Maharashtra to Vote on 20 Nov: Decoding Mahayuti and MVA's Seat-Sharing Muddle

The recent defeat of the Congress in Haryana is likely to weaken its bargaining power within the Maha Vikas Aghadi.

The Haryana results could weaken the bargaining power of Congress within the MVA.

(Photo: Aroop Mishra/The Quint)

Days after the shocking defeat of the Congress party in Haryana, the Election Commission announced the dates for the Maharashtra Assembly elections – the state will vote in single phase on 20 November, with results to be declared on 23 November.

Even as the grand old party reportedly held a meeting to chalk out its strategy for Maharashtra, the performance in Haryana is likely to weaken its bargaining power within the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) – comprising the Congress, the NCP-Sharad Pawar, and the Shiv Sena-Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray (UBT).

Knives are already out in the INDIA bloc, with the Shiv Sena-UBT criticising the Congress’ decision to contest elections without accommodating its allies.

The Shiv Sena-UBT could also revive its demands of naming Uddhav Thackeray as the alliance's chief ministerial face. On the other hand, the victory gives the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) the elbow to negotiate hard with allies the Shiv Sena-Eknath Shinde and the NCP-Ajit Pawar within the Mahayuti alliance.

Maharashtra's New Political Landscape

The political landscape in the state has changed quite a bit in the last five years with the two main regional parties splitting up, complicating matters for both.

In the first test for the MVA and the Mahayuti in the 2024 general elections, the MVA bagged the trophy, winning 30 seats, while the Mahayuti bagged 17 seats. Both alliances scored around 44 percent of the vote share each. 

In terms of leads in Assembly segments, the MVA led in 153 seats (Congress 63, Shiv Sena-UBT 57, NCP-Sharad Pawar 33), and the Mahayuti led in 126 seats (BJP 79, Shiv Sena-Eknath Shinde 40, NCP-Ajit Pawar 6, and the Rashtriya Samaj Paksha 1). The simple majority mark in the Assembly is 145 seats.

As per reports, the BJP could contest 140-150 seats, the Shiv Sena-Eknath Shinde 80 and the NCP-Ajit Pawar 55. The MVA is expected to share the seats equally (one-third each) as per some other reports. But no official confirmation is out yet.

Data from the past four elections shows that the BJP has contested anywhere between 111 and 164 seats when it has contested in alliance with the Shiv Sena (pre-split). On the other hand, the Congress has contested 147-170 seats, and the NCP (pre-split) 113-124 seats.

The BJP is the clear leader of Mahayuti – and so it has a claim on the highest number of seats, with 105 MLAs in the current Assembly. With 40-odd MLAs each of the Shiv Sena-Eknath Shinde and the NCP-Ajit Pawar, the BJP could look at retaining the 164 seats it contested in 2019 and distributing the remaining 124 among its allies.

If this formula is accepted, then the Shiv Sena-Eknath Shinde and the NCP-Ajit Pawar may get to contest 60 seats each, which will be half of what they contested pre-split in 2019. The BJP could argue that the strength of these parties has halved and hence, the formula is justifiable. 

The problem that both Ekanth Shinde and Ajit Pawar are facing is that they have already lost round one of the asli/nakli debate with Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar, respectively, in the general elections. If the Shinde-Ajit Pawar fight on a lesser number of seats than the Shiv Sena-UBT/NCP-Sharad Pawar, then it gives credence to the theory that they are not the original party and could demotivate the cadres and the second-rung leaders.

Impact of the Split on the MVA 

By virtue of the splits, the Congress is now the number one party in the MVA, both in terms of the number of MLAs as well as leads in Assembly segments in the 2024 general elections. It was fancying retaining the 150-odd seats it contested in 2019 – and leaving 130-140 for the Shiv Sena-UBT and the NCP-Sharad Pawar.

However, in terms of strike rate, it recorded the lowest (30 percent) in 2019, winning just 44 of the 147 seats contested. On the other hand, the NCP and Shiv Sena (pre-split) recorded a strike rate of 44 percent and 45 percent, and therefore, Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray may not give the Congress the courtesy of contesting in more seats.

In short, the number of seats contested in the past may not be a benchmark for seat sharing in this election. The Haryana results have also pushed back the Congress' plans.

The Fine Print

Region-wise strengths and weaknesses can be used as a barometer of seat distribution. As per the 2019 results and the historical trends of past elections, the BJP’s strong areas are Vidarbha and Western Maharashtra. Its weakest area is the Thane-Konkan region.

Both the Shiv Sena factions are strong in Mumbai and the Thane-Konkan region, followed by Marathwada, while they are weak in the other three regions i.e. Northern and Western Maharashtra, and Vidarbha. Both NCP factions are the strongest in Western Maharashtra and the weakest in Mumbai. They have a moderate presence in the other four regions.

The Congress is the strongest in Vidarbha, followed by Western Maharashtra, and the weakest in Thane-Konkan. Historically, it has done well in Mumbai as well.

From the Mahayuti side, the BJP and the Shiv Sena-Eknath Shinde could share a large chunk of seats in Mumbai, Thane-Konkan, and the Marathwada regions with the NCP-Ajit Pawar taking a backseat. The NCP-Ajit Pawar, however, could get a lion’s share in Western Maharashtra, followed by the BJP, with the Shiv Sena-Eknath Shinde taking a backseat. 

The BJP could get the majority of seats in Vidarbha, as it is primarily a BJP vs Congress direct contest zone. In Northern Maharashtra, the BJP could contest half the seats, leaving the other half equally for the Shiv Sena-Eknath Shinde and the NCP-Ajit Pawar.

From the MVA side, the Shiv Sena-UBT could take a large chunk of seats in Mumbai, followed by the Congress, with the NCP-Sharad Pawar taking a backseat. Thane-Konkan, on the other hand, is mainly a fight between the two factions of the Shiv Sena.

Again, the Congress could get a lion’s share in Vidarbha as it is primarily a BJP vs Congress direct contest zone. In Northern Maharashtra, all three could share seats equally, while in Marathwada, the seats could be shared on a 40:30:30 ratio between the three parties. In Western Maharashtra, the NCP-Sharad Pawar should get a large chunk, followed by the Congress and the Shiv Sena-UBT, since it is mainly a fight between the NCP factions on most of the seats.

Both the alliances will need to be mindful of rebels spoiling their chances. We could see many rebels contesting as independents, and thus, playing the role of vote cutter in Haryana. The “others” have historically had a 25 percent average vote share or 30-odd seats in Maharashtra in the last five elections.

Time is running out for both alliances. Ticket distribution is required to be done sooner as it would give candidates more time to settle disputes and campaign effectively in an election where the vote transfer between partners will be very crucial. 

(Amitabh Tiwari is an independent political commentator and can be reached at @politicalbaaba on X [formerly Twitter]. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)