Debate I End of Doklam Crisis, Big Diplomatic Victory for India

End of Doklam crisis marks a big victory for Indian diplomacy that didn’t bow down before China’s bullying tactics.

(As the Doklam crisis ends, The Quint debates how India and China can engage with each other on resolving border disputes. This is the Counterview. You may like to read the View by Sudheendra Kulkarni here.)

With both India and China confirming the decision of mutual disengagement from Doklam, the more than two-month old military stand-off between the two most powerful nuclear Asian neighbours has been peacefully resolved.

Undoubtedly, it is a diplomatic, political and strategic victory for India, and the credit must go to the leadership of both the countries for sending a powerful message to the international community that diplomacy is the best tool for resolving mutual differences. India’s assertion that every difference need not be turned into a dispute has been realised and accepted by the Chinese as well.

Also Read: After Doklam Resolution, Modi to Visit China for BRICS Summit

Diplomatic Victory for India

The example set by both the neighbours will have a significant impact in the international arena. “In recent weeks, India and China maintained diplomatic communication in respect of incident at Doklam. We were able to express our views and convey our concerns and interests. On this basis, expeditious disengagement of border personnel at the face-off site at Doklam has been agreed to and is on-going,” read the MEA statement.

The Indian diplomats have succeeded in restoring peace through negotiations, thus, handing a big setback to war-mongers.

The Indian leadership and diplomatic corps deserve credit for maintaining steadfast stand during the entire crisis despite grave provocations. The Chinese tried their best to bulldoze their way using coercion, threats and other elements of Asymmetric Warfare. The psychological warfare was mounted with full gusto. The state-controlled Chinese media and the propaganda wing of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) played a significant role in drumming up war hysteria.

China, adopting a very rigid stance, had been insisting on withdrawal of Indian troops as a pre-condition for any dialogue or negotiation. India stood firm on its stand of simultaneous withdrawal by both sides.

China had gone too far in provoking India but the calm and cool displayed by the Indian leadership further unnerved the Chinese who, in their effort to bully India, went to the extent of threatening war and raking up Kashmir.

Also Read: Doklam Standoff: China Withdraws Equipment & Troops, Say Reports

Strategic Maturity

China went so far as condemning Japan which had made pronouncements appreciating India’s stand in the face-off.

Now that the Chinese have submitted to India’s will, they display their strategic maturity because only a very well planned exit strategy would have enabled them to announce the mutual withdrawal of forces from the disputed territory. It is not very clear as yet if the Chinese have agreed to discontinue with the road construction, the major bone of contention.

If the initial reports confirming the Chinese abandonment of the road construction are true then it is a major strategic victory for India too. Though Doklam is in Bhutanese territory, India can ill-afford to compromise on the strategic advantage it enjoys in the area.

India’s diplomatic victory in Doklam will enhance the image of India among its neighbours and other friendly countries who will start viewing India as a truly dependable friend/ally.

Also Read: Doklam’s Big Picture: Neither Asia nor the World is China-Centric

Reason Behind China’s Change of Heart

The reasons that may have forced a change in the Chinese stance are in the realm of speculation only. But the obvious ones include Chinese realisation that the PLA was not fully trained for war. The PLA is undergoing massive reforms and reorganisation, including purging of senior officers.

The PLA, thus, is in a state of flux and the Chinese leadership was not very confident of its war-making capabilities, particularly in the Air Force and Navy.

Xi Jinping could hardly afford a military debacle particularly when he was not on a firm wicket domestically and the 19th party Congress, due in October, is drawing near.

The Chinese leadership also conceded to the fact that India enjoyed both geographic and strategic advantage in the area. The onset of winters was also on the horizon and life on the plateau during these months is a nightmare. Once again the Chinese troops deployed in the open would have been in a state of disadvantage vis-a-vis the Indian troops.

Though there is a huge gap in the balance of trade between the two countries, certain economic measures initiated by India also had a positive impact on the Chinese. The firmness shown by Bhutan and the astute leadership displayed by the Bhutanese royalty (both the present King and his father His Royal Highness Jigme Singye Wangchuck) also deserves to be highlighted.

Also Read: How Can India & China Move On From Doklam? Easy: Soft Power

Saving BRICS from Embarassment

Another major factor playing on the mind of the Chinese leadership was the forthcoming BRICS summit in the Chinese city of Xiamen in the first week of September. In a deft diplomatic move, India did not confirm whether prime minister Modi would attend the summit or not.

A boycott coming close on the heels of the boycott of the Belt Road Initiative summit would have severely dented the image of Xi Jinping as a leader of international repute.

It is a well-known fact that unlike his predecessors, who believed in ‘leaving the matter for future generations to resolve’, Xi Jinping is keen for early resolution of the border dispute between the two giant neighbours. There are also reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin has evinced keen interest in resolution of the boundary dispute between the two competing neighbours. A positive impact of the Doklam standoff and the resolute Indian stand is that China will be very careful in dealing with India during future negotiations on the boundary dispute.

Also Read: China Won’t Attack Doklam: Why an Army Officer in Sikkim Thinks So

(Brigadier (R) Anil Gupta is BJP spokesperson (J&K), political commentator, columnist, security and strategic analyst. He can be reached @BrigadierAnil. This is a personal blog and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)

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