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The bypoll results of the three seats which went to polls on 24 February 2018 have been announced. The Congress has held onto the two seats in Madhya Pradesh (MP), losing the Odisha seat to ruling party Biju Janata Dal (BJD).
The loss in MP is a blow to the BJP, considering Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan had campaigned extensively for the two seats. It signals that the party could face significant anti-incumbency headwinds in the upcoming polls later this year.
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In Bijepur, the BJD’s Rita Sahu defeated the BJP’s Ashok Panigrahi by over 40,000 votes. Bijepur is a traditional Congress stronghold. The party’s Sabal Sahu had won the seat consecutively in the past three elections (2004, 2009 and 2014) despite the party’s base shrinking all over the state. The BJD gave a ticket to Sabal’s wife Rita Sahu, cashing in on the ‘sympathy wave’. The BJP gave a ticket to former MLA and BJD rebel Ashok Panigrahi.
In the 2014 Assembly Elections, Sabal had managed to sneak in with a margin of less than 500 votes. In the Lok Sabha elections, which were held simultaneously, the BJP led this Assembly segment by over 2,000 votes.
After trailing in the initial round of counting, the Congress retained the Mungaoli Assembly seat in Madhya Pradesh after a nail-biting finish with 68,129 votes and a margin of just 2,107 votes. Brijendra Singh Yadav of the Congress defeated his sister-in-law Bai Sahab Yadav of the BJP.
The party has also won the state’s Kolaras Assembly seat. Mahendra Singh Yadav (son of ex-legislator Ram Singh Yadav) of the Congress defeated 2008 winner Devendra Kumar Jain of the BJP by 8,086 votes.
Although the BJP managed to reduce the lead substantially in both the seats, in Kolaras, the Congress benefited from the ‘sympathy wave’.
The BJP is threatening to dislodge Naveen Patnaik in Odisha. The state goes to polls along with Lok Sabha elections in 2019. The BJP hopes to win in the state banking on the ‘Modi factor’, exploiting the anti-incumbency against 20 years of BJD rule and infighting within the party. The BJP, once an ally of the BJD, is establishing itself as the second most potent force in Odisha, overtaking the Congress.
Ever since JB Patnaik left the Congress, the party’s graph has been steadily declining in the state. From 39 percent vote share in 1995 to 26 percent in 2014 state elections to a record low of 18 percent in panchayat polls in 2017 and now a paltry 6 percent in the by-elections.
The party has changed its state leadership seven times during 2000-2014 and looks completely out of sorts in the state. The BJD’s thumping win in Bijepur is partly due to a ‘sympathy wave’ in favour of Sabal’s wife Rita. The victory also establishes Naveen Patnaik as the undisputed leader of Odisha and protector of ‘Odia pride’. A fascinating contest between Patnaik and Modi awaits in 2019.
The BJP doesn’t have any state leader of Patnaik’s stature and this could act as a major roadblock in its “Mission 120” for Odisha.
The Congress is hoping to make a comeback in MP after 15 years, exploiting anti-incumbency against Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s government. However, like in most states, the leadership decision is still open. There are three-four leaders both at the national level – Jyotiraditya Scindia, Kamalnath, Digvijay Singh and Kantilal Bhuria – and at the state level – Arun Yadav, Ajai Singh and Jitu Patwari.
One section feels the party should contest under a combined leadership. The victory strengthens Jyotiraditya’s claims of being projected as a chief ministerial candidate in the state. In my opinion, the ‘high command’ could avoid naming a leader, as it may encourage in-fighting,
While he remains popular, there is significant anti-incumbency developing against the sitting MLAs. The party could deny tickets to one-third to half of its sitting MLAs to negate the anger amongst the public.
The Mandsaur incident in which 6 farmers lost their lives led to farmer protests all over the state. However, this has been doused somewhat by Bhavantar Bhugtan Yojana, which compensates farmers for low output prices. A keen battle is on the anvil in the state, provided the Congress puts up a united fight.
Rajasthan and MP, along with Chhattisgarh, will be going to polls just 3-4 months before the Lok Sabha elections in 2019. Rajasthan has a history of throwing out incumbent governments every five years. While both Raman Singh and Shivraj Singh are popular, they will be battling anti-incumbency of 15 years.
To negate the anti-incumbency against state units, Modi-Shah duo could prepone the national elections, in my opinion, and hold the elections with these 3 states together. This way they hope to sail through, banking on the ‘Modi factor’. Interesting times ahead!
(The writer is a freelance journalist who writes extensively on Indian politics. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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Published: 28 Feb 2018,09:28 PM IST