Gujarat Exit Polls: Congress Set To Retain Number 2 Spot, Losing Ground to AAP

Exit polls have predicted significant gains for the AAP in terms of seat and vote share.

2022 Gujarat Assembly elections: Exit polls predict BJP victory, Congress expected to secure number two position. 

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Exit poll results for the 2022 Gujarat Assembly elections have unanimously predicted a landslide victory for the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 182 seats assembly.

However, the big question in this election was always around who will be number two.

Exit polls have predicted that the Congress may pip the AAP to the number two spot but suffer a steep drop in vote and seat share.

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) though at a distant third is predicted to main significant gain in terms of its vote share.

What Does AAP's Rise in Vote Share Indicate?

In 2017, BJP got a vote share of 49.1 percent and the Congress on number two position secured a vote share of 41.4 percent.

Comparing it with the 2022 exit poll results, it is evident that the BJP's vote share hasn't fluctuated much, while that of the Congress has gone down by 10-15 percent.

Interestingly, AAP is expected to go from a vote share of 0.1 percent in in 2017 to 12-19 percent in 2022.

This clearly indicates that AAP is occupying a significant part of the opposition space in the state.

As per the ABP-C Voter exit poll, the party is expected to make maximum gains in South Gujarat winning 1-3 seats with a vote share of 27 percent. South Gujarat comprises of constituencies such as Surat, Navsari, Valsad, Bharuch, and Bardoli.

Party's state convenor Gopal Italia is in contest from Katargam seat in Surat.

How Much Ground is Congress Losing?

All exit polls predict a drop in Congress party's vote share.

With figures indicating AAP's growth at the grand old party's expense, exit polls differ in the scale of loss the Congress is expected to suffer.

As per the India Today - My Axis India exit poll, the party is expected to win 16-30 seats with a vote share of 26 percent, whereas, ABP-C Voter poll predicted 31-43 seats with a vote share of 33 percent.

Voting in Gujarat happened in two phases. Phase one, held on 1 December saw a voter turnout of 63.31 percent and phase two, held on 5 December recorded a turnout of 50.51 percent.

The counting of votes will happen on 8 December.