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Former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan has suggested the government call people with proven expertise and capabilities, including from opposition parties, to deal with perhaps the greatest emergency being faced by the country since Independence following the coronavirus outbreak.
He also cautioned that driving everything from the Prime Minister's Office, with the same overworked people, may not be of much help.
“If, however, the government insists on driving everything from the Prime Minister's Office, with the same overworked people, it will do too little, too late.” he added.
He said economically India is probably facing its greatest emergency since Independence.
He, however, asserted that with the right resolve and priorities, and drawing on India's many sources of strength, it can beat this virus back, and even set the stage for a much more hopeful tomorrow.
Laying out steps the country could take to recover from the economic effects of the coronavirus outbreak, Rajan said the immediate priority is to suppress the spread of the pandemic through widespread testing, rigorous quarantines and social distancing.
"The 21-day lockdown is a first step, which buys India time to improve its preparedness. The government is drawing on our courageous medical personnel and looking at all possible resources – public, private, defence, retired – for the fight, but it has to ramp up the pace manifold”, he said, adding that the country will have to significantly increase the number of COVID-19 tests to reduce the fog of uncertainty as regards where the hotspots are.
Rajan, a professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, suggested that India should now plan for what happens after the lockdown, if the virus is not defeated.
Healthy youngsters, lodged with appropriate distancing in hostels near the workplace, may be the ideal workers for restarting such activities, Rajan pointed out.
Noting that in the meantime, India obviously needs to ensure that the poor and non-salaried lower-middle class, who are prevented from working for longer periods, can survive, he said, “Direct transfers to households may reach most but not all, as a number of commentators have pointed out, and the quantum of transfers seems inadequate to see a household through a month.”
“This does not mean that we can ignore our budgetary constraints, especially given that our revenues will also be severely affected this year.”
Noting that a ratings downgrade coupled with a loss of investor confidence could lead to a plummeting exchange rate and a dramatic increase in long-term interest rates in this environment, he said, “So we have to prioritise, cutting back or delaying less important expenditures, while refocussing on immediate needs.”
Many small and medium enterprises, already weakened over the last few years, may not have the resources to survive, Rajan said, adding, "Not all can, or should, be saved given our limited fiscal resources."
“The RBI Act will have to be changed to enable the Reserve Bank to undertake these transactions, and it will have to apply suitable haircuts to these portfolios to minimise its credit risk, but it will be a much-needed support to corporate borrowing.”
“The government should also require each of its agencies and public sector units, including at the state level, to pay their bills immediately, so that private firms get valuable liquidity,” Rajan said.
He concluded his blog by saying it is said that India reforms only in crisis.
“Hopefully, this otherwise unmitigated tragedy will help us see how weakened we have become as a society, and will focus our politics on the critical economic and healthcare reforms we sorely need,” Rajan said.
(The article has been published in arrangement with PTI)
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