United Kingdom’s exit from the EU through the referendum route, being referred to as BREXIT, presents a huge learning opportunity from a diplomatic perspective. It is evident from the aftermath that the referendum lacked the political wisdom and the perceived goals were strategically incited. Some of the key learnings from the historically important episode are summarised below:
Uneven Distribution of Benefits of Globalisation
Brexit was the direct consequence of disparate distribution of the benefits of globalisation and economic liberalism. A direct co-relation was observed between the regions opting to leave the European Union and regions with less educated and under-privileged demographic character.
Analysts have argued that unregulated globalisation has led to stagnant income for the lower and the middle class, who are most severely affected due to any unexpected economic modulation or global crisis. This leads to disenchantment with the establishment and the anger caused is moulded into anti-immigration sentiments and intense xenophobia. Thus, other nations should work on the growing economic disparities in their respective societies as it has direct implications on their policies.
Wave of ‘Nationalism’
It was already established even before the referendum was held that nationalist sentiments would guide the outcome. The growing disenchantment among the lower and the middle class with the government led to a rise in nationalism, xenophobia and prejudice.
The societies that were affected by globalisation focused on immigration, as it was the most direct change which they could observe, and may have lost jobs to people not ‘native’ to their nations.
This was further fuelled by an extreme right-wing politicians who wasted no time in cashing upon the anger of a particular section of British society.
A similar trend is observed in the upcoming election in the United States as Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominess, continues to ride on anti-immigration and hate rants. This should be a point of caution as it is evident that identity supersedes economics since people feel unsafe in an era of uncertainties and lost opportunities.
David Cameron’s Gamble
In the past few years, “shoot first and talk later” has become the new trend, which is evident from the invasion of Iraq by the US and its allies, or the overthrow of dictators such as Saddam Hussein. No thought was spared to the effects of war and the sole focus was on defeating the dictators. However, this poorly conceived approach later led to rise of the Islamic State and the consequent civil unrest and violence.
Similarly, David Cameron aimed to target the EU-skeptic leaders of the Conservative Party, and to counter the influence of UK’s Independence party. It is now evident that his plan was short-sighted and did not take into account the evolving demography and environment in the country, whose effect was swift and stark. There was no political wisdom in such a gamble where possible gain was always over-shadowed by more pragmatic and more probable losses.
Relying on Referendum
A referendum is always a special case of popular vote on a specific political question. It has been one of the most popular instruments to realise democracy in many scenarios. However, for the people to make an informed choice it is important that they are unbiased and have basic knowledge of the topic under consideration.
In the days leading to the referendum the frequency of news reports on crimes committed against immigrants increased across Britain, which further added to the pre-existing biases among people. Thus, proper regulation is needed before such a referendum is conducted as the effects are widespread.
(The writer is a student, pursuing under-graduate studies at the Arizona State University. This is a personal blog and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses, nor is responsible for the same.)
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