Heart of Asia Conference: Hope Pakistan Does its Homework Well

Pakistan needs to revisit its foreign policy ahead of Sartaj Aziz’s visit, writes Major general (R) Harsha Kakar.

The attack in Uri, subsequent surgical strike, heavy retaliation to border violations, raising of the Baloch card, demonetisation of the Indian currency, which was the mainstay for financing terror and funding militants, as also the election of Trump in the US, should open the eyes of the Pakistani leadership to the fact that India-Pakistan relations will never be the same. Further, with passage of time, Pakistan could be isolated further, pushing it deeper into the Chinese camp, which would make them the loser.

Prime Minister Modi did attempt to reach out to Pakistan more than once after assuming office, but their military never understood, nor did it even desire to try. It was ensconced in its belief that India would, like always, only cry hoarse and let things ride. Presently, it is hiding immense truth from its people, which someday will become public knowledge, causing the military and political leadership to lose face.

Tough Times for Pakistani Leadership

The first bogie, which had eluded all the Indian governments till recently, was the fear of nuclear escalation. Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine specifying first use in case of any Indian attack, kept our leaders from contemplating any action across the border, thus India only reacted diplomatically. The counter-strike post Uri, resulted in the Pakistani leadership hiding the truth from its population. Subsequent losses to its soldiers, except in one case, was also never disclosed. This is easy in a country which even refused to acknowledge its martyrs in the blotched Kargil operation. The cannon fodder militants meant nothing.

Secondly, demonetisation has resulted in Pakistan-inducted militants struggling to survive. With demonetised currency in their possession, their purchasing power has receded, exposing them to the security forces’ actions.

In addition to this, with lack of readily available counterfeit currency, further induction of militants, except for immediate and short-term action, is delayed. With winter approaching and no further induction, the security forces would therefore be in an advantageous position.

Thirdly, raising of the Baloch card internationally has suddenly brought a region, ignored by the world, into limelight. This suppressed struggle now visualises a light at the end of the tunnel, as it gains international support. Soon, videos of atrocities would garner international attention. It has already begun to give the Chinese sleepless nights at Gwadar and the routes approaching it through Balochistan.

Also Read: Not Just Balochistan, India Should Rake up Bangladesh as Well

Strong Message to Our Neighbour

Fourthly, the attendance of almost 100 percent students for the secondary school exams has openly sent a message that they desire education and a future, not stone-pelting and terrorism. It has also indicated that the population prefers to study with the state board pattern rather than religious madrassas, financed by Pakistan. It further conveys to the Indian government both at the state and centre that it needs to ensure that even though schools have been burnt, alternate means need to be immediately enforced, as also enhance employment opportunities.

Fifthly, India has conveyed more by action than words, that it is willing to up the ante as far as border actions are concerned. It has indirectly conveyed that it would employ the philosophy of massive retaliation to every violation. This will ensure that Pakistan bears the consequences of its border violations. The Indian public and nation have indicated their support to the security forces and the government for its actions. The Indian retaliation has resulted in destruction of bunkers and posts on Pakistan’s side as also higher casualties.

Also Read: Kashmir Students Brave Conflict To Take Board Exams

Trump’s Equation with Pakistan

Finally, the election of Donald Trump as the President of the US would indicate a hardening of the US stand against Pakistan. Trump had indicated his desire to end terror groups like the IS. The fact that the US continues to maintain a large force in Afghanistan, due to Pak sponsored terror groups would leave him with limited options. His views on Pakistan appear to be clear, when he commented that Pakistan needs to apologise for sheltering Osama for six years as also that he would easily have the doctor who identified Osama out of jail. Further, there have been talks that Trump would be willing to declare Pakistan a terror state.

Also Read: Trump Hints at Seeking India’s Help On “Unstable” Pakistan’s Nukes

The CPEC Quagmire

In this quagmire, there have been internal celebrations within Pakistan on the commencement of the CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor). Now that it is launched, doubts have crept into their leaders that it may not be as beneficial as they had visualised. Their worries are justified.

Firstly, China would use the facilities at Gwadar to enhance its trade with India, an aspect Pakistan considers an anathema. Gwadar is close to India’s west coast and hence would be a better and cheaper trade route. Pakistan has no control or check on the Chinese shipping activities emanating from the port.

Secondly, most Chinese investments in the CPEC are soft loans, which a beleaguered Pakistan would have to return in some time. The electricity likely to be generated from the power plants being established by the Chinese private companies would be costly and beyond the scope of the common man. The labour for construction of the CPEC is mainly Chinese, for whom Pakistan is compelled to provide security. In the long-term, Pakistan would only be deep in debt than ever before, while only a few top politicians and military generals would be richer by millions.

Time to Rethink

Pakistan’s leadership now needs to seriously rethink its national priorities. Is enmity with India and Kashmir its only national interests or does it need to reconsider its long-term strategy and seek peace. Maybe it is contemplating a change in its mindset, as despite the Indian attitude towards SAARC, it has planned to despatch its de-facto foreign minister and their Prime Minister confidante, Sartaj Aziz, to attend the Heart of Asia conference in Amritsar next month. He may plan to re-initiate the process of peace talks. Time would tell, as without the military agreeing their government’s hands are tied, however till then it is business as usual.

(The author is a retired army officer based in Lucknow. He can be reached @kakar_harsha. This is a personal blog and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)