A mixed feeling of anxiety, expectation, frustration, anticipation and, to some extent, fear grips the world as it nears the upcoming US elections.
As Asia currently hosts some of the biggest and fastest growing economies of the world, America’s relations with these countries will shape the world: Both its economics and its politics. However, even by the end of the second Presidential debate, not much has been said about Asia except the Middle East. In such a scenario like this, it would serve well to analyse and introspect on the country’s post-elections relations with Asia.
Middle East
The Middle East continues to bedevil the United States’ military plans and by extension its economic policies too. The Obama Administration leaves a bad policy inheritance in the Middle East for the next US President. A reduced military presence, greater regional opposition and multiple states in the state of civil war leaves the next US President with little option in the region.
Moreover, US’ mainstays in the region – Israel and Saudi Arabia – today stand more distanced from it than in the past. A recent legislation passed in the US by the House of Representatives allowing the victims of the September 9/11 attacks to sue Saudi Arabia for any role in the terrorist plot has further driven a wedge between the US and one of its strongest allies in the region.
Asia-Pacific
The Asia-Pacific is likely to stand out as a region that will shape the post election economic policies of the US. It has the most number of US allies and partners; more than any other region.
The US has close to half a dozen allies including Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand and Australia. The US shares strong economic relationships with these countries and is likely to continue doing so under the next President. However, a lack of the desired assurances from the Obama administration to its allies about China has, to some extent, given room to scepticism in bilateral relationships with the US.
Hillary Clinton is expected to continue most economic policies initiated by the Obama administration, with the probable exception of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The TPP is a potential free trade agreement between twelve countries bordering the Pacific, with the exclusion of China. Both Hillary and Trump have come out to oppose the trade deal, albeit with many flip-flops. The US’ economic relations with China will be key to regional geopolitics of the Asia-Pacific. The economic policies of the US in the Asia-Pacific under the next President will also prove decisive in shaping its much-hyped strategic ploy in the region: Rebalance.
South Asia
None of the running presidential candidates have come out to state their South Asia policy categorically: Economic or otherwise. However, both the candidates are aware that, with India pegged as the fastest growing among big economies in the world and a changing perception of Pakistan in the White House, there is a lot that hinges on US’ economic relations with this part of the world. While its relations with India can potentially change regional geopolitics and security, America’s relations with other South Asian countries in the next decade can reformulate checks and balances against non-traditional threats to this region and the world.
How does the above regional assessment project the next US President’s Asian fortunes? Probably not in sanguine light. The US is still dealing with its myriad problems back home: Mass shootings on the rise, racism and increasing terror footprints domestically. This has been compounded with the US’ newer and fiercer enemies across the globe, like ISIS and its affiliates. The domestic economic growth of the US is still pegged at less than 3 percent, not giving much scope for financial adventurism at home or abroad. Given these circumstances, it is highly unlikely that any major reformulations will be done vis-à-vis Asia under the next US President.
But a Trump win and the concomitant unpredictability may prove this analysis wrong.
(Vivek Mishra is an Assistant Professor of International Relations in Asia at Netaji Institute for Asian Studies, Kolkata. This is a personal blog and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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