Haryana Election Result: Did the Dalit Vote Cost Congress its Expected Victory?

How did Dalits vote in the Haryana election—did they vote for BJP or Congress? Did side-lining Selja cost Congress?

In this story, we analyse how did Dalits vote in the Haryana election—did they vote for the BJP or the Congress? Why did they switch from their traditional Congress support to the BJP? Did the Dalit vote cost the Congress its expected election victory? Read more to find out.

(Image: The Quint/@Kamran Akhter)

The Haryana Assembly election results on 8 October dealt a blow to the Congress and a surprise third term to the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP). Surprise because the BJP bucked heavy anti-incumbency in the state, along with discontent over issues such as unemployment and poor infrastructure — which the Congress capitalised on during its poll campaigns.  

After polling concluded on 5 October, a clutch of exit polls predicted a clean sweep by the Congress, with the party expected to win 45-60 of the total 90 seats in Haryana’s Assembly.  

But they were wrong. And the reason could be in Haryana’s complex caste calculus.  

Jats, who form 27 percent of the state’s population and have clout in at least 40 seats, have traditionally thrown their weight behind the Congress. This time, it was more pronounced because Jats led two major protests against the BJP—the farmers’ agitation and the wrestler’s protest. To counter this, the BJP tried to consolidate non-Jat votes.  

But how did BJP’s formula work and Congress’ didn’t? 

“Dalits, who have typically favoured the Congress, may have switched to the BJP because of the muscular Jat movement this time around,” Delhi-based senior journalist Ajoy Bose told The Quint.  

Could the Dalit vote have cost Congress its expected victory in Haryana, we find out:

Dalits Voted Against Jat Domination in Haryana Politics

Let’s look at the voter behaviour in the 17 seats reserved in Haryana for candidates belonging to Scheduled Castes (SC). In at least six of these seats, voters have switched to the BJP barely four months after voting for the Congress in the Lok Sabha elections held in May. This includes the two seats wrested from AAP, which contested in alliance with the Congress.

So, what compelled Dalit voters to switch?  

“The Congress made a mistake by putting all its eggs in the basket of Bhupinder Singh Hooda, who emerged as a larger-than-life Jat leader. This created disquiet among other communities, including Dalits,” Bose explained.  

Bose added that Dalits, who have suffered at the hands of Jats (remember, 2010 Mirchpur violence?), were wary of Hooda being projected as a “Jat honcho” and the dominance of the community in state politics if he were to become the chief minister. Besides, Hooda, who was Haryana’s chief minister for nearly ten years (2005-2014) is an old and conventional leader.

“While the Jats voted largely for the Congress, it is safe to assume based on 2024 Lok Sabha election results that Dalits voted for the BJP,” Bose said. Meanwhile, smaller parties like Om Prakash Chautala’s Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) played spoilsport.  

For example, in Narwana, BJP’s Krishan Kumar defeated Congress’ Satbir Dablain by a margin of over 11,000 votes. However, INLD candidate Vidya Rani Danoda, who was the second runner up got 46,000 votes—over four times the victory margin. 

Again, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) — which contested the election in alliance with INLD— pulled a lot of votes in at least three constituencies but not enough to register a victory. The result was that the Dalit vote got fractured.

Sidelining of Kumari Selja Cost the Congress

Hooda’s hegemony in Haryana created another complication for the Congress – the side-lining of Kumar Selja. The Dalit politician won the Lok Sabha elections this year from Sirsa and has been a former Union cabinet minister.  

But for the Vidhan Sabha elections, Selja was marginalised. A source told The Quint that during the poll campaign, Hooda supporters spoke in derogatory terms about Selja and seems to have upset many of Selja’s supporters, Dalit workers in the Congress and the Dalit community at large. 

Factionalism in the Congress became more apparent when Selja remained absent from campaigning in the last three weeks of September.  

In an interview to The Indian Express, she claimed that ticket distribution was “monopolised” by the party’s state unit led by Udai Bhan and party affairs incharge Deepak Babaria.

Selja added that when she approached the party high command, “...they heard us, we gave our choice of candidates, but they didn’t do anything.”   

“The Congress High Command has been accused of interfering with regional leaders in the past. Fearing this, it may not have heeded to Selja’s complaints, despite her closeness to the Gandhis. But Hooda needed to be kept on a short leash. Local leaders can’t be allowed to get too powerful,” Bose remarked. 

He added that Rahul Gandhi should have followed “keener instincts” on how to strike a balance between the two. Take the example of Karnataka, where the chief minister Siddaramaiah and deputy chief minister SK Shivakumar belong to different castes –striking a natural balance by reigning each other in.

BJP's Strong Pitch Against Pre-Dominant Jat Rule Worked in its Favour

BJP was certainly the beneficiary of the infighting in Congress as well as a vociferous Jat campaign led by the party. In fact, the party sensed a possible swing in Dalit votes and capitalised on it in their poll campaign. 

During a rally in Tohana, Union Home Minister Amit Shah accused the Congress of being an “anti-Dalit party” and claimed, “The Congress always insulted Dalit leaders, be it Ashok Tanwar or sister Kumari Selja.” 

To mitigate the damage, the Congress brought prominent Dalit leader and fromer Sirsa MP Ashok Tanwar back to the party during a Mahendragarh rally on 2 October – days before election. But it was too late.  

“Though the Jat community swelled up Congress’ voteshare (by 12 percent), it did not translate into seats. However, BJP's strong pitch among other communities against a pre-dominant Jat rule worked in its favour,” Bose noted.

The BJP performs better in Lok Sabha elections when compared to Assembly elections; while for the Congress, its opposite.  

“In 2019, the BJP won all ten LS seats but was not able to reach the majority mark in Vidhan Sabha elections. In 2024 though, even when BJP’s seat share halved during LS polls, the party gained more seats in the VS elections,” Bose pointed out. 

If we compare performance 17 reserved seats in the Vidhan Sabha elections in 2019 and 2024, the BJP has wrested four seats from the Congress and its former ally Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janta Party (JJP). Although the Congress has won nine seats, the remaining eight have gone to the BJP. It must be underlined here voting patterns in the reserved seats don’t necessarily indicate how Dalits voted as there is large chunk of non-Dalit votes there too.  

Could Haryana Govt's Move to Allow Sub-Classification Among Dalits Helped BJP?

In August, the Supreme Court allowed states to sub-categorise SC communities for the purpose of reservation.  

Soon after this decision, the Nayab Singh Saini-led Haryana government announced that 20 percent of government jobs will be reserved for SC communities — of them, half will be set aside for deprived SC communities including Balmikis, Dhanaks, Khatik and Mazhabi Sikhs.  

This was announced on the recommendation of the state commission for SCs, which also reportedly proposed that if candidates belonging to deprived communities were not available, then the reservation should be considered for other SC communities, which include Chamars, Jatavs, Mochi, Raigars, Ramdasias, and Ravidasisas. 

Could this have swayed the Dalit vote in BJP’s favour? 

“The Dalit community is not a monolith, it has many sub-castes. The Balmikis, for instance, have traditionally voted for the BJP, except those in Uttar Pradesh.” 

According to a Lokniti-CSDS post-poll survey reported in The Hindu, voters belonging to other SC communities and Other Backward Classes favoured the BJP, while Jatavs favoured the Congress.  

“The Congress displayed lack of political acumen by failing to strike a balance among communities. It got over-confident, and BJP reaped the benefit,” Bose stated.