In Rajasthan, Is BJP Paying the Price for Sidelining Vasundhara Raje?

Supporters of the BJP and Vasundhara Raje at a BJP rally. Image used for representation only.

(File Photo)

The Lok Sabha elections are done and dusted, the saffron brigade has been jolted, a new NDA government has been formed, and portfolios have been allocated – but the only woman chief minister of Rajasthan remains conspicuously missing. The fact that her son Dushyant Singh, now a five-time MP from Jhalawar, was yet again ignored for a ministerial berth reflects how strongly Vasundhara Raje is being cold-shouldered by the BJP top brass.

Ever since Raje was bypassed as the chief ministerial choice after BJP won the Assembly polls last December, there was a big buzz that if her son Dushyant won his seat in the 2024 election, he would be made a minister in the Union government.

Political circles were agog that Dushyant’s possible elevation was a part of a political settlement which ensured Raje’s silence with the promise of making her son a central minister after the Lok Sabha polls.

Leaving Dushyant Singh Out

Significantly, Dushyant is currently the senior-most Lok Sabha member from Rajasthan, having won his seat five times. But his claims were once again overlooked like in 2014 and 2019 when Raje lobbied hard for his inclusion. Old-timers recall that relations between Raje and Modi soured after the PM’s refusal in 2014 to induct Dushyant into his Cabinet, on the plea that he was pursuing a policy of not giving ministerial berths to children of senior party leaders.

Curiously, Raje’s son has been ignored despite the inclusion of a dozen political heirs in the union ministry, reflecting that Modi is no longer shy of promoting dynasts. In effect, this signifies that Dushyant’s claims are being overlooked mainly due to the long-standing feud between Raje and the Modi-Shah duo who have dominated BJP politics over the past decade.

The non-accommodation of Dushyant in the Union Ministry is the latest sign of the animosity between Raje and the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah dispensation who have greatly trimmed her role in Rajasthan BJP in recent years. But the manner of Raje’s sidelining in the Lok Sabha campaign has been blatant, almost brutal. Despite her seniority and popular appeal, Raje was ignored in handing out party tickets, her loyalists were dumped (like sitting MP Rahul Kaswan in Churu), and she was assigned no specific election-related role.

Raje’s Complete Marginalisation in the Lok Sabha Campaign

Shockingly, the two-time CM of Rajasthan Raje was not even invited to public rallies of PM Modi or Home Minister Amit Shah in the desert state. The political buzz suggests that even candidates in the Lok Sabha fray were hesitant to invite Raje for campaigning as they were scared of the wrath of the party's high command; in effect, BJP bosses had virtually turned Raje into a political untouchable!

Raje’s complete marginalisation in the Lok Sabha campaign was in marked contrast to how BJP bosses dealt with her before the Assembly polls. A crafty ‘blow hot, blow cold’ policy had evolved at that time to prevent any open revolt by Raje and her camp. Though they never conceded Raje’s central demand of being made the CM face, the BJP top brass played a clever ‘cat and mouse’ game to outfox Raje.

As such, in 2023 Raje was often accommodated and given public prominence in state polls. For instance, at a public rally in Ajmer soon after the BJP lost in Karnataka last year, Raje was seated next to PM Modi and showcased in all publicity materials for the event – in an obvious bid to signal that Raje would play a vital role in the state dispensation.

Raje’s rehabilitation was a clever ploy by the BJP to avoid any BS Yeddyurappa-type fiasco in Rajasthan. Even party President JP Nadda took special care to give prominence to Raje at all BJP events.

At other times, however, the BJP top brass gave contrasting signals like not allowing Raje to become the sole face of the Parivartan Yatra, excluding her from key election panels, and dropping some of her major loyalists in the party’s first list of candidates. As a massive revolt threatened to derail BJP prospects, lots of Raje supporters were soon given tickets in the second list to ensure that Raje and her camp were adequately placated.

Overall, a general perception was created that Raje would be integral to BJP plans in Rajasthan and may return to helm a potential BJP government as this helped woo voters. But after winning the elections, the BJP High Command dumped Raje and replaced her with a debutant MLA Bhajanlal Sharma, an RSS protégé with little experience.

Ever since Raje has been pushed to the margins and denied any role or position in the state hierarchy. Besides suffering younger leaders in top positions, Raje has been targeted not just by the Modi-Shah duo but also by the RSS lobby in the state that was daggers-drawn with the Raje camp which dominated the state in the past two decades.

Raje reportedly turned down an offer to be Speaker of the state Assembly as she realised the negative signal that it implied. Also, unlike Shivraj Chauhan who stayed active and positive despite being dumped as CM in Madhya Pradesh, Raje has become silent, withdrawn into a shell and keeps her own counsel. As the BJP top brass didn’t invite her to rallies and road shows, Raje confined herself to only her son Dushyant’s campaign in the Lok Sabha battle. 

It is worth underlining that though she has been a star campaigner of the BJP for over 25 years, this time, Raje was hardly invited or spotted in campaigns in other states too, even though her charisma and mass appeal are well-known. With the BJP being jolted both nationally and, in the state, the key question is – will Raje now be assigned a worthwhile role in the party’s hierarchy?

Raje Still Has Plenty of Support

Given the larger churn in the BJP, Raje’s future may well be linked to how the internal dynamics in the party pan out nationally. But in Rajasthan, with the BJP dropping 11 of the total 25 seats which it won in the last two elections, political circles are buzzing over the theory that the sidelining of Raje played a critical role in the BJP’s poor performance.

Political observers believe that not only is Raje’s popularity and grassroots connect intact, but a large chunk of BJP MLAs is still on her side. A section of the state BJP is already questioning the leadership of CM Bhajan Lal Sharma Sharma, especially as the party lost even in his home district of Bharatpur.

Party insiders suggest a silent storm is brewing in the Rajasthan BJP and if Raje provides leadership to the dissident camp, the next few months could see an upheaval in the saffron brigade in the state.

Many recall that when Raje presented her first-ever Budget in 2004, she had read out a famous Urdu couplet: “Aandhiyon se keh do zara aukaat mein rahein, hum paron sey nahin, hauslon se uda karte hain” (roughly translated, it says – “Tell the storms to stay in within limits, We soar High on the strength of our conviction, not on our wings”).

The next few months will clarify if Raje has the courage and conviction to tackle her detractors. If not, the leader who once ran a ‘one-woman show’ in Rajasthan risks fading into political oblivion. 

(The author is a veteran journalist and expert on Rajasthan politics. Besides serving as a Resident Editor at NDTV, he has been a Professor of Journalism at the University of Rajasthan in Jaipur. He tweets at @rajanmahan. This is an opinion article and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)