The Congress seems to be making the right moves in Uttar Pradesh. First with a women-oriented campaign and then by declaring about 40 percent women candidates out of 125 announced so far, the party has managed to create some buzz in the state.
But can the party translate the buzz into votes and seats? In the 2017 assembly election when the Congress contested 114 seats in alliance with the Samajwadi Party, it hit rock bottom and could manage just seven seats with a vote share of 6 percent in the state. But, that was also an election in which every other party hit the trough in the BJP wave.
There are signs that this election in Uttar Pradesh may be more competitive than the last one, which gives an opening to the Congress to increase its base in the state.
This time the party has already released a list of 125 candidates and, according to news reports, plans to contest all the 403 seats in the state. The party’s vote share has been hovering below 8 percent since 1996 – apart from 2012 when it went up to 11 percent. So does it makes sense for the Congress to spread itself thin across the state? Or should it utilize its limited appeal in a targeted manner by focusing on a limited number of seats?
A clue to the Congress revival may lie in the neighbouring states. In Bihar and Jharkhand, when the Congress expanded in terms of seats contested, it failed miserably and that is because it has no mass base left on the ground. In the 2014 assembly election in Jharkhand, it contested 62 seats and won six, whereas in 2019, when it contested in alliance on half the number of seats, it won 16 out of 31.
It can be argued that this uptick happened because the votes of its alliance partner were transferred to its kitty. But in Bihar, when the party was in an alliance and managed to bargain more seats than its presence on the ground should have allowed, the result was a disaster. In the 2015 election, it contested 41 seats and won 27, whereas in the 2020 assembly election, it contested on 70 seats and reduced its tally by eight and won a mere 19 seats. While it can partly be attributed to the 2015 alliance a more formidable one, in 2020 the Congress underperformed even compared to its own allies like RJD and CPI-ML.
The Congress substantially reduces its strike rate when it tries to grow without working on increasing its presence on the ground in terms of workers/cadres. Even in the last assembly election in Uttar Pradesh, its strike rate was just 6 percent. The question to ask is whether the Congress is better served by maintaining a vote share across the state or concentrating in areas where it can make a higher impact?
The answer to this question may vary from election to election till the time the party can boast of a substantial cadre base. When the opposition space opens up, like it has this time, the Congress should worry about maximizing its gains to be able to bargain with other parties in a non-BJP space post-election. In Uttar Pradesh, where there have been numerous reports of the Congress lacking cadre on the ground, it should utilize its resources in a much more concentrated manner. The question is: where should the Congress target its resources?
MISSION AWADH
The party still has a substantial presence in the Awadh region, which sends 90 MLAs to the assembly. In 2017, 3 out of 7 winning candidates from the Congress came from Awadh. In 2012 it was 6 out of 28. It’s vote share in the region was 14% in 2017 and 25% in 2012, much better than its performance in other regions.
Traditionally also this has been the stronghold of the party and includes the family bastions of Amethi and Rae Bareli.
This time too, the party has selected an interesting mix of candidates from this region.
It has given tickets to mother of Unnao rape victim Asha Singh. She would be contesting from the Unnao seat. Sadaf Jafar, the anti-CAA activist has been given the ticket from Lucknow Central and Ritu Singh, whose clothes were allegedly torn by BJP workers, has been given a ticket from Mohammadi in Lakhimpur Kheri.
Then there are the traditional politicians who could do well in their respective seats. For instance, MLA Aradhana Misra will be contesting from Rampur Khas, which is said to be the strongest seat for the Congress in Uttar Pradesh and the bastion of her father Pramod Tiwari.
Two candidates in Kanpur are also said to be making a decent impact: Ajay Kapoor in Kidwai Nagar and sitting MLA Sohil Akhtar Ansari in Kanpur Cantonment.
POSSIBILITIES IN POORVANCHAL
Another region the party can target is Poorvanchal, which has about 100 odd seats. In the 2012 assembly election, the party won eight seats from this region with a vote share of 10 percent. In the 2017 election, the party won just one seat from the region but had a vote share of 25 percent in the seats where it contested in alliance with the Samajwadi Party.
If the Congress can pick 50 to 60 seats in these regions and mount a focused campaign, particularly on the seats which the BJP is eying, it can achieve two goals: one, it maximizes its chances of picking enough seats that can become decisive in the eventuality of a hung assembly.
But, the second goal is more important. Even if it does not pick enough seats but is able to impact the result by cutting votes of its national adversary the BJP, it gives the future ally Samajwadi Party a strong footing to increase its tally.
The Samajwadi Party is on the path of resurgence. Most BJP turncoats are headed towards it. But, its vote percentage has never touched 30 percent in any assembly election in Uttar Pradesh. On the other hand, the BJP and it allies crossed 40 percent in the 2017 assembly election and almost 59 percent in the 2019 Lok Sabha election.
It’s unlikely that in a direct fight, the Samajwadi Party can exceed the BJP’s vote share.
Only three or four-cornered contest can ensure the BJP’s defeat. This is where the Congress comes in and opens the space for an open or discrete understanding with Akhilesh Yadav.
(Samarth Saran is a political and communications consultant. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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