Haryana: How Narrow Margins of Victory in Multiple Seats Handed BJP a Third Term

The BJP's success came from focusing on specific groups, especially OBCs and Dalits.

Haryana CM Nayab Singh Saini with BJP supporters after winning the election.

(Photo: PTI)

The Haryana election results have surely taken a lot of pollsters, political commentators and observers by surprise, with the actual results contrasting sharply with the exit polls that predicted a significant victory for the Congress party.

However, the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) victory has not been by large margins; instead, it has been characterised by a series of narrow wins across various constituencies against the Congress. We analysed the trends closely from the data made available so far.

In Mahendragarh, where the Ahir (Yadav) community dominates, the BJP’s narrow win by 2,645 votes shows how crucial OBC votes were in this constituency. The Congress, while expecting to win over a large segment of OBCs, misjudged the BJP’s ability to retain the support of the Ahirs through its messaging on welfare and national security. This small victory margin indicates a split in loyalties among voters that the Congress party could not fully consolidate.

Assandh paints a similar picture, with the BJP narrowly winning by 2,306 votes. The Congress should have performed better with the large Jat electorate but failed to fully unite them, while the BJP capitalised on OBC and Dalit votes. The Jat vote fragmentation suggests that the Congress misread the shifting caste dynamics, allowing the BJP to gain enough support to hold the constituency. 

In Hodal, where Dalits make up a large part of the population, the BJP’s victory by 2,595 votes shows just how much they have been able to break into the Congress's traditional strongholds. Dalits have usually voted for Congress, so winning here is significant for the BJP. Their focus on welfare programs and targeted schemes for underprivileged groups clearly resonated with the voters. The close result is a signal that if the Congress party doesn’t adjust its message to appeal more to these voters, especially on economic issues, it risks losing them for good. 

Uchana Kalan is an even clearer sign of how unpredictable the electorate has become. This Jat-dominated constituency should have been an easy win for the Congress, especially with the dissatisfaction among farmers. Yet, the BJP managed to win by just 32 votes. This shows that although the Congress had a strong base of Jat support, the vote was split.  

The influence of regional parties like the JJP can’t be ignored, but the BJP’s ability to rally non-Jat voters, particularly OBCs and Dalits, played a crucial role in their narrow victory. The Congress seems to have over-relied on the Jat vote, assuming it would be enough, without realising that the community is far from unified. Old alliances aren’t enough anymore, and the BJP’s ability to appeal to a broader range of voters is what tipped the balance in their favour. 

The BJP’s performance across these constituencies shows a clear pattern: their success came from focusing on specific groups, especially OBCs and Dalits, while the Congress failed to either perform or adapt. In fact, they have been slow to realise that its traditional voter base is shifting, and the BJP has taken full advantage of that by targeting key sections of the electorate.

Below is a chart showing the caste-based voting distribution for BJP vs Congress across the four constituencies: 

Voting distribution in closely contested constituencies. 

(Authors' calculations)

It is important to realise that marginal wins in a mean vs median vote share analysis indicate that voter sentiment was divided this time in Haryana, but the BJP+ alliance had the more appropriate electoral strategy to surpass the Congress party in most constituencies.

Despite the BJP doing well, a pattern of marginal victories reflects that the Congress party was not far behind in terms of popular support. It also reveals that, while BJP had the upper hand, the political landscape in Haryana remains highly competitive, with future elections likely to see closely fought battles between the two national parties.

Comparison of vote share by alliance.

(Source: Election Commission of India)

The Congress' ability to win big in specific constituencies shows that the party still has a strong grip on rural Haryana, while the BJP's strategy of micro-targeting and broadening its appeal allowed it to win more seats overall, albeit by narrower margins. This graph highlights the contrast in voting patterns between urban and rural voters in Haryana during the elections.

Urban v rural seat distribution.

(Source: Authors)

The BJP performed strongly in urban areas, securing almost 20 seats, but struggled in rural regions. In contrast, Congress dominated the rural areas but had weak urban support.

Interestingly, many of BJP's smaller-margin wins came in constituencies located in the Jat belt, a region where political loyalty is often in flux.   Traditionally, this region has leaned towards Congress, but in recent years, the BJP has made inroads by appealing to non-Jat communities and addressing local development concerns. However, despite these efforts, the BJP’s victories in places like Pundri and Hodal were far from decisive.

The Congress party continues to face challenges in diversifying its leadership. Despite promising change in the Udaipur Declaration of 2022, the party hasn’t made much progress, leaving power in the hands of a few dominant leaders which has alienated key voter groups. In Haryana, internal conflicts, especially Bhupinder Hooda’s control, have further divided the party.

Unlike the BJP, Congress hasn’t effectively reached out to non-dominant communities, and its outdated campaign tactics have only worsened its performance in the state. In the Jat belt, BJP's strategy of reaching beyond traditional caste-based politics paid off, but just barely.

Ticket Distribution

In both the BJP and Congress, upper-caste Hindus comprised a large share of candidates, with 56.1 percent of the candidates coming from groups outside of the OBC, SC, and ST categories. Hindu OBCs accounted for 21.1 percent of candidates, SCs made up 18.9 percent, and Muslims represented just 3.9 percent, highlighting significant disparities in representation.

Among specific caste groups, the Jats stood out as the single largest group, comprising 24 percent of the candidates (43 out of 180). Other notable groups include the Chamars (20 candidates), the Brahmins (16), the Punjabis (15), the Gurjars (13), and the Yadavs (13).  

While the Jats are well-represented in both parties, the Congress fielded more Jat candidates (27) compared to the BJP (16). Additionally, the Congress provided higher representation to the Chamars, Gurjars, Brahmins, and Yadavs, whereas the BJP reduced its Jat candidates, dropping from 19 in 2019 to 16 in 2024.

The following graph provides a visual representation of vote share distribution among different alliances in the 2024 Haryana elections.

Distribution of seats by voting percentage range in Haryana.

(Source: Author)

There is still a lot left to unpack in analysing this assembly election not only amongst the Jawan, Kisan, and Pehelwan groups but with respect to beneficiary schemes, caste, class, and gender. It’s truly a surprising election, which the Congress party could have secured against the BJP, right after its Lok Sabha comeback.