One Week to Go: Decoding the Polls and Voter Preferences in Swing States

Trump’s strengths are defence, immigration, and crime, while Harris leads in all nine swing states on healthcare.

Kamala Harris and Barack Obama. 

(Photo: X/@KamalaHarris)

With a week to go for the US presidential election, as per the latest polls, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris seem to be tied for the popular vote.

Polls by Redfield & Wilton Strategies show that the nine swing states, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which were pivotal during the 2020 elections, are likely to be decisive again in 2024, in determining who wins.

Polls by Polls by Redfield & Wilton Strategies.

(Source: Polls by Redfield & Wilton Strategies)

The poll reveals that Harris and Trump are tied in four states—Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—while Trump leads in Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina. On the other hand, Harris maintains an edge in Michigan and Minnesota, albeit narrowly.

In Arizona, Harris and Trump each secure 47 percent, marking no clear leader. Similarly, Nevada and Pennsylvania reflect a deadlock, with both candidates polling at 45 percent and 47 percent respectively. Wisconsin, too, shows an equal divide of 47 percent for each candidate. 

Trump, however, holds a five-point lead in Florida, where he is polling at 50 percent against Harris' 45 percent. In Georgia, Trump leads by two points (at 48 percent), while in North Carolina, his advantage is only one point (again at 48 percent against 47 percent). In Michigan, Harris leads by one point (at 46 percent) and by six points in Minnesota (at 50 percent). 

This data shows the fluidity of voter intentions. In the previous polls, Harris had slim leads in Wisconsin and North Carolina, while Trump led in Arizona and Nevada.

Key Issues for Voters in Swing States

The economy remains the most important issue, followed by abortion and immigration, according to the poll. Voters are particularly concerned about the cost of living, healthcare, and taxation.

In each state, a significant percentage of voters consider the cost of living to be "extremely important" in their decision, with between 67 percent and 77 percent of respondents rating it as such. The cost of healthcare follows closely, cited as an “extremely important” issue by 55 percent to 64 percent of voters.

Voters in four of the nine swing states trust Harris more than Trump on economic issues, while Trump is more trusted in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania voters are evenly divided, with 45 percent supporting each candidate on economic matters.  

Inflation, a top issue, is one area where Trump has historically held an advantage, but Harris is steadily closing the gap. In the latest poll, only Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin voters still trust Trump more than Harris to tackle inflation, while Harris leads in six states, including Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan. 

With respect to healthcare and abortion rights, Harris has a more pronounced lead. Swing-state voters in all nine states trust Harris over Trump on this issue, with a clear preference for her stance on abortion as well. These social issues are particularly potent in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, where recent changes to abortion laws have reignited public debate. 

On the other hand, Trump’s strengths are defence, immigration, and crime.

Voters in all nine swing states trust Trump more than Harris on immigration, an issue that remains a top concern in states like Arizona and Florida. Additionally, Trump leads on defence in eight of the nine states, with voters in these regions aligning more with the Republican stance on military and national security issues. 

Crime and policing are other issues that see a divide, with Trump leading in Florida and Wisconsin, while Harris holds the advantage in the remaining swing states. The margins, however, are very slim.

In the 2020 election, Joe Biden carried most of these key swing states, i.e., he won Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, by narrow margins. He won Arizona by just 10,457 votes, Georgia by 11,779 votes, and Wisconsin by 20,682 votes. Trump, meanwhile, won Florida and North Carolina by more substantial margins. 

Since then, voter loyalties may have shifted. The poll indicates that a higher percentage of Biden's voters are now leaning towards Trump than Trump's voters towards Harris. In the swing states, between nine percent and 13 percent of Biden voters now plan to vote for Trump, whereas only four percent to 10 percent of Trump’s supporters intend to switch their allegiance to Harris.

Trump has a higher retention rate among his 2020 voters than Harris does among Biden’s 2020 voters. Between 85 percent and 91 percent of Trump’s past voters intend to vote for him again, compared to 79 percent to 88 percent of Biden voters who say they will vote for Harris. 

Despite the clear preferences for either candidate, a small but potentially decisive percentage of voters remain undecided in some states. As many as eight percent of voters in Nevada are unsure of how they will vote, and in a tight race, their decisions could tip the balance. 

In addition to the presidential election, Senate races in seven of the nine swing states (Georgia and North Carolina being the exceptions) are also poised to influence the overall political landscape because these down-ballot races could energise voter turnout in key areas.

(Deepanshu Mohan is a Professor of Economics, Dean, IDEAS, Office of Inter-Disciplinary Studies, and Director of Centre for New Economics Studies (CNES), OP Jindal Global University. He is a Visiting Professor at the London School of Economics, and a 2024 Fall Academic Visitor to the Faculty of Asian and Middle Eastern Studies, University of Oxford. Aryan Gopalakrishnan is a Research Analyst with CNES and graduated from Jindal School of Government and Public Policy. This is an opinion article and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)