By any measure, Hillary Clinton is singularly well-qualified to be the next US President – arguably the most qualified candidate ever to run. But on her birthday today, a mere two weeks before election day, let's take a look at how and why this 69-year-old, rich, white woman with a strong establishment tilt has managed to unite disparate demographics across the US and the world. In a period of political turmoil and strong anti-establishment fervour (as in Sanders' and Trump's popular appeal), it is somewhat surprising – given the amount of vitriol she has weathered – that the incumbent party's candidate is leading in the opinion polls.
Here’s a rough breakdown of the candidates’ favourability ratings heading into the election:
Fox News has these ratings:
Overall: Clinton leads 49% to 41%
CNN has these ratings:
Overall: Clinton leads 49% to 44%
And RealClearPolitics has done a comparison of 9 opinion polls (including ABC News, Rasmussen, Economist, Bloomberg and Reuters), finding that Clinton is up between 4 and 12 points in every one, except two (IBD/TIPP Tracking and Rasmussen) where she trails Trump by 2 points.
So what's Clinton’s appeal?
The Anti-Trump
In this election, there's no doubt the anyone-but-Trump sentiment is a factor in Clinton's popularity. The Republican Party has all but imploded, with Trump winning the candidacy entirely through popular support, bypassing senior Republican leadership. But while his level of support has been unlike anything we've seen in recent elections, the level of opposition to him both from the public and crucially, from much of the media, is unprecedented. Only a single major American newspaper (The Las Vegas Review-Journal) has chosen to endorse Trump, and a number of traditionally Republican papers have lined up to endorse Clinton in a concerted protest against the Trump phenomenon. The Huffington Post actually runs a disclaimer on every one of its articles on Trump that says:
Editor’s note: Donald Trump regularly incites political violence and is a serial liar, rampant xenophobe, racist, misogynist and birther who has repeatedly pledged to ban all Muslims – 1.6 billion members of an entire religion – from entering the US.
Trump is widely regarded as the most dangerous candidate to run for election in a long time. This, of course, is Trump’s own doing, but it often goes unnoticed that the Clinton campaign's expert manipulations of the Republican candidate throughout the race have played a part in his self-destruction. *cough*3 am abusive tweeting about Alicia Machado*cough*
Hyper-Competence
Perusing Clinton's list of accomplishments during her political career is an exercise in humility. She is now experienced and knowledgeable in both domestic governance and foreign affairs; an impressive feat by any standard.
She was the first First Lady to hold a postgraduate degree, she was deeply involved in policy as First Lady, she was the first woman elected as Senator in New York, and she was Secretary of State under her former Democratic rival Barack Obama. She is widely regarded as a master of preparation, and her level of commitment to her work is unparalleled. You might have heard of her little stumble that the Trump campaign held up as an example of her 'ill health' and 'unsuitability for office' – neglecting to mention that her fall was because she was still hard on the campaign trail despite having pneumonia.
For a list of her other notable firsts, here's a handy video:
Inclusive Leadership
In a time of increasing globalisation and immigration, Clinton's campaign and team stand out as an example of a truly inclusive leadership style. Clinton's inner circle is made up of powerful, loyal women who are committed to her victory, and her campaign is the most diverse in the race, with 32% of her campaign staff being from ethnic minority groups according to a report by Inclusv, an organisation that seeks to increase hiring diversity in election campaigns.
The Rise of the Single Ladies
A powerful new demographic is emerging as a crucial votebank for Clinton. According to NPR, the share of women in the 'never marry' category is up from about 1 in 5 in the 1950s, to around 1 in 3 today. And these single women lean to the political left – a godsend for Clinton, much as Clinton is a godsend for them. These women care about issues like abortion, equal pay, and social security – all of which play to Clinton's strengths and track record as a staunch and tireless defender of women’s rights and freedoms.
What Could Stop Hillary Now?
Brace yourselves: White males without college degrees.
As though white males without degrees haven't done enough over the last few centuries, it appears they are now hell-bent on stopping the first female US President. Her support with white males is peanuts compared to the support they give Trump – draw from this what conclusions you will about the most powerful demographic group on the planet. Hillary Clinton, according to NYT polling, is doing either just as well as Obama did in 2012 or better with every group, EXCEPT white males without college degrees.
It appears the traditional white male power structure is flailing, and lashing out as it goes down – manifesting in the stunning level of support for Trump that is transfixing the world.
But it’s okay, Madam Clinton – they were never going to let go without a fight. Who better to bring it than you?
Happy birthday.
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