CSDS’ Sanjay Kumar on What Exit Polls Mean for Congress, BJP

Video Editor: Mohd Irshad

In the wake of favourable exit polls for the Congress in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh Assembly elections, CSDS Director Sanjay Kumar told The Quint that if the grand old party wins both the states, it will be a huge boost for its plans in 2019.

Speaking on Madhya Pradesh, where the ABP-CSDS poll predicts 126 seats for the Congress and 94 for the BJP, Kumar said initially there was little indication of anti-incumbency against Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, whose party, the BJP, has been in power for the last 15 years.

Initially little anti-incumbency against the BJP government was visible, but now exit-polls show that the Congress has an edge over the BJP. Agrarian distress and anger among the youth could have made the BJP lose ground in MP.

Kumar, however, warns that that the anger among voters in MP seems to be directed at MLAs and at the BJP-led centre and not as much against incumbent CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan.

Speaking on Rajasthan, Singh said that initially trends suggested that the Congress was in for a huge win, but exit polls have now painted a narrow win for the party. According to the ABP-CSDS poll, Congress may win 101 seats while the BJP may settle with 83.

Unlike Madhya Pradesh, asserts Kumar, the anti-incumbency in Rajasthan seems directed primarily against the Chief Minister, Vasundhara Raje, who leads the BJP government.

In Rajasthan, the anti-incumbency is clearly directed the Chief Minister. There was a fair amount of discontent among party workers, which seems to have helped the Congress. 

In Chattisgarh, the ABP-CSDS poll predicts 52 seats for the BJP and 35 seats for the Congress. Kumar feels that Congress Rebel Ajit Jogi could have cut around 5% votes in the state, harming the party that he was once a part of.