Four-way Battle in Haryana: Decoding the Collapse of the AAP-Congress Alliance

On the other hand, the JJP-ASP alliance poses the risk of splitting the Opposition vote.

Rahul Gandhi and Arvind Kejriwal.

(Photo: Kamran Akhter/The Quint)

The much-hyped alliance between Congress and AAP (Aam Aadmi Party) has once again crumbled, a repeat of their failed attempt during the 2019 Lok Sabha election in Delhi. Despite political calculations and endless speculation, the two parties remain unable to forge a partnership that could alter the electoral dynamics.

As Haryana gears up for its polls in October, the state braces for a four-cornered contest.

Traditionally, the political battleground in Haryana has been dominated by the Congress party and the BJP, but this time, regional players like the JJP and the AAP are set to shake things up, raising the spectre of vote-splitting.

The Congress party, fresh from its resurgence in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, where it bagged five out of ten seats in Haryana after a dismal 2019 showing, is now riding a wave of renewed confidence. In stark contrast, the BJP finds itself mired in internal strife—leaders defecting, fractured alliances, and a deepening disconnect with key voter bases.

The Jat community, once a loyal BJP bloc, feels alienated, and the farmers’ simmering discontent with the party only fuels the fire. Meanwhile, Dalits and Muslims, historically on the fringes of BJP support, remain entrenched against the saffron party.

The BJP’s once-solid ground in Haryana is trembling. But what about the role of the Aam Aadmi Party?

How AAP is Placed in Haryana 

For AAP, Haryana holds strategic significance, despite its historically poor electoral performance in the state. Over the years, AAP has contested both Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections in Haryana but has struggled to make an impact. However, the 2024 Lok Sabha elections brought a glimmer of hope.

Forming an alliance with the Congress party, AAP contested just one seat, fielding former Rajya Sabha MP and Haryana Congress chief, Sushil Gupta. While the party managed to secure only four percent of the vote share, it’s the rise in support across urban centres like Gurgaon, Faridabad, and Hisar that stands out. This urban traction signals the potential for growth in the future.

Yet, the road ahead for AAP in Haryana remains fraught with challenges. With Arvind Kejriwal behind bars, the party’s capacity to fight on its own has been severely diminished. AAP’s Achilles’ Heel is its lack of organisational machinery in the state. Without strong local networks and on-ground presence, AAP’s prospects remain limited.

For now, AAP’s future in Haryana rests on its ability to leverage alliances and strengthen its presence beyond the urban pockets it has managed to influence.

Congress' Uphill Battle After Failed Alliance

An AAP-Congress alliance would have presented a unified front but its failure might weaken the latter's prospects in key urban pockets.

Urban voters in cities like Gurugram, Faridabad, and Panchkula have increasingly leaned towards non-BJP alternatives, viewing AAP as a credible option, especially with its focus on education, healthcare, and governance reforms in Delhi.

Therefore, AAP’s influence, although nascent in Haryana, has the potential to split anti-BJP votes. This division is likely to undercut Congress’s ability to consolidate urban voters who are seeking a change from the BJP’s policies but are now presented with fragmented Opposition choices.

The Congress, on the other hand, while strong in certain rural areas, struggles to attract the urban electorate, where AAP’s rhetoric of clean governance resonates more. The lack of unity between Congress and AAP may allow the BJP to retain its dominance in urban Haryana, capitalising on a divided Opposition.

Moving forward, Congress will have to recalibrate its urban strategy, either by building on hyper-local issues or finding new partners. For the urban voter, the absence of an alliance might ultimately create more confusion and limit the effectiveness of Opposition campaigns.

JJP-ASP Alliance

The alliance between Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) and the Azad Samaj Party (ASP), led by Dalit leader Chandrashekhar Azad, could significantly impact the election. In 2019, the JJP secured 10 out of Haryana’s 90 seats, later joining the BJP to form a coalition government. Now, with the ASP in the fold, the alliance could reshape the political dynamics, especially in rural, semi-urban, and Dalit-majority constituencies.

Haryana’s Dalit population comprises around 20 percent of the state’s electorate, making them a crucial voting bloc.

The ASP, led by Chandrashekhar Azad, has a strong appeal among Dalit voters, especially those who are disillusioned with traditional parties like the Congress party and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD). Combined with the JJP’s established rural Jat base, this alliance could create a significant third front in Haryana.

The JJP-ASP alliance also poses the risk of splitting the Opposition vote, particularly in closely contested constituencies with large Dalit and Jat populations.

If the alliance can successfully consolidate both Jat and Dalit votes, it may emerge as a kingmaker in post-election coalition negotiations. The challenge lies in uniting these diverse voter bases and presenting a cohesive platform.

Four-cornered Contest

Therefore, it is a four-cornered contest, with the BJP, Congress, JJP-ASP alliance, and AAP all vying for power. This fractured race is likely to benefit the BJP, as caste dynamics play a crucial role in Haryana’s politics.

Haryana’s Jat population, which makes up roughly 25-28 percent of the electorate, holds significant sway in rural constituencies. Traditionally, Jats have split their support between Congress and JJP, but some may lean toward AAP in urban areas.

This division of the Jat vote weakens any unified Opposition to the BJP.

With the Jat and Dalit votes splintered across multiple parties, the BJP could gain an edge by consolidating its core vote base. In a four-cornered contest, the split among Opposition parties will allow the BJP to win in closely contested seats.

(The author, a columnist and research scholar, teaches journalism at St. Xavier's College (autonomous), Kolkata. He tweets at @sayantan_gh. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)