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Will Balakot Sway Votes Towards BJP in Rural & Urban Rajasthan?

“If the BJP boasts about its achievements, they should say, ‘Yes, we’ve failed here,’” a law student in Jaipur said.

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Video Editor: Ashutosh Bhardwaj

Security and safety have been woven into the BJP's narrative in electioneering across the country. With PM Modi asking for votes in the name of martyred jawans, The Quint reached rural and urban Rajasthan to see if this episode will swing votes in the BJP's favour.

Narendra Modi is popular throughout Rajasthan having swept all the 25 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. However in the 2018 state elections, the Congress formed the state government. However, this was widely understood as a vote against former Rajasthan CM Vasundhara Raje and not the PM himself.

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Many of the young city folk The Quint spoke to in Jodhpur and Jaipur said they were unhappy with the politicisation of the Pulwama attack and Balakot airstrike.

“It was the duty of our armed forces to respond but certain political parties have taken advantage of that and I certainly do not think that it should happen. A leader should not take credit, especially for a political purpose,” 21-year-old Saurabh Aswal who is a law student in Jaipur said. 20-year-old Surya Pratap Singh went a step ahead and asked why the government was not acknowledging its security lapses. “If they boast about their achievements they should take responsibility too, they should say, ‘Yes, we have failed here.’”

On the other hand when we spoke to farmers spread across rural areas of Rajasthan the response was very mixed.

While some farmers said they would want to see the BJP in the centre, there were others who said the work of our security forces should not be a way of garnering votes – a Election Commission rule that PM Narendra Modi has been consistently violating in his public rallies. One farmer said he was proud of the armed forces but would only vote for the BJP if he was benefited under Modi’s rule. “Not benefited at all by this government,” he said. While others credited the PM’s visits abroad to have ensured Captain Abhinandan, who was captured by Pakistani troops, returned within record time.

The sentiment is also reflected in the C-Voter survey data from January to March of 2019. Before and after episode with Pakistan, the vote share of the UPA fell from 44 TO 41.6  While the vote share of NDA, led by the BJP, rose to about 52 percentage points. A 2.5 percent increase for the BJP.

Despite whether or not the terror attack and consequent strike by the Indian Air Force will determine their vote, it is safe to say that the Pulwama attack and Balakot airstrike will be an important consideration for Rajasthan which completes polling on 6 May.

(At The Quint, we question everything. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member today.)

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