Gujarat Exit Polls: Past Record Points to Off-the-Mark Predictions

Here’s a look at what the difference has been between exit polls and the final results in the past three years.

How accurate have exit polls been in the past?

(Photo: The Quint)

As the frenzy around the Gujarat elections subsided, the exit poll predictions saw Thursday evening, 14 December, light up with much debate and anticipation on who will win the race.

Even as the Election Commission prepares to announce the results on 18 December, most exit polls have predicted that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is set to rule Gujarat for the fifth time. But, how far can these numbers be trusted?

A cursory glance at eight major state Assembly elections since 2014 shows that exit polls have been wrong more than 50 percent of the time.

1. Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections 2017

Exit Polls Proven Wrong: The average exit poll results had given 180 seats to the BJP in the 403-member Uttar Pradesh Assembly, predicting a hung Assembly in the state.

However, the BJP went on to record a landslide victory, winning 324 seats, which was way over the magic number of 202.

(Photo: The Quint)

The NewsX-MRC poll had predicted that the BJP and its allies would win 185 seats, the Congress-Samajwadi Party combine would get 120 seats, and the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) would win 90 seats.

The India TV-C Voter exit poll predicted 155-167 seats for the BJP, 135-147 for the Samajwadi-Congress alliance, and 81-93 for the BSP.

The India Today-Axis poll, however, gave the BJP a comfortable majority of 251-279 seats.

2. Punjab Assembly Elections 2017

Exit Polls ‘AAP Rout’ Prediction Proven Wrong: While the exit polls did get the anti- BJP-Akali sentiment correct, the prediction on an AAP rout fell flat on its face. The Congress went on to win 77 seats in the state, well over the halfway mark of 59 seats.

India TV-C Voter exit poll had given the AAP 59-67 seats.

NewsX-MRC and News24-Chanakya had showed the latest entrant in national politics winning 51-55 seats in Punjab – predicting a hung Assembly.

But India Today-Axis predicted a Congress win with 62-71 seats.

3. Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections 2016

Exit Polls Proven Wrong as Amma Comes to Power: Exit polls had predicted defeat for the AIADMK. The Chanakya survey speculated victory for the DMK and gave the party 140 seats, while the AIADMK was expected to secure 90 seats. However, the results turned out to be quite different.

(Photo: The Quint)

ABP News predicted 132 seats for the DMK and 95 seats by the AIADMK. Contrary to all of these speculations, Jayalalithaa formed the government after winning 134 seats.

4. West Bengal Assembly Elections 2016

Exit Polls Speculations Almost Accurate About Didi’s Victory: West Bengal elections saw the victory of Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress with 211 seats out of a total of 294.

(Photo: The Quint)

5. Bihar Assembly Elections 2015

Nitish, Lalu Proved Exit Polls Wrong in Bihar: The Bihar elections were a special case in terms of exit polls. The survey channels and agencies were divided in their opinions. While some saw the RJD, the JD(U) and the Congress coalition coming to power, the others were sure of a BJP victory.

(Photo: The Quint)

6. Delhi Assembly Elections 2015

AAP Wave Washed Away Exit Polls Predictions: Exit polls had predicted about 35-45 seats for the Aam Aadmi Party in the Delhi Assembly elections. However, the India News-Axis survey had given the party about 53 seats.

(Photo: The Quint)

7. Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2014

Exit Polls and Final Results Consistent : The BJP secured 122 seats. News 24-Chanakya exit polls predicted 151 seats for the party. The ABP News-Nielsen had predicted that the BJP would win 127 seats.

(Photo: The Quint)

8. Haryana Assembly Elections 2014

Exit Polls Prediction Proven Right, Again: The channel and agency surveys predicted a win for the BJP in the Haryana Assembly elections. News 24-Chanakya gave 52 seats to the BJP, while ABP News-Nielsen gave it 46.

(Photo: The Quint)