Video Editor: Purnendu Pritam
Maharashtra is all set to vote on 21 October 2019 for the State Assembly elections and as political parties prepare to do battle for their mandate, last minute alliances seem to be everyone’s priority.
In 2014, the BJP was the single largest party, winning 122 seats out of a total of 288. Their ally, the Shiv Sena, was a distant second with 63 seats. The Congress and NCP managed only 42 and 41 seats respectively.
The 2014 elections had seen all parties campaign on their own, with no alliances announced before the polls. But that might change this time.
While the BJP-Shiv Sena do want an alliance, there are disagreements over seat sharing. The Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena is not willing to accept the 119 seats being offered to them by the BJP.
Sources say, the Shiv Sena wants a 50:50 split – that is, 144 seats each. Sources also say that the Sena has demanded that the BJP allot seats to smaller allies like the Rashtriya Samaj Paksh and Shiv Sangram from its own quota.
Apart from disagreements over seat sharing, Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis also finds himself facing off against the Shiv Sena’s crown prince Aditya Thackeray over a number of issues, including most recently, the cutting of trees to build the Metro 3 car shed in Mumbai's Aarey Colony.
But despite the discord, one thing is clear, Devendra Fadnavis, whose appointment as the Maharashtra Chief Minister came as a surprise in 2014, has clearly emerged as the face of the alliance. With Prime Minister Modi and Amit Shah lending their weight to the campaign, the BJP-Sena alliance will be hard to beat.
Congress-NCP Alliance Sealed
The Congress and NCP have learned from their mistakes in the 2014 Assembly polls and have forged a pre-poll alliance. Sources told The Quint that the parties will split their seats equally – that is, 125 each. The remaining 38 seats will go to smaller allies like the Peasants and Workers Party (PWP) and Raju Shetti led Swabhminai Shetkari Sanghtana among others.
While the two allies are yet to decide on their CM candidate, a few names that have emerged such as Balasaheb Thorat from the Congress party, along with Ajit Pawar and Jayant Patil from the NCP.
However, major last-minute defections have been a setback for the Congress and NCP. With heavyweights like Harshvardhan Patil and Sachin Ahir among other leaders defecting to the BJP and Shiv Sena, the Congress-NCP alliance has a tough task ahead.
Will Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi Emerge Kingmaker?
The Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi may have won just one out of the 48 Lok sabha seats they contested in 2019, but their vote share was 8 per cent, making a considerable dent in the Congress-NCP vote share. At least 10 VBA candidates won over a lakh votes each. Even senior Congress leaders like Ashok Chavan and Sushil Kumar Shinde lost their seats because of the VBA.
Interestingly, Dalit and Muslim voters, who are considered to be the Congress and NCP’s traditional vote bank, split their votes between the VBA-AIMIM and Congress-NCP. While the Prakash Ambedkar led VBA and Owaisi’s AIMIM seem to have cut ties for the 2019 Maharashtra polls, Ambedkar could still emerge kingmaker if he manages to secure an 8 percent vote share yet again.
Will The Raj Thackeray-Led MNS Contest Assembly Polls 2019?
Raj Thackeray chose to campaign for Congress and NCP candidates in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls but preferred not to contest any seats. It is still unclear if his MNS will be contesting the upcoming State elections.
Sources say, in a recent meeting held with party leaders, the MNS chief voiced his concerns over the economic condition of the country and also said that it would be difficult for the MNS to fund candidates of its own.
BJP & The Opposition Trade Barbs Over FDI & Farm Loan Waiver
In these last five years, Maharashtra has seen massive protests over Maratha reservations, demands for farm loan waivers and also a crippling water crisis. While Fadnavis claims to have solved the issues of reservations and farm loan waivers, the opposition has been quick to criticise their implementation.
Chief Minister Fadnavis has also claimed that Maharashtra has attracted the maximum industrial investment and maximum foreign direct investment during his tenure. But the Congress and NCP accuse the government of not sharing data to back up these claims.
(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)