Haryana Elections | Congress Headed for Narrow Win, BJP Falters: Opinion Poll

According to a survey conducted by People's Pulse, Congress could win 43-49 seats against BJP's 34-39.

Congress led by Bhupinder Singh Hooda is set to win a majority in Haryana, predicts an opinion poll

(Aroop Mishra/The Quint)

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The Congress may end up close to the majority mark in the upcoming Haryana Assembly elections, a recent opinion poll has predicted. According to survey agency People's Pulse, the Congress is predicted to get 43-48 seats, ahead of the BJP at 34-39 seats. A party needs 46 seats in the 90-member Haryana Assembly to form a government in the state.

The opinion poll also predicts 3-8 seats for 'Others', which includes regional parties like Indian National Lok Dal and Jannayak Janata Party as well as smaller national parties like Bahujan Samaj Party (which is in alliance with INLD) and Aam Aadmi Party.

(Aroop Mishra/The Quint)

In the 2019 Haryana elections, BJP had won 40 seats, Congress 31, JJP 10 and INLD won 1.

What Else Does the Survey Predict?

In terms of vote share, the People's Pulse survey predicts 44 percent votes for the Congress and 41 percent for the BJP. This is a massive gain for the Congress compared to the 28 percent votes it secured in 2019. Interestingly, it is also a gain for the BJP, which got 36 percent votes.

(Aroop Mishra/The Quint)

According to the survey, former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda of the Congress has a lead over current BJP CM Nayab Singh Saini.

The survey has observed that Congress has regained its traditional base among Jats and Dalits. They are also doing well in rural areas, with 65 percent of those who identify as farmers supporting it. as per the survey.

The survey also suggests that BJP's support among OBCs has declined and its tactic to appoint an OBC as CM may not have delivered the desired results.

According to the survey, the key issues for voters are "farm distress, unemployment, Agniveer scheme and basic livelihood" and that they are more likely to vote based on local factors, such as the popularity or unpopularity of respective MLAs.

Can the Picture Change?

• The vote share gap between the Congress and BJP is 3 percent. So if BJP does slightly better than predicted, it may have a shot at forming the government. Conversely if the gap increases, then it could even move towards a landslide win for the Congress.

• The survey report states that "there are at least 15 battleground seats" that could "turn either way depending upon the efforts and candidates of both parties".

• The number of independent MLAs could also increase as independent candidates are locked in very close contests on a number of battleground seats.