“History repeats itself, but in such cunning disguise that we never detect the resemblance until the damage is done,” wrote Sydney J Harris, a renowned American journalist from the mid-90s.
On this day exactly 10 months ago, over a billion Indian cricket loyalists became fans of Afghanistan, albeit for a few hours. Their support was staunch and their prayers unparalleled, for their own team had let them down. And now, everything relies on the same team that had not played a Test match until three years ago.
It was the Super 12 stage of the ICC Men's T20 World Cup, wherein India stood on the brink of elimination after losing against Pakistan and New Zealand – an Afghanistan triumph over the Kiwis was their only hope of a revival.
It was not to be. Kane Williamson's men secured a victory very comfortably, completely ending the already depleted hopes of a billion pro tem Afghanistan fans.
Everything changed in Indian cricket since that ill-fated campaign. The coach returned to commentary duties, the then all-format captain is now a leader of none, and more importantly, the team's performance also changed significantly.
India whitewashed New Zealand 3-0 in a T20I series right after the T20I World Cup, and then went on to do exactly the same against West Indies and Sri Lanka. Despite being 2-0 down at one stage, the revamped Indian team drew 2-2 against South Africa. It was followed by T20I series wins against Ireland, England, and West Indies – notably, all of them away from home.
Nineteen victories in the last 24 T20I matches, and only four defeats. Under the revitalising leadership of Rohit Sharma and the rejuvenating stewardship of Rahul Dravid, India came into the Asia Cup 2022 brimming with confidence. What could possibly go wrong?
As it turned out, everything.
Despite the numerous bilateral series victories, the Indian fans have once again been asked to summon the Afghan admirer in them from 10 months ago, for history had just played the cruelest, yet the most elegant trick in its book.
India's fate, for the second time in less than a year, is in Afghanistan's hands. After suffering successive defeats against Pakistan and Sri Lanka in the Super Four stage of the Asia Cup 2022, India are almost out of the final contention, and nothing but an Afghanistan victory over Pakistan can keep their hopes alive.
Irrespective of what happens in this particular competition now, the focus seems to have already shifted to October, where India will compete in another men's T20 World Cup.
With the bilateral wins proving to be a smokescreen and the team's weaknesses being brutally exposed once again in a multi-nation tournament, it is about time for the Indian team management to address some dilemmas and take a few harsh decisions.
The Top Three Conundrum
The Indian top three was under the scanner even before a ball was bowled in this competition – simply because it was the very same trio that featured in last year's T20 World Cup. A couple of half-centuries helped Virat Kohli drag himself out from under the microscope, while the 72-run knock against Sri Lanka stopped the questions on Rohit Sharma's form.
It leaves the management with one unresolved puzzle – KL Rahul. Barring perhaps the 28-run knock in the last match against Pakistan, Rahul has never looked comfortable in this series, and one could consider him a tad unlucky.
A hamstring injury, a sports hernia surgery, and a positive COVID-19 diagnosis meant he has played only two T20I matches since the T20 World Cup. Understandably, the Indian top three have not spent enough time on the crease together.
Over the last 10 months, India have used nine openers in the T20I format, who have combined to score 1,652 runs. Rohit himself has scored 575 of those runs, but the second on that list, who scored 459 runs (more than 25% of the combined total), did not even get a look in the squad for Asia Cup – Ishan Kishan.
Perhaps, a strike rate of 130 works against Kishan, but Rahul's IPL 2022 strike rate of 135 is not a massive improvement from that figure. Having opened with Rohit many times, both in international cricket and IPL, Kishan is an option the Indian team can use, if they do decide to tweak their top three.
Pant, Karthik, Glovework, and Gullibility
Dinesh Karthik and Rishabh Pant have been used alternatively, and whenever one of them fails to perform, questions on the other's omission from the team will invariably have to be answered.
Karthik revived his international career after a phenomenal IPL 2021 campaign, but barring a couple of knocks, his return has been rather underwhelming. He has scored 193 runs at an average of 21.4 in his last 14 T20I appearances, and whilst that is not the biggest issue considering his role is that of a finisher, a strike rate of 133.1 is certainly not what the team management would have hoped when they recalled him in the team.
Karthik did not do himself any favours with those numbers, but Pant might have, for the latter himself has been subpar in this version of cricket. His T20I average of 24.9 and strike rate of 131.7 over the last 10 months do not warrant a place on the team.
If at all we could move away from the Karthik vs Pant debate, we might discover another wicketkeeping option, who played five T20Is since the T20 World Cup, and his average of 44.8 and strike rate of 158.4 makes one wonder why he is not a part of the team. Sanju Samson, who was a part of the team for the West Indies tour, could be given an opportunity in Australia.
Shrey-assessing Alternatives
Shreyas Iyer, India's third-highest T20I run-scorer since last year's T20 World Cup, did not make it to the Asia Cup squad as the team management opted to field Deepak Hooda, who himself did a decent job whenever he was given chances.
Yet, a closer inspection will tell us that his role in the team has changed massively. Hooda has played four knocks of 30+ runs in his T20I career so far, all of them coming when he batted in the top three. In the current team composition, however, he is having to bat as a finisher, and this is where Iyer's selection can help India.
With him being a top-order batter, Iyer could essentially take up Rishabh Pant's position in the batting order, which then allows India to field Dinesh Karthik as a finisher, in Hooda's place. In such a scenario, however, Sanju Samson doesn't get a look-in.
Death, Because of Death
Among the Kohlis and the Sharmas, Jasprit Bumrah is perhaps India's most important player, and statistics will tell us why. He was among the two Indian pacers who bowled at least 60 deliveries at the death overs (16-20) in IPL 2022 and had an economy rate of fewer than 8 runs per over. It will be a major blow for India if Bumrah does not recover from his injury before the T20 World Cup.
Interestingly, the other Indian pacer who had a death overs economy rate of less than 8 is Arshdeep Singh. The youngster was asked to defend 7 runs in the final over of the matches against Pakistan and Sri Lanka, and on both occasions, he took the game till the penultimate ball.
India's problem, however, is finding a death-over partner for Arshdeep if Bumrah misses out. Bhuvneshwar Kumar is among the best in the powerplay, but his numbers in death overs are not impressive.
His death overs economy rate in T20I cricket over the last 10 months is 9, with the IPL 2022 death overs figure being 8.79. Avesh Khan, the third Indian pacer in the Asia Cup 2022 squad, has even worse death overs numbers.
He has conceded nearly 13 runs over at the death in his last 10 T20I matches for India, and the figure was north of 10 in IPL 2022 as well. Much has been said about Mohammed Shami's numbers in T20I cricket, but his numbers are along the same lines – around 10 runs per over.
Umran Malik could be an option India might try, but following the pattern, he has also been expensive at the death. Understandably, at least in this aspect, India is left with two options – firstly, to pray for Jasprit Bumrah's quick recovery, and if the prayers don't work, pick the best option from the not so 'four-letter-word-starting-with-s' bunch.
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