BJP’s Tally May Be Reduced to 205-210 Seats in 2019: CSDS Director

Video Editor: Mohd Irshad Alam

Will the protests against the SC/ST Act dilution and recent rape cases affect BJP in the 2019 elections? Will the BJP’s allies, who are drifting away from the party, come to its rescue in 2019?

With a few such questions that needed to be answered, The Quint caught up with the Director of CSDS and well-known political analyst Sanjay Kumar, on the occasion of the release of his book ‘Post-Mandal Politics in Bihar’.

Will the issue of SC/ST Act dilution and recent rapes impact the 2019 elections?

CSDS Director Sanjay Kumar believes that there is a kind of unease in people today on a lot of issues, be it farmers’ issues or Dalit protests or reservation or the recent horrific rapes. These have caused an anger within people. While these issues, he claims, are likely to have an impact on the elections, what needs to be kept in mind is that the elections are a year away.

In the next 6-8 months, if these issues are addressed in some way, then they might not have an impact – but it may also happen that these issues continue to make people angry and impact the elections in 2019.

Sanjay Kumar, Director, CSDS

In 2019, BJP’s tally may be reduced to 205-210 seats

Kumar, who has accurately analysed many important elections in the past, feels that the possibility of new voters joining the BJP in the 2019 general elections is extremely low. He said that if we look at the situation today, BJP appears to be in crisis. The fear of falling vote share is strong. He admitted that in one year, the situation could change, but if one had to make an estimate, he says, the BJP's seat share may drop to 205-210 seats in 2019.

If Congress also wins 150-160 seats and BJP wins 200 seats, then Congress can form a coalition and benefit from the situation. But if Congress has won around 100 seats and BJP has won 200 seats then forming a coalition for Congress will be difficult. 

Sanjay Kumar, Director, CSDS

What is Kumar’s book ‘Post-Mandal Politics in Bihar’ about?

Talking about his book, ‘Post-Mandal Politics in Bihar’, Kumar says it details and analyses the post-Mandal era after the 90s when the Lalu regime came to Bihar, the changes that took place in Bihar politics, and how a casteist political set-up came to be.

This story was first published by Quint Hindi and has been translated by Anmol Saini.