It has been demonstrated by the UP elections that last November’s demonetisation move also devalued the currency of some of the pillars of post-Mandal politics – Lalu Yadav, Mulayam-Akhilesh and Mayawati. But how, is an intriguing question.
Post demonetisation, I spent about 10 days travelling through different parts of Bihar and UP and speaking to hundreds of people, largely from the deprived sections of society. The result of these informal interviews will come later. Before we get to that, it is important to revisit the politics of Bihar and UP as it played out in the last few decades.
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Politics of 80s and 90s
The 1980s and the 1990s witnessed a three-pronged challenge to the ‘Congress system’ – which meant, loosely put, the rule of the powerful elite in collaboration with local notables.
The three main challengers were: (1) the anti-corruption movement led by VP Singh; (2) the Lohiaite-socialist leaders who sought to represent the deprived sections of society and (3) the RSS-BJP-led revivalist Hindutva movement.
All these forces joined hands and decimated the Rajiv Gandhi-led Congress in the 1989 general elections. This loose coalition fell apart soon under the weight of its overwhelming internal contradictions.
In the last three decades, there has been a steady organisational, intellectual and moral decline of the Congress even though it continued to win a few elections. The BJP has been gradually 'Congressised', though it has retained a saffron coating. Their collective intellectual and moral decline created a political vacuum where complete outliers occupied the political centre stage during the Anna Hazare-led anti-corruption movement at the start of this decade. However, this movement could not consolidate its gains and Narendra Modi walked into the vacuum to win the 2014 general elections.
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BJP’s ‘Congressisation’ Today
Post 2014, Modi’s regime has further ‘Congressesised’ the BJP. However, the two parties’ electoral performances have been diametrically opposite. The Congress has been sinking further – even after hitting rock bottom – whereas the BJP’s electoral rath has made rapid strides (except in the Bihar and Delhi Assembly elections).
This is an extraordinary feat, to be both the ruling Congress and the rebel simultaneously. Demonetisation has become an important tool in this jugglery.
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Outclassing Lalu, Mulayam and Mayawati
During my travels through Bihar and UP, it was clear after several interviews that Modi had surpassed Lalu, Mulayam and Mayawati, the three messiahs of the first Mandal wave who thought they had achieved a permanent revolution because they (the Yadavs and the Jatavs) had become chief ministers and all the poor people would be eternally grateful to them for having achieved that.
However, Nitish and Akhilesh were giving competition to Modi as defenders of the interests of the deprived sections. These three I describe as leaders of Mandal-II who have sought to mobilise the deprived sections on the basis of some collective action for the promised greater good of all sections of society, apart from caste and communal appeals.
On the other hand, Lalu, Mulayam and Mayawati – who I call leaders of Mandal-I – had limited their political fight simply towards getting the larger share of the government’s patronage network for Dalits, OBCs and Muslims.
Modi, the Messiah of Mandal-II Politics
It is surprising that Modi, the leader of a traditionally upper caste party, has also become a leader of Dalits and OBCs in Bihar and UP. In this, he has received considerable help by Mandal-I leaders like Lalu, Mulayam and Mayawati, who delivered highly corrupt, callous and inefficient governments.
Further, Modi has successfully marketed his humble origins and OBC status to occupy the Mandal-II space in Bihar-UP. However, that was not enough for him to win the Bihar elections.
Demonetisation did the trick in UP. It is one of the ironies of politics that demonetisation, which had hit the poorest the hardest, has made Modi one of the messiahs of Mandal-II politics in Bihar-UP, along with Nitish and Akhilesh. How has that happened?
Response of OBCs and Dalits
During my journey, I spoke with numerous Dalit and OBC respondents. The gist of the conversations is reproduced below.
I asked them what they thought of notebandi. The overwhelming response was: It was a great idea.
Why, I asked? I was told the country is dying because of corruption, which generates kala dhan (black money). And notebandi has attacked kala dhan.
The next question was: Don’t you think that notebandi has not had any big impact on vast holdings of black money?
Answer: It does not matter, at least somebody is trying.
But have you not suffered, I suggested. A large number of respondents reported no major suffering. Others said that they suffered but some of them pointed out reduction in prices as something which had ameliorated their condition. The rest said they suffered but it did not matter because some greater good was being achieved.
I also asked the same respondents who did they think was the real defender of the interest of the OBCs and Dalits. The respondents in Bihar gave top position to Modi and Nitish. Lalu came third. In UP, the top slots went to Modi and Akhilesh, followed by Mayawati.
Demonetisation Didn’t Matter
Whether the measure (demonetisation) was successful or not did not matter because it was perceived to be targeting black money.
That’s because a fairly well orchestrated communication strategy built up the perception that demonetisation was an attack on the black money owned by the better-off sections of society. This includes both the rich upper castes and also the erstwhile leadership of Mandal-I, thus giving caste politics a class dimension.
The fact that the poor suffered made them like the measure even more – because Modi had made them ‘sacrifice’ for a better society. They became foot soldiers in what they perceived as a battle for the greater good.
On the other hand, Mandal-I leaders had never led any movement (except possibly their elections campaigns) in which the poorest person was recruited as part of an army out to achieve something great.
Modi’s achievement is that he has made the BJP the successor of the Congress (minus its minority support base) and also of the forces which had challenged the Congress. He is both the ruling party and the opposition. He is the Mandal revolution and the counter-revolutionary Kamandal. Anti-corruption politics, which so far appealed only to the middle class, has been taken to the poorest.
Two Variants of Mandal-II
We have entered the second phase of Mandal politics, or Mandal-II. However, this phase of Mandal politics will have two variants.
One will be practiced by the likes of Nitish Kumar and Akhilesh Yadav, who will be connected to Mandal-I in terms of distribution of the patronage networks but will also have the icing of development politics.
The second variant of Mandal politics will be led by Modi, in which Mandal will merge with Kamandal. Greater urbanisation will give this merger an impetus because caste identities become less important in cities and communal identities become stronger.
This version will also have a ‘sub-Mandal’ strain in which non-Yadav OBCs will be mobilised against the Yadavs. This is where Modi and Nitish’s interests will align. It is interesting to see how this love-hate relationship will pan out.
There is little doubt that all the above variants of Mandal politics are far removed from the dreams of Jyotiba Phule, BR Ambedkar and Ram Manohar Lohia. A new, alternative politics will have to emerge to realise those dreams. However, that is a subject matter for another article.
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(The writer is a senior Supreme Court and Delhi High Court lawyer. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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