From Trade to Defence, India & UK Need Each Other Now More Than Ever

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson came to India and left in a burst of bonhomie and with an impressive handful of agreements. There is enough to make the embattled Prime Minister a happy man, the visit to the JCB factory in Gujarat notwithstanding, which inevitably raised hackles in the UK about rising “Islamophobia’. That, thanks in a large part to former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan, is the flavour of the year. But there was more to the visit than the usual bilateral goodies. It could prove to be a truly strategic shift if all of this comes through. Ironically, the thrust behind these rapid and possibly breakthrough changes is the war in Ukraine.

The Relationship Is Rather Jolly

It is as well to understand that the earlier equations of the former coloniser and a vulnerable member of the Commonwealth have changed out of recognition. India is the second-largest investor in the UK after the US, investing in some 99 projects. And this is likely to rise as another $1-billion worth of investments were announced, which will create around 11,000 jobs. That’s nice for Boris.

The take-home present was obviously the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) that was being hurried along as a Diwali gift. There is OneWeb, a UK company that the government has invested in, signing a historic contract for satellite launches with New Space India Limited, the commercial arm of the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO). The idea is to put the UK at par with rapidly evolving space technologies. The raft of deals signed between the private sectors is also impressive. All of that is possible because the UK is still the fifth-largest economy in the world at about 2.2 trillion pounds, though there have been warning signs of recession, underlined by the pressure of the COVID-19 pandemic and now the ‘Ukraine effect’.

Both Countries Are Suffering

Small wonder then that Boris was willing to let the issue of India’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine war slide past as he signed up on investment. Second, all of this is also doable because the Indian economy is projected to grow some 8.3 per cent.

Again, inflation is a serious problem not just due to the rising fuel prices but also fertilizer shortages because of the tumbling Ukraine supplies. Subsidies have since risen by almost 60 per cent.

In short, both countries are suffering, and both need succour. It’s not just India signing a burst of FTAs. It’s the UK, too, signing up Singapore, Australia and New Zealand, with Israel, Mexico and GCC countries in the pipeline. In other words, the Ukraine crisis may unite, not divide. Everyone is frightened of going broke.

The Defence of the Realm

Then there’s the defence sphere. The roadmap for 2030, signed in May 2021, is extensive in all spheres but is particularly interesting in what it says about both countries’ priorities. It identifies the promotion of freedom of navigation and open access, improved maritime cooperation through a ‘partnership’ with a new Maritime Dialogue, grey and dark shipping information-sharing and mechanisms for operational coordination.

There are references to improvements in logistics training, more military exercises, et cetera, all of which point to the ‘western’ Indian Ocean. Since then, there has been the October 2021 visit of the UK’s Carrier Strike Group (CSG), the first tri-service exercise between the two, the inclusion of the UK’s Liaison Officer in India’s Information Fusion Centre, and the first annual UK-India Maritime Dialogue. Not bad going.

The joint statement after Boris’s visit referred to cooperation between the UK’s Defence Science & Technology Laboratory and India’s Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO), including on electric propulsion; “robust defence industrial collaboration” (which hopefully refers to the private sector); manufacturing a range of defence equipment, systems, and spare parts, notably for use not only in India but other countries.

Strengthening of the Indian Ocean Theatre

The UK seems to be ready to “collaborate” on producing even Modern Fighter Aircraft and Jet Engine Advanced Core Technology. Aircraft engines are essentially the holy grail of defence capability, which seems to be backed by the UK announcement of an “open general export license” to facilitate technology engagement, and an opportunity for India to participate in the UK’s aviation and naval shipbuilding programmes.

All this points to a strengthening of the Indian Ocean theatre. The UK is not part of the Quad, which has the US, India, Japan and Australia. But with AUKUS, which brought together the US, Australia and the UK in a submarine deal, and now this, it may well be. What’s more, this is a level of cooperation that could beat the Russian model hollow, especially when it is considered that the UK defence industry is enmeshed with that of the US. And that was probably the whole point of the visit.

Powering Into the Future

There’s more, particularly in the area of green energy. This is not about both leaders being environmentally committed. Green energy is big money. The International Atomic Energy estimates this to be about a $100-trillion investment opportunity. The two sides have identified, among other areas, offshore wind, energy efficiency and storage and electric mobility, and are seeking to explore joint work on green hydrogen. This had been identified years ago by Niti Aayog as a core area. Today, big names like Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani are in plans to make India a green hydrogen hub. The Indian Oil Corp Ltd, the country’s largest oil refiner, is partnering with clean energy producers, including Larsen & Toubro.

Then, there’s the intriguing reference to “a renewed and strengthened UK-India Nuclear Cooperation Agreement”. That could indicate the supply of reactors and their technology.

The UK is the second-largest exporter of nuclear reactors, Russia being the first. Rosatom’s ability to deliver on India’s planned nuclear reactor development is now under doubt, and that could be a win for the UK. It will also mean annoying the US considerably. More than a decade after the Civilian Nuclear Cooperation Agreement of 2008, not a single reactor has been built.

But it will also mean a reduction of self-reliance in an area where India has real expertise. In another indicator of how much things have changed, the statement also notes shared interest in “advancing nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation”. Time was when India would have been at the receiving end of a non-proliferation lecture.

The Spoilers

All this makes for a rather remarkable bilateral relationship in the future. But the spoilers are in the UK itself. The strong backlash against the JCB visit amid the Jahangirpuri demolition drive was only an indicator of the things to come, as Muslim groups and some liberal constituencies in the UK can be expected to protest against the government’s alleged action against minorities.

Then there is a paper by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) that identified India as a possible source for spares for the Russian military, which raises the usual ‘concerns’. If there is such a line, Delhi must certainly seal it. But it seems like a rather shallow rock to erode the relationship.

The visit also recognised the need to deal with extremist elements like the Khalistanis, but the problem arises from those within Parliament like Preet Gill, rather than the noisemakers. Worse still is the similar influence of a strong Pakistani diaspora who will try to sabotage the whole deal at a time when Prime Minister Johnson is on a sticky wicket.

Also, don’t forget that Chinese investment in the UK rebounded by 44 per cent. If London is worried about supplies for Russia coming in through an Indian backdoor, the possibility of Chinese tech slipping in is equally likely.

All in all, however, bilateral relations are likely to get a makeover, which has the potential to further change the already fluid policies that Delhi is being forced to follow as the world zig-zags through severe political turbulence. Nothing is certain, except that it’s going to be a rocky ride.

(Dr Tara Kartha is a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS). She tweets @kartha_tara. This is an opinion article and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)