Kejriwal Resigns: Will Delhi CM's Gamble Pay Off?

Arvind Kejriwal addressing his supporters on Sunday.

(Photo: PTI)

In an unprecedented announcement, Arvind Kejriwal, after securing bail from the Supreme Court in the Delhi liquor policy case, declared that he would resign within 48 hours, stating that he would only return as Chief Minister if re-elected by the people of Delhi. This surprising yet strategic move comes just months before the scheduled Delhi Assembly election in February 2025, leaving Kejriwal with two key options: either appointing a successor within 48 hours or dissolving the assembly and calling for an early election.

Kejriwal’s decision appears to play on both emotional and victim narratives, positioning himself as a leader unjustly targeted by political rivals. However, it’s important to note that similar tactics failed during the 2024 general elections in Delhi, where AAP could not secure any seats despite attempts to evoke sympathy.

With a growing undercurrent of discontent against the AAP government, Kejriwal’s resignation could also backfire.

This resignation potentially hands the BJP a golden opportunity to shape the narrative, portraying Kejriwal as a leader running from corruption allegations. They could argue that his decision to step down is an attempt to divert attention from his legal troubles and place the onus on voters, framing the election as a referendum on his alleged misconduct.

Election Won’t Be Easy for AAP

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) finds itself in a challenging position as it approaches the next Delhi election. After 11 years in power, the weight of anti-incumbency is looming large. If Arvind Kejriwal is elected again, it would mark his fourth term as Chief Minister—a historic achievement, but one that will not come easily.

Discontent against AAP’s governance has been growing. Since Kejriwal’s legal troubles began, culminating in his time in jail while remaining Chief Minister, public perception has shifted. Many feel that governance has suffered, and several key issues remain unresolved. Despite the party’s strong grassroots presence, questions are being raised about its ability to deliver on promises.

Adding to this, the 2024 general election results in Delhi were a significant blow to AAP. Despite Kejriwal’s efforts and the party’s alliance with Congress, they failed to win any seats. The emotional appeal and victim narrative Kejriwal had hoped would resonate with voters fell flat. This misstep suggests that playing the same card again may not work in the upcoming election.

Moreover, the arrest of top AAP leaders—including former Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia, Health Minister Satyender Jain, and Sanjay Singh—has hurt the party’s image and disrupted governance. The promises and guarantees made by Kejriwal to the people of Delhi have not all been fulfilled, further fuelling dissatisfaction.

New CM Selection Won't Be Without Grave Risks

Kejriwal has been the face of AAP since its inception, and his leadership has defined the party’s governance model. Replacing him will not be easy. Any misstep in selecting the next chief minister could lead to internal friction and risk weakening the party’s image ahead of the upcoming Delhi elections. Kejriwal’s charisma and connection with the electorate are hard to replicate, making this leadership transition fraught with complexity.

Timing adds further pressure. With elections around the corner, AAP must quickly rally behind a new leader who can reassure both the party cadre and voters. The successor will have to contend with opposition attacks while ensuring AAP’s policies resonate with the electorate. This demands a leader who not only possesses strong administrative skills but also the political acumen to navigate Delhi’s turbulent political waters.

The process of selecting a new leader is likely to be contentious. AAP has several prominent figures with distinct visions for the party’s future. Managing internal dynamics and ensuring a smooth leadership transition will be crucial to avoid factionalism—something political rivals would quickly exploit.

Furthermore, Kejriwal’s resignation, seen by many as a strategic move, needs careful handling. His successor must manage the narrative of political persecution that Kejriwal has cultivated, to retain the party’s credibility.

Sunita Kejriwal as CM?

The potential appointment of Sunita Kejriwal as Delhi’s Chief Minister following Arvind Kejriwal’s resignation has sparked speculation and concern. While the move may seem like a natural progression within AAP, it risks sending the wrong message about dynastic politics—a charge that could undermine the party’s core values of meritocracy and transparency.

AAP has long positioned itself as a party committed to clean governance, free from the influence of political families. By positioning Sunita Kejriwal for the top job, AAP could alienate supporters who have rallied behind the party’s anti-establishment image. This decision could suggest that AAP is following in the footsteps of traditional political dynasties, a move that may tarnish its credibility among voters seeking a break from old-style politics.

Moreover, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would seize this opportunity to hammer AAP on dynastic politics—a criticism they frequently level at opposition parties. With the appointment of Sunita Kejriwal, the BJP would be handed fresh ammunition to question AAP’s democratic integrity. This could distract from the BJP’s own challenges and controversies in Delhi, shifting the narrative in their favour.

Additionally, the optics of Kejriwal’s spouse stepping into the chief ministerial role could create the perception of Arvind Kejriwal attempting to retain control through his family, drawing parallels to other political dynasties in India. This would erode public trust and weaken AAP’s standing, particularly among voters frustrated with nepotism in politics.

Manish Sisodia’s Possible Elevation

The speculation that Manish Sisodia might succeed Arvind Kejriwal as Delhi’s Chief Minister has stirred considerable debate within AAP and across the political spectrum. As Kejriwal’s long-time deputy and trusted ally, Sisodia has been instrumental in shaping key policies, particularly in education. Yet, his rise to the top post comes with both opportunities and significant challenges.

Firstly, Sisodia’s appointment would likely signal continuity for AAP’s governance. His strong track record in revamping Delhi’s education system showcases his administrative abilities. This continuity could reassure voters that AAP’s focus on public welfare will remain unchanged despite Kejriwal’s resignation.

However, stepping into Kejriwal’s shoes presents a formidable challenge. Kejriwal’s charisma and political agility have been central to AAP’s success, and Sisodia must swiftly define his own leadership style to avoid internal discord and maintain public confidence.

Secondly, Sisodia’s elevation could serve as a strategic response to the BJP’s attacks. With the BJP consistently targeting AAP over allegations of corruption, particularly in the liquor policy case, appointing Sisodia—who has faced his own legal battles—might project defiance and resilience. However, this could backfire, handing the BJP fresh ammunition to question AAP’s leadership and ethics.

For the BJP, Sisodia’s appointment could be both an opportunity and a risk. While it offers them grounds to continue their assault on AAP, if Sisodia manages to govern effectively and gain public support, it could neutralise their criticism and further entrench AAP’s hold on Delhi.

(The author, a columnist and research scholar, teaches journalism at St. Xavier's College (autonomous), Kolkata. He tweets at @sayantan_gh. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)