Announcement of the state Assembly elections for five states has set in motion hectic political activity across the affected states. The election rallies would commence in a few days, which would keep the local police forces on their toes. The state intelligence agencies would be busy monitoring the security situation to prevent any terror strike during this period. The responsibility, close to polling, would be that of the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF), however, the other central forces would be involved, though indirectly.
AFSPA, An Electoral Issue
Amongst the states facing elections are Manipur and Punjab, two states with security-related problems. The Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) continues to be enforced in Manipur since 1980 and in the last few years, Punjab has witnessed Pakistan-sponsored terror strikes.
One of the electoral issues in Manipur is repealing the AFSPA. Any human rights violation or even an accidental death by the security forces in the run-up to the elections could become a rallying point for those opposing the AFSPA. Similarly, a terror strike in the same period could benefit those supporting it. The insurgent groups operating in the area are anti-elections and would invariably give a call for the boycott as well.
The army and Assam Rifles (AR) deployed for security, therefore, have a major role to play in the state. For them, the period leading up to the elections implies ensuring security of the population and preventing terror groups from disrupting the election process, while being extra vigilant to avoid accidental casualties. Whether AFSPA remains or not is a judicial or Central government decision. For them, one mistake on either side could tilt the balance.
Also Read: Would Delhi Dither on AFSPA If it Had Been in Force in UP, Bihar?
Half-Baked OROP & Terror Attacks
Punjab has been affected by terror strikes from Pakistan in Gurdaspur and Pathankot. It is equally affected by drugs being smuggled in from across the border. The opposition has always targeted the government of the day for its failures to prevent smuggling and providing necessary security. A terror strike at this stage can change the agenda for the opposition. The BSF deployed on the border would need to be extra vigilant. Further, the infiltration of terrorists from J&K in Punjab is also a possibility. Therefore, some additional security measures would be needed by the army and the BSF.
While local agendas normally dominate the discourse in the state elections, issues concerning the armed forces would be at the forefront, mainly in the states of Punjab, Uttarakhand and UP, which have a large Ex-Service Men (ESM) population and also the serving soldiers and their extended families. The army is still awaiting the announcement about their revised pay under the Seventh Pay Commission, while the perks have been announced for all the other services. This has disillusioned the serving community.
The veteran community is equally affected with a half-baked OROP. There have been no inputs on the already-submitted Reddy Commission report. The army chief recently requested the veterans to quit their agitation and accept the OROP as announced by the government. With the proclamation of the elections, the code of conduct has been enforced preventing the government from making any announcement.
Also Read: Pathankot, a Year On: Questions on Infiltration Still Unanswered
Army’s Top Gun in Electoral Fray
In Punjab, an ex-army chief is in the fray amongst other ESM who would be joining the political process. The Indian Ex-Servicemen League (IESM), which spearheaded the OROP agitation in Delhi last year, has split and a group headed by the ex-IESM leader Major General Satbir Singh, now termed as the United Front of Ex-Servicemen (UFESM) announced its support for the Congress in the forthcoming polls. These two issues have been the focus of debate at every level within the serving and the ESM fraternity.
Very few retired senior army officers in earlier days had participated in elections and much less formed part of the government. A known minister in recent times was Major General BC Khanduri, who served as the Minister of Surface Transport with a cabinet rank in the Vajpayee government, as also as the chief minister of Uttarakhand. General VK Singh, also an ex-army chief, now a junior minister in the present government, is the recent trendsetter.
Varied views have been dominating military social media networks on the participation of General JJ Singh, an erstwhile army chief and governor of Arunachal Pradesh, in the forthcoming elections. While few consider it as his democratic right, most feel it is letting down the dignity of the office he once occupied. To be an MLA, after having been a chief, even if he wins, for many, is a let down. Junior ranking officers and others participating is always acceptable to the military community.
Also Read: ‘Modi Wants OROP, What’s Coming in the Way?’ Gen Khanduri Dissents
Veterans’ Impact on Polls
The splitting of the IESM and the decision of the breakaway faction – UFESM – to support the Congress is another hotly-debated topic. Many opine that it was the Congress which ignored the OROP for over four decades, is now raking it up – since the party is no longer in power – only to gain votes. Supporting it at the state-level would bring no benefits to the ESM. The respect which the IESM had once garnered as an apolitical organisation, has now vanished. The first agitation was a resounding success with massive ESM participation.
It was this agitation which compelled the government to take action on OROP. In one swoop, General Satbir Singh and his cronies have broken the trust and faith which the ESM community had in them. Never again would the IESM rise to the level as in mid- 2016. Whether the support provided by the UFESM would benefit the Congress is another issue, but it has damaged the faith and trust of the veteran community towards its leaders.
The military cannot be ignored by any political party, as it forms a substantial vote bank in select states and could be a game-changer, if properly handled. The splitting of the IESM and a faction participating in the elections, has hurt the sentiments of senior veterans, which could impact the support it expects. While the armed forces would not be directly involved in the elections, it could indirectly affect results in some states.
(The author is a retired army officer based in Lucknow. He can be reached @kakar_harsha. This is a personal blog and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
Also Read: Will the Govt Remember OROP After Demonetisation? Asks a Soldier
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)