Israeli PM Naftali Bennet and de facto ruler of the UAE, Prince Muhammad bin Zayed, created history when the latter hosted Bennet on an official visit to Abu Dhabi. Long treated as a pariah state by Arab nations, Egypt was the first Arab nation to sign a peace deal with Israel, known as the Camp David accords in 1978. Later, Jordan also signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1994. Egypt and Jordan were ostracised by other Arab nations for breaking ranks. Later, in 1993, the Oslo Accords were signed between Israel and Palestine, which led to the PLO recognising Israel and renouncing terrorism. The Palestinian self-governing authority, the Palestinian Authority, was also established under the leadership of the legendary Yasser Arafat, to govern Palestinian territories in the West Bank and Gaza, till such time negotiations on permanent status would continue to decide borders, the status of refugees and Jerusalem.
Iran's Nuclear Programme
These permanent status issues have remained unresolved to this day, while the ground situation and the global order has undergone seminal changes. Though Israeli settlements were withdrawn from Gaza, more and more Jewish settlements have been built in the West Bank. Meanwhile, Palestinian polity split into two factions – the PA and Hamas – with the latter in control of Gaza and the PA governing the West Bank from Ramallah. In Israel, the Labour Party and its allies lost ground to the right-Wing Likud Party, and no progress could be made on the final status issues. There has been recurring violence between Israel and Palestinians, particularly rocket attacks from Gaza, which targeted Israeli towns. Israel retaliated by bombing and strafing Gaza, causing destruction of life and infrastructure.
This impasse was broken by the Abraham Accords in 2020. These accords are in the form of a joint statement between Israel, the UAE and the US. The accords were extended to Bahrain and effectively normalised relations between Israel and the two Arab states. Later, Morocco and Sudan also joined the agreement. Oman has had ties with Israel without formal diplomatic ties. Though a part of the understanding on the Abraham accords, Saudi Arabia stayed her hand and kept away. Jordan also joined in a tripartite agreement with Israel and the UAE. The Abraham Accords are so named because of the shared belief in Judaism and Islam in prophet Abraham, who is called Ibrahim in Arabic.
The changes that made rapprochement possible are the rise of ISIS in Iraq-Syria, Iran’s role in regional theatres, and the prospect of Iran going ahead with her nuclear weapons programme.
When former US President Donald Trump walked out of the Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the possibility of Iran’s nuclear weapons programme acquired renewed focus.
Though President Biden’s administration has joined the current negotiations in Vienna to revive the nuclear deal, the Iranian nuclear shadow worries the Gulf states. Iran is Israel’s sworn enemy, has never recognised Israel, and had vowed to wipe Israel off the map. While this is rhetoric, Iran has been accused by Israel of supporting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, which have mounted rocket attacks on Israel.
Iran’s Threat to 'Wipe Out' Israel
Iran has also been accused of supporting the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who are fighting the legitimate government, which is supported militarily by Saudi Arabia. Moreover, Iran is a Shia country and is blamed for subversion in the Sunni Arab Gulf states. Bahrain is a Shia majority country with a Sunni monarchy, and Saudi Arabia’s oilfields are in the Shia majority Eastern province. Iran has been accused of instigating protests in Bahrain and bomb blasts in Saudi Arabia. The US has a military base in Bahrain and her headquarters of the Eastern Command are in Qatar. Iran enjoys good relations with Qatar, which has bucked the trend of the other Gulf states and was even shut out of the regional organisation, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), for some time. Qatar has deep pockets and has funded organisations that are inimical to the interests of several Arab countries. Qatari-funded Al Jazeera TV channel has been critical of other Arab nations, which has annoyed several Arab governments.
Iran has become the raison d’etre for these new geostrategic alignments. Israel has the technological and military capabilities to help Gulf Arab countries shore up their defences and intelligence infrastructure to counter Iranian subversion. Israel has a proven ability to counter new technological threats such as drones, which are being increasingly used by Iran. Gulf Arab nations are no longer willing to eschew ties with Israel solely for the Palestinian cause. They see Iran as the bigger and imminent security threat. They have started putting greater priority on their own national security interests. The Palestinians are naturally unhappy and are unable to influence their stalled negotiations with Israel. They see Israel’s rapprochement with the Gulf and other Arab nations as a negative development for their cause, as it removes the boycott pressure on Israel.
For Israel, Iran is the primary security threat because of her proclaimed animosity towards it. What adds a potent edge to Iran’s threat is her vow to wipe out Israel from the map.
Iran’s potential acquisition of nuclear weapons will make Israel subject to nuclear blackmail. Israel is the only country in the region that has nuclear weapons, albeit undeclared and unrecognised as a nuclear weapon state and a non-signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Iran's Fiery Diatribe
Israel has thus staunchly opposed the JCPOA and wants Iran de-nuclearised completely. This is easier said than done, since Iran, as a signatory to the NPT, has the right to conduct peaceful nuclear activity. Israel has hence proposed setting up joint defence structures with Gulf Arab nations and has signed several agreements with the UAE. To balance these initiatives, the UAE has kept her lines of communications open with Iran by sending her senior national security official to Iran for discussions.
Iran, predictably, reacted with a diatribe against Israel. Its Foreign Ministry spokesman said the visit would strengthen the fake regime’s “destructive and seditious presence” in West Asia. The diatribe added that welcoming the Prime Minister of an illegitimate regime, which has been the root cause and creator of insecurity, tension and warmongering for more than 70 years in the territory of Arab and Muslim countries, will linger in the historical memory of the Palestinian people, regional nations and the freedom-seeking people of the world.
The spokesperson’s rhetorical symphony concluded by saying that the Zionist regime is the arch-foe of the Islamic world and Arab countries and no normalisation move can undermine the lofty cause of Palestine.
For India, these developments do not undermine her interests in pursuing independent ties with all countries in the region. India is not going to take sides but will pursue her own interests without any egregious steps that will upset India’s cooperation with individual countries in the region. If circumstances change drastically, then India will, no doubt, review her options.
(The author is a former Secretary in MEA and a former Ambassador; he has served in Indian Embassies in Cairo, Jeddah and Tel Aviv; he is a founder Director of DeepStrat and a Visiting Fellow at ORF, Delhi. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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