Video Editor: Mohd Ibrahim
Wondering who will win the 2019 Lok Sabha elections? Will Dalit movements, rape incidents and farmers’ agitation affect the general elections? Will the Congress return to power? Or will Modi’s magic continue in 2019 as well?
While all these questions are up for speculations, Suhas Palshikar, a political scientist and a professor at Savitribai Phule University in Pune, analyses the situation to find answers in an exclusive conversation with The Quint.
Palshikar believes that issues related to Dalits, growing incidents of rapes and farmers’ agitations have somewhere contributed in creating a negative perception about the BJP government. Even though 2019 elections are a year away, these perceptions will have an impact on the party’s vote share.
Modi government has lost their goodwill since they came to power in 2014. Therefore, this will naturally have an impact... People vote based on perception. And as popular perception has gradually become negative,the next phase will grow more difficult for the BJP.Suhas Palshikar
BJP is Power in More States Now Than in 2014. Will This Have an Impact?
Palshikar says that BJP had secured 282 seats in 2014. Being in power in 21 states means that the BJP has more resources, and is currently at it’s peak. He calculates that there will be a fall in the number of seats as well as the number of votes for the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
Will BJP Retain Dalit Allegiance in 2019?
In 2014, BJP got about 25% Dalit votes. However, keeping in mind the Dalit resentment and protests, the primary question that arises is — will Dalits vote for BJP in 2019 once again? In response to this question, Suhas Palshikar says:
BJP’s actual vote share is between 20-25%. But last time, they secured 31% votes. Which means they secured 6-10% more vote shares in 2014. The primary question is — will these people vote for BJP again? Among those 6-10% voters, many Dalits and Tribal people must have voted for BJP for the first time. And if BJP hasn’t done anything for them and if these people continue to believe that the BJP is doing things against them, then the number of votes will naturally go down.Suhas Palshikar
Will Alliance of Opposition Parties Come as a Set Back for the BJP?
Palshikar, who accurately analysed many important elections, feels that BJP's vote share will not be reduced by any alliance. Rather if BJP's votes are reducing, then it would in turn benefit alliances.
In politics, the first thing that matters is whether people are in your favour or are they against you. If people are against you, then alliances help in bringing them all together.
How Many Seats Will BJP Secure in 2019?
When Suhas Palshikar was asked about the seats BJP would get in the 2019 elections, he said, “It is very difficult to determine the number of seats that the BJP will secure in 2019. All I can claim is that unlike 2014, it seems very difficult for the BJP to secure a clear majority this time.”
He also said that the coming one year of politics would decide the number of seats they would win.
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