight that the Modi magic is indeed fading, and unemployment and inflation continue to be big issues as suggested by the results of the general elections.

But treat exit polls like popcorn.

Exit polls remain in the minds of viewers and clients for a longer time than opinion poll surveys. There is, therefore, much more pressure to deliver accurate results. That is where the background of the pollsters matters a lot.

Exit polls quench our curiosity and excitement between the last day of the election and counting day. Even if they are wrong, they provide a catchy start that keeps us hooked till the end of counting day, just like the first scene of a film. It is better, therefore, to think of exit polls as nothing more than popcorn.

(Amitabh Tiwari is an independent political commentator and can be reached at @politicalbaaba on X [formerly Twitter]. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)