In the wake of air strikes conducted by the Indian Air Force on terror camps across the LoC, “Pakistan will be in a kind of a turmoil in societal terms to explain away this attack and could therefore explore retaliatory measures,” Air Vice Marshal (retd.) Kapil Kak told The Quint.
Kak’s remark comes close on the heels of India’s Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale’s presser on Monday, 26 February, in which he said that the IAF had India “struck the biggest training camp of Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) in Balakot.”
Following India’s confirmation of the air strikes, Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi reportedly said that his country would retaliate at a place and time of its choosing. But can Pakistan hit back at India? And will other countries support it? Here’s what Air Vice Marshal (retd.) Kapil Kak thinks.
Why Did Pak Accept Attack?
Kak believes that the Pakistani army, despite talking about defence preparedness, has not completely denied the attacks by India, and is following a policy of ‘quasi-denial.’ “We must not forget that Pakistan has not denied the attack. Yet, they have not given an accurate description of the air strikes and have hidden it in a way from its own public,” he adds.
Kak points out that the Pakistan Army, in a tweet, had first claimed that the ”Indian Air Force violated Line of Control. Pakistan Air Force immediately scrambled.” According to Islamabad, this means that the IAF had entered Pakistan-administered air space, but was forced to retreat after the Pakistan Air Force was deployed.
However, in successive tweets, the Pakistani Army said that the IAF had intruded from the Muzafarabad sector, and hastily dropped a payload near Balakot, while escaping under the ‘effective response’ of Pakistan Air Force.
Pak Has Security Questions to Answer
According to Kak, even if Pakistan managed to portray the IAF as being chased away by Pakistani jets, it still must explain how the IAF managed to intrude deep into Pakistan-administered airspace in the first place.
“But the public will ask the Pakistani Army, how did you have an aircraft come all the way to Balakot, which is in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It is not in PoK. So you didn’t have time.You don’t have the radar. Here your ability to defend Pakistan against terror attacks is being severely questioned, and the Pakistani public will do so.”Kak
Domestic pressure could, therefore, force Pakistan to take retaliatory measures. But will it be a full-fledged war? Kak believes that if at all there’s a reaction, “we are seeing
a very limited war in slow-motion. Not in the normal rhythms and narratives that wars bring about, including wars like Kargil.”
Can Pak Hit Back?
India’s Foreign Secretary Gokhale had said that the attack carried out specifically on JeM terror camps was a preemptive one, on the basis of intelligence that the outfit was planning more fidayeen attacks across India. Gokhale clarified that the strike was not against civilians in Pakistan and was restricted to forested areas.
Kak feels that since India had targeted a terror camp across the LoC, Pakistan, too may want to strike back. But Pakistan may have to convince its allies of a target to strike before it can take action.
“It (Pakistan) has friends in China and in Saudi Arabia, which will play a major role in terms of the type of response Pakistan will give. Because Pakistan cannot say that there are terror camps in Nagpur or in so-and-so place. So, they will have to come to some targets, which they will have to select. In which case, we are going up the escalation ladder.”Kak
Whether Pakistan is able to find a terror camp in India or not, it will be faced with a range of security questions at home and will have to explain away this attack.
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