Why Did Haryana Spring A Surprise on Election Day? Key Takeaways

Video Editor: Ashutosh Bhardwaj

Haryana proved to be a BIG surprise on election results day!

All except one exit poll had called Haryana in favour of the BJP, that too by a huge margin. But, come result day, and BJP has not even breached the 46-seat majority mark needed to form the government.

This means that the state is headed towards a hung Assembly, giving way to more negotiations, drama and possible horse-trading.

So, what are the BIG takeaways of the 2019 Haryana Assembly elections?

1. PERFORMANCE OF BJP IN HARYANA

After months of campaigning in Haryana, where they kept reiterating 'Abki Baar 75 Paar (This Time, We Will Cross 75 Seats)', BJP is only leading in 41 of the 90 seats (at the time of writing).

Thereby, not only missing their target but also the 46-seat majority mark needed to form the government. In the last state polls, the party had bagged 47 seats.

To add to this, eight of the 10 ministers in the Manohar Lal Khattar-led government have lost. The eight include Captain Abhimanyu, OP Dhankar, Ram Vilas Sharma, Kavita Jain, Krishan Lal Panwar, Manish Grover and Krishan Kumar Bedi. The BJP president Subhash Barala also lost and resigned from his post.

Most turncoats, who primarily moved to the BJP from INLD, also lost, including Zakir Hussain from Nuh, Parminder Dhull from Julana and Ram Chand Kamboj from Rania constituency.

BJP’s vote share, on the other hand, has marginally improved. From getting 33.2 percent in the 2014 Assembly polls, the BJP has bettered its vote share to approximately 36 percent.

2. GAIN FOR CONGRESS

In terms of seats, the Congress’ tally of 15 in 2014 state elections has doubled to 30. Their vote share has also increased from 20 percent to approximately 28 percent.

The eight percent rise in the Congress’ vote share is at the expense of INLD.

This is a clear signal that, despite the Congress' dismal performance in 2019 Lok Sabha elections and its party president Rahul Gandhi leaving the post, the people have not completely rejected the party as an alternative in Haryana.

3. THE END OF BJP & MODI’S ‘INVINCIBILITY’ FACTOR

This election proves that the ‘Modi factor’ leading the BJP is not invincible when it comes to state polls. From 58 percent in the 2019 LS polls, the BJP’s vote share was reduced to 36 percent in the Haryana polls. This was also seen in the election results of Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra in 2018.

This can be explained by the fact that prominent national issues like Article 370, Pakistan, Balakot air strikes etc did not resonate with the people on a state level.

The voter has voted on issues of unemployment and inflation instead.

4. CASTE ISSUES

BJP leaders, including PM Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah, had primarily campaigned on the issue of Hinduism.

This tried to negate caste politics but that failed on the ground. Under Manohar Lal Khattar, a non-Jat CM, Jat dominance was challenged in Haryana in the last five years. That, coupled with the burning issue of Jat quota in education and employment, led to them tactfully voting to defeat the BJP.

The Dalit vote too seems to have shifted to Congress after the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

5. THE CHAUTALA LEGACY

The legacy of the politically affluent Chautala family, coming from the deputy PM and veteran Jat leader Chaudhary Devi Lal, has passed on from his younger son Abhay Chautala – who leads INLD – to his grandson Dushyant Chautala in the JJP.

This voter base helped the JJP bag 10 seats in its first Lok Sabha elections. They hold an important position in this hung Assembly and could help determine who will form the government.

6. GLAMOUR FAILS TO WIN SEATS

From TikTok star Sonali Bhagat to the world class wrestlers Babita Phogat and Yogeshwar Dutt, it appears that popularity alone is not enough to win elections as all of them lost.