B’Desh Polls: Result Will Have Implications for India Ties

Bangladesh, which has a parliamentary form of government, states as per its Constitution that the general election should be held within 90 days preceding the dissolution of ‘Jatiyo Shangsad’, barring exceptional circumstances.

This implies that the 11th parliamentary election will be held in the last quarter of 2018. The unicameral legislature consists of 350 members, of which 300 are directly elected from different territorial constituencies based on adult franchise. The remaining 50 seats are reserved for women who are indirectly elected by these 300 elected members.

Any party or coalition which achieves the magic figure of 151 in the upcoming general election will form the government.

Key Election Issues

Economic performance remains the centerpiece of all political and election debates in a democracy. As a developing economy, Bangladesh is considered to be one of the bright spots in an otherwise gloomy world economy. Agriculture, garment industry, exports, etc have kept the GDP growth rate robust in recent years. This provides leverage to the ruling party.

Nevertheless, factors such as high inflation, rising current account deficit, sluggish private investment growth, unemployment, etc are likely to generate strong anti-incumbency headwinds which may thwart the ruling party’s ambitions of returning to power.

Corruption remains a major political plank of Opposition parties in developing countries like India and Bangladesh. The 2014 Indian general election can be cited as a classical example to support this claim.

There are cases of corruption charges against all parties in Bangladesh. Also, Bangladesh has performed abysmally in the corruption perceptions index (CPI) by Transparency International. The Awami League government, which has been in power since 2008, has failed to improve the situation.

Poverty remains one of the major challenges before the ruling dispensation. The lack of inclusive economic policies may become a major reason for anti-incumbency.

In recent times, Islamic extremism has emerged as a security threat in Bangladesh. There have been regular attacks on writers and freethinkers. Capitulation of the State before these forces bodes ill.

This became evident when Hefazat-e-Islam, a fringe radical group, forced the government to remove the statue of ‘Lady Justice’ from the premises of the Supreme Court. In 2014, many parties such as Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its allies didn’t participate in the general elections, on grounds of an unfair election process.

The UN has also called for fair and free elections and exhorted all stakeholders to start a dialogue for holding inclusive elections. Besides these, education, healthcare and ending the quota system in government jobs will remain important issues of political rhetoric.

Implications for Indo-Bangladesh Ties

Bangladesh is an important cog in India’s ‘act east policy’ due to its strategic location, economic robustness and vast population. Being developing countries, both share the challenges as well as opportunities in their path to prosperity. Common cultural heritage, historical relations, especially the contribution of India in the Bangladesh Liberation War, and shared values, provide a strong foundation for the emergence of common economic and political vision.

Despite all these pleasant possibilities, Indo-Bangladesh relations have seen many ups and downs. Illegal immigration, land border dispute, maritime dispute, security concerns, water dispute, etc have remained major areas of contention. Settlement of border dispute by India’s 100th Constitutional Amendment act, crackdown on anti-India elements by Bangladesh, and settlement of maritime dispute by UN arbitration are some fruits of Indo-Bangladesh collaboration.

Water disputes such as the contentious Teesta water sharing, Tipaimukh dam on Barak and Farakka Barrage on Ganga also require mature political handling.

The impending Bangladesh election and the subsequent formation of government will have certain implications for Indo-Bangladesh relations. The current government is often considered pro-India by various experts. Indian policymakers may hope for its re-election to take relations to new heights. In contrast, many experts opine that participation of all parties is the only way to form a credible government capable of taking firm decisions.

Possible Outcomes of Poll

The various outcomes of the impending elections revolve around two major parties —Bangladesh National Party (BNP) and the incumbent Bangladesh Awami league (BAL). The BNP and its beleaguered leadership remain central to any election prophecies because the changing fortunes of the BNP and its leadership will decide whether it will be a freebie for the BAL or a serious challenge to its authority.

The BAL has high chances of emerging as a frontrunner with its well-oiled organisation under the strong leadership of Sheikh Hasina. There is a possibility of a strong contest if BNP leader Khaleda Zia can overcome legal hurdles.

The predictions are mainly done on the basis of the performance of the incumbent government and corresponding anti-incumbency, organisational capacities of different parties, the appeal of different leaders, etc. It is often argued that electoral tussle is not about who can manage the country effectively but who can manage the perception of voters. This reality makes the predictions quite challenging and interesting. Impending Bangladesh general election is no exception to it.

(The author is a writer and environmentalist (UNDP) and alumnus of Humbodlt University and NIT Kurukshetra. This is a personal blog and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)

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