Two Weeks to Go. Who Are the Undecided Voters and Who is Winning Them Over?

These fence-sitters can determine the outcome of the contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

Donald Trump serving fries at McDonald's. 

(Photo: Reuters)

As all the major countrywide polls of likely voters suggest, the 2024 US presidential election is exceedingly tight and, therefore, too close to call. Consequently, the campaigns of both Trump and Harris are now doing everything they can to court the undecided voters.

These fence-sitters, most political pundits are claiming, can determine the outcome of the race. But who are these undecided voters, given the stark contrast between the two candidates and their platforms?

The answer to this question may come as a surprise to many. One such category constitutes the Hispanic voters in some crucial swing states such as Nevada, where one out of five voters is Hispanic. Their opinions are clearly divided.

Some are concerned about Trump’s highly inflammatory rhetoric about immigration especially from Central and Latin America. Others, however, are focused on the cost of living, especially inflation, and remain sceptical about Harris’ ability to tackle these related issues.

Apart from the Hispanic communities in swing states and elsewhere, young African American men, a demographic that had long been a reliable Democratic stronghold, is now wavering in its support for Harris. To shore up their support, none other than former President Barack Obama, recently called them out in a speech in that he delivered in Pittsburgh.

His speech, which has stirred its share of controversy, suggests that the Democratic campaign is genuinely concerned that a once-reliable segment of the electorate cannot be taken for granted.

These two constituencies are not the only ones giving the Harris campaign jitters. Yet another segment of the electorate which had been a Democratic stronghold is also threatening to defect. This group has been referred to as the “lunch pail” crowd — basically unionised blue-collar workers. For decades, this group had been staunchly Democratic, even though, for complex reasons, President Ronald Reagan had managed to peel some of them off.

During his first term, Trump talked a good line about helping the industrial working class. However, for all practical purposes, his rhetoric aside, he did little or nothing to improve their working conditions or their lives. Nevertheless, some from their ranks are gravitating toward Trump.

What explains their drift into his orbit? Despite his failure to address their concerns, Trump has persistently brought up the need to promote domestic manufacturing and has railed against American firms offshoring jobs. This rhetoric, though mostly hollow, has somehow resonated with segments of the industrial working class.

Given the shift that seems to be underway, the Harris campaign has undertaken a concerted effort to win back this constituency. To that end, it has emphasised her middle-class roots, the struggles that her mother (a single parent) faced in bringing up her two daughters, and her own working experience as a young woman.

Whether or not the highlighting of her personal experiences will sway these voters remains an open question. An unstated challenge that she faces is that some of these voters, who are predominantly male, white and lacking a college education, may privately harbour reservations about voting for a mixed-race woman.

What is not clear as yet is if, in the closing days of the campaign, she can somehow craft a message that strikes a chord with them.

The disadvantages that she faces in trying to bring them back to the Democratic column are twofold.

First, her campaign only started this summer when President Biden stepped down from his second presidential bid. Consequently, she had a limited span of time to formulate a message that would appeal to a range of possible constituencies. To some extent, she has faltered in fashioning such an appeal.

Second, unlike her, Trump is able and willing to make the most outlandish promises many of which are completely untethered from reality. She, however, cannot compete with Trump in this arena.

Consequently, as they make their closing arguments, her camp is faced with a distinct drawback. Trying to outbid Trump using questionable claims and dubious rhetoric would undermine her own standing with a host of other elements within the electorate.

The reasons why segments of the electorate remain undecided obviously vary to a very large extent. Yet their choices, to the extent that either presidential campaign can sway them in these final days, could well determine the outcome of the election.

(Sumit Ganguly is a Senior Fellow and directs the Huntington Program on US-India Relations at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)