The new year has dawned and the new chiefs of the Army and the Air force have assumed their appointment. However, 2016 will leave behind a legacy for being an eventful year that changed India’s outlook.
December 2015, as a prelude, saw the boldest outreach for peace as Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Lahore to wish Nawaz Sharif on his birthday.
However, the new year commenced with a terror strike on the Pathankot airbase, which suddenly brought Indo-Pak relations to its lowest ebb in years. India, in retaliation, immediately pulled back from its ongoing peace initiative. It tried to re-ignite the process only once, by allowing the Pakistani team investigating the strike to visit India and Pathankot. However, with Islamabad failing to take any visible action, New Delhi withdrew from peace talks and launched a diplomatic offensive to isolate Pakistan.
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Kashmir Unrest and the Balochistan Card
The death of Burhan Wani and the subsequent four months of turmoil in the Valley, spearheaded by the separatists on Pakistan’s behalf, only added to the woes of the security agencies.
It enabled Pakistan to enhance infiltration. Presently, the Valley has the maximum number of militants inducted in recent years. It was evident that the protesters were being paid. The unrest paralysed the state government and was a testing time for the centre, the fallout of which continues till date.
In the middle of the Kashmir unrest, during his Independence Day speech, the Prime Minister openly raised the issue of Balochistan and Gilgit Baltistan, conveying that India can and would support Pakistan’s internal strife, if it did not desist from interfering in Kashmir. It created ripples in both Pakistan and China as the CPEC transits through the region. Both nations balked. It also gave Pakistan a new reason to blame India for its internal problems, which it continues to do even today.
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Uri Changed the Narrative
The arrest of Kulbhushan Jadhav, an ex-naval officer, in Balochistan in May and his portrayal as an Indian spy found few takers. While Pakistan compelled him to read a so-called confessional statement, implicating the RAW as the agency fermenting trouble in the state, it had negligent international impact.
Subsequent internal comments within Pakistan indicated doubts on the veracity of the statements implicating India. Pakistan has still not provided consular access to India and holds him in isolation. It will continue to use this card at regular intervals, including approaching the UN.
Uri and the counter-strike across the Line of Control (LoC) changed the Indian mindset towards retaliation to Pakistan’s misadventures. It also conveyed to the world that India would no longer seek only diplomatic action against Pakistan but could retaliate militarily at a time and place of its own choosing.
It put Pakistan on the defensive. They denied the strike, to save face locally, as they could never contemplate and retaliate in kind, as India does not house anti-Pakistan terror groups. It changed the Indian response from passive to active. Till date, India continues to draw political mileage from this strike.
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China Continues to Play Spoilsport
The G-20 and BRICS summit witnessed India raising the bogey of Pakistan as a sponsor of terror but the same was never a part of the final statement, mainly due to China’s resistance and insistence. China’s support and proximity to Pakistan was further evident, when it refused to endorse India’s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and repeatedly blocked the UN from designating Masood Azhar as an international terrorist.
The inauguration of the Gwadar port and the CPEC only brought the two nations closer. The projects conveyed the message that China would always provide Pakistan with every form of support and protection from India’s diplomatic actions. Russia’s efforts to move closer to China and Pakistan further complicated India’s efforts to manoeuver diplomatic ties.
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Will Ties with Pakistan Return to Normal?
Demonetisation had an immediate impact on militancy and internal security. The Kashmir agitation came to a standstill, proving the fact that the protesters were being paid to participate in agitations. The induction of militants dropped as there was no fake currency to fund their activities.
The Nagrota attack coincided with the changeover of Pakistan’s army chief. Internally, it established the vulnerability of military establishments unless technology is introduced to enhance security preparedness.
India did not retaliate, allowing Pakistan’s new army chief to indicate whether he would control terror groups operating from their soil. The LoC, which was active post the surgical strike till the changeover, has again witnessed a period of relative calm after the discussion between the two DGMOs. This indicates that the future may bring some semblance of peace, provided the Pakistan army chief sticks to his priority of eliminating internal terror groups.
The Heart of Asia conference in Amritsar in December saw Pakistan being humiliated for the last time in 2016. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani personally took on Pakistan for supporting the terror groups. The insult was complete when he rejected Pakistan’s offer of aid. Indian diplomacy was on the ball, when the final statement mentioned Pakistan-sponsored terror groups. It firmly placed India as a major player in Afghanistan.
2016, the Year That Changed India’s Outlook
The government announced the new Army and Air force chiefs in the last fortnight of the year. While the Air force chief was a straight-forward announcement, there was a controversy over the appointment of the Army chief. The Indian and Pakistan Army chiefs have both served in the same UN mission, where they commanded brigades in different sectors.
To summarise, 2016 indicated a change in India’s outlook and took India and Pakistan further away from peace. It also highlighted the constant support Pakistan would continue to draw from China, adding to India’s woes. The end of the year brought forth some semblance of peace along the border. Finally, India is firmly in the driver’s seat in Afghanistan, as we move into 2017. If 2016 is any indicator, there are unlikely to be major changes in Indo-Pak or Indo-China relations. India may continue to face hostile neighbours whose nefarious activities will only increase by the day.
(The author is a retired army officer based in Lucknow. He can be reached @kakar_harsha. This is a personal blog and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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