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Video editor: Veeru Krishan Mohan
In an interview to The Quint, Chinmay Tumbe, an Economics professor at IIM-Ahmedabad and the author of ‘India Moving: A History of Migration’, explains why the nationwide lockdown implemented by the Modi government was poorly planned, and lists out suggestions for the Centre to help improve the plight of migrant workers.
The following are excerpts from the interview.
What are your thoughts on the exodus of migrants that we witnessed after the lockdown was announced, with many of them travelling hundreds of kilometres on foot?
Chinmay Tumbe: I think it's just been a terrible oversight. If you see the actions taken by the Indian government, we were much more sensitive to international migration and travel. I think we should have given some time to migrant workers to go back home.
It's fairly common sense that if you announce a lockdown and assure only supplies are there but no assurances on wages, no assurances on other stuff like accommodation, a huge part of India's circular migrant workforce is going to get very frightened and will try and get home. And if there's no transport option, they're going to walk. That's exactly what we've seen.
Chinmay Tumbe: The government realised its mistake after four days, and on 29 March, they came out with a new circular and a new order, providing assurances to migrant workers to not go home. But the fear (among migrant workers about their immediate well-being) is still there.
Hopefully, some lessons are being learned right now for future crises. If India is ever faced with such a situation in the future, there should be a clear manual guide in place. That is if you're bracing yourself for lockdown, a) keep migrant workers' concerns right up on the priority list, and so on.
Why did so many migrant workers undertake such long walks home instead of remaining in the cities?
Chinmay Tumbe: One has to understand the psychology of the circular migrant worker. The person comes from a village or a small town to a big city because there's economic security in the city in terms of wages.
But the social security, and there are two kinds of social security – the family, and of course, government-provided social security which comes in terms of the PDS, ration cards. Now, all of that is in the source.
Any form of private or public social security is back home but economic security in terms of jobs is in the city.
That's a very simple psychology to understand and that's what's made millions of these migrant workers move.
India was already reeling from a jobs crisis. How will the economic fallout of the coronavirus crisis further impact unemployment?
Chinmay Tumbe: It's just catastrophic. Because now, even exports have been hit massively. Unemployment was anyway at a 45-year high before this particular event. So, what we're going to see is a massive spike in joblessness.
Trade export centres like Tirupur and Surat, which depend on international trade, have been hit badly.
Because otherwise, you're just looking at human misery, poverty levels spiking up (which has not really happened in a long time), you're going to see unemployment levels spike up.
The government just needs to be spending much more in the coming months, and probably the next two years.
What measures would you suggest the government undertake in order to address the adverse economic impact of this crisis, on migrant workers?
Chinmay Tumbe: What should be done in the immediate few weeks? I think India has a great opportunity to finally leverage a universal social security scheme. This is called the ‘One Nation, One Ration Card’ scheme, which is scheduled to be brought out by the Ministry of Consumer Affairs and so on in June 2020.
It's been announced. Some pilot schemes have been run. It should be released in June. In fact, now people are saying it might be postponed because of the current crisis.
I think it should be brought forward. I think in April itself, we should start a massive rollout of this One Nation, One Ration Card scheme. Precisely because we know for a fact that so many people are stuck in other parts of India.
Now, de facto, of course on the ground, people are saying that irrespective of whether you have a ration card or not, you'll get access to food. I think this is a great time to roll out this policy in full measure so that whatever gaps one sees can be rectified in the coming months.
Chinmay Tumbe: This migrant crisis is not over. For those migrants who are still there, ensure that the orders which were announced on 29 March are fully implemented. It's very tough to implement.
Ensure that the wages for the month should not be deducted. I think that's a very, very important thing that has to be communicated to employers.
And most importantly, the rental accommodation waiver which has been announced by the government, which means that landlords should be waiving off one month's rent for migrant workers.
I think these would really be some solid steps towards alleviating the plight of migrant workers.
Right now, the needs are really on the ground level. It's one thing to say direct cash transfer benefits and so on, but people don't want to walk to banks without transport, get the money and so on. They just want to have access to assured food supplies for the day. I think that should be the task of the district-level administrations for the next two weeks of this particular lockdown.
And it should be given to workers irrespective of whether they hold their ration cards, right?
Chinmay Tumbe: Absolutely. That's what the Delhi government has done; that's what Telangana is claiming, that irrespective of who you are, we will take care of you. And this is what should have been in the lockdown speech. That would have reduced the need for instant flight.
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