One Year of Iran N-Deal: Far From A Runaway Success

Iran’s nuclear deal with US has not yielded expected outcomes as financial roadblocks continue to mar its progress.

With the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran deal, completing its anniversary, the results so far are not very promising.

The idea, finalised on 14 July, 2015, had been championed by the United States along with China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and Germany (P5+1). It was ambitious and painted the image of Iran as a country engaging in diplomacy and opening up to the outside world.

The deal paved the way for Iran to enter the world economy, and access its frozen overseas assets worth billions of dollars. While political dialogue has been initiated, and government and private bodies have engaged with the Iranian market, any major impact is yet to be witnessed. The deal has faced a number of challenges at every step.

Financial Hurdles Yet to be Cleared

To begin with, the deal has witnessed severe opposition from the US Congress and the domestic political structures within Iran. The hardliners in the United States have been calling it a mistake and the continuity of secondary sanctions puts the argument in their favour.

The banking channels between European countries and Iran have not been cleared yet, therefore, it prevents both parties from engaging in any trade. Moreover, the heavy penalties that the US authorities had imposed on financial institutions for engaging with Iran in the past act as a deterrent for them.

Anti-US Sentiments Persist

One of the biggest challenges faced by the JCPOA comes from the Iranian domestic power structure. The Supreme Leader and Iran’s elite military force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), may have allowed President Hassan Rouhani to go through with the deal but they remain vocal about their anti-US sentiments. They have made statements to prove that they will not back down or be bullied by the West. The most recent case has been the Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile Test carried by Iran under the supervision of the Supreme leader and the IRGC.

Even though the United States has disapproved of these tests, the Supreme leader stated that the deal cannot prevent Iran from developing further. The IRGC, who face a separate set of sanctions under the IRGC Sanctions Act by the United States, have not held back on proving that they do not care about the Sanctions Act or the attempt to isolate it economically.

Will the Deal Lead to Nuclear Arms Race?

The United States’ allies in the region have not been supportive of the deal either. Former Israeli Security official, Yoel Guzansky had stated that the deal will start a nuclear arms race in the region. Saudi Arabia, another regional adversary of Iran has been sceptical of the deal. It thinks the deal will revive the Iran-Saudi rivalry which can cause instability in the region. Yemen, for instance, is a prime example where Saudi Arabia and Iran are waging a proxy war.

In Syria, the Iranians are fighting for the Assad’s government contrary to the interests of other regional and international actors. Recently Iran issued a threat to Bahrain when they stripped a Shia cleric of citizenship. Hence, the deal will not only have a direct impact on Iran’s relations with its regional counterparts but also cause tremors across West Asia.

President Obama’s administration has continued to instil faith in the Iran deal by marking it as a revolutionary project. No doubt, the deal has the correct spirit and has succeeded in bringing the world leaders and President Rouhani together; however, it is far from being successfully implemented. The US election results will also shape the future of the JCPOA. One may argue that a year is not enough to allow such a complex deal to settle in, and it is vital to see how patient can the Iranians be.

(The writer holds a masters degree in international relations from University College, Dublin. This is a personal blog and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)

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