"Hindus have no voice here. There's no leader or party who will speak up for 'general category' Hindus in Punjab," says Sanjeev Sethi, who owns a small shop selling groceries and puja samagri near the sports market in Jalandhar.
On being asked if he thought that about the BJP as well, he says, "(Prime Minister) Modi has failed to fulfil his promises. Now the time has come for Yogi (Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath) to take over."
Sethi complains that his business has suffered a great deal and matters have become worse for him due to lack of employment opportunities.
"My sales have gone down because in Jalandhar, there's a supermarket in every locality. Everyone wants to buy from a fancy store. My wife is a graduate and yet she earns only a few thousand rupees every month," he says.
Sethi doesn't intend to vote for the BJP in the upcoming Punjab Assembly elections. He says he will be voting for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).
"As I told you, BJP has no chance. I will vote for jhadoo (AAP's symbol). We need a change," he says.
Sethi's choice is despite the fact that the seat where he's located – Jalandhar Central – is known to be one of the stronger areas for the BJP as it has won the four times in the past.
Sethi, in many ways, is symptomatic of the problem the BJP is facing in Punjab.
He is a voter who clearly wants a pro-Hindu leadership but despite this, he's not willing to vote for the BJP.
'ONLY CORE VOTERS MAY VOTE FOR BJP'
Basant Kumar, a shopkeeper near Mohindru Mohalla explains why this may be happening:
"There's definitely a perception that BJP is not a winnable prospect. Even if it may be strong in a few seats in Jalandhar, many people feel that it has no chance of forming a government on its own at the state level."
Kumar claims to be a relative of an important BJP leader in the city and does plan to vote for the party but he admits that many others don't feel that way.
"Only people from an RSS background will never change their vote. They will always vote for the BJP. Congress supporters, AAP supporters, Akali supporters can change their vote but never an RSS man, whether his party loses or wins."Basant Kumar, shopkeeper in Jalandhar
However, this may not be the case everywhere. A number of RSS workers are said to be assisting Shiromani Akali Dal candidate Anil Joshi in his campaign in Amritsar North.
"Anil Joshi is a strong candidate and has done a lot of work in the constituency. It is possible that they (RSS cadres) may have become influenced by it and are campaigning for him. There's no restriction on what they do at an individual level," an RSS functionary in Amritsar tells The Quint.
Joshi was earlier in the BJP and had won the seat twice in 2007 and 2012 and had consistently enjoyed a good equation with the RSS. He switched to the Akali Dal in protest against the farm laws in 2021.
Despite leaving the BJP, Anil Joshi is getting some support from RSS cadres.
(Anil Joshi/Facebook)
This reporter had noticed even during the 2017 election that a number of RSS cadres were actively campaigning for the Congress under Captain Amarinder Singh. But the situation was expected to change now that the BJP is going it alone in the state.
The RSS functionary, however, says that Joshi's case might be an exception and shouldn't be used to assume a broader trend among Sangh workers.
"He is currently the strongest candidate from the seat and the situation regarding RSS workers could change if the BJP puts up a strong candidate," he adds.
BJP NOT THE DEFAULT CHOICE FOR HINDU VOTERS
Punjab is an exception from the rest of North India as BJP is not the default choice for Hindu voters. At the Assembly level, the Congress has consistently polled more Hindu votes than the SAD-BJP alliance.
According to data from Lokniti-CSDS, Congress' support among non-Dalit Hindus has consistently been above 45 percent since 2002, while that of the SAD-BJP has fallen from 38 and 36 percent in 2007 and 2012 to 22 percent in 2017.
The BJP hopes that splitting from the SAD may help its prospects. But on the ground, that doesn't seem to be the case and the Congress may still enjoy a lead. Amit, who owns a large shop selling puja samagri near the Devi Talab Mandir in Jalandhar, says he plans to vote for the Congress.
"We like the MLA Bawa Henry (Congress MLA Avtar Singh Junior aka Bawa Henry). He has done work in this area. I don't think the BJP has much of a chance"Amit, shopkeeper near Devi Talab Mandir in Jalandhar
An elderly customer who has just entered his shop to buy some items before going to the temple, also joins the conversation.
"This is a strong Congress area. Most people here will vote for the Congress," the customer says.
The problem that the BJP is facing in Punjab is that on one hand it has a major trust deficit among Sikh voters, while on the other Hindu voters too aren't keen on taking a position at complete variance with the dominant mood among Sikhs.
"Hindus who have gone through the 1980s, seek stability over everything else. We would much rather decide who comes to power than push for a Hindu CM or Hindu leadership," says Kishan Chand, a voter in Tarn Taran.
"If BJP expects that Hindus will prop up a party on their own, then they are mistaken," he adds.
To be fair, the BJP seems to understand this and it is trying to expand among other communities as well, especially bringing in a number of Jatt Sikh leaders from other parties. The party seems to understand, perhaps correctly, that it can't grow even among Hindu voters if it continues to be viewed with distrust by Sikhs.
Its alliance with Captain Amarinder Singh isn't helping much as he too has lost much of his support among Sikh voters.
(The alliance with Captain Amarinder Singh isn't really helping the BJP)
(Aroop Mishra/The Quint)
There are different narratives among Hindus in Punjab. If Sanjeev Sethi in Jalandhar felt that "no one speaks for Hindus in Punjab," Ravi Kumar in Jandiala told us that the "Hindu vs Sikh" narrative is a false one.
"Punjab is not like UP where you can play communal politics. Here Hindus, Sikhs, Muslims all face the same problem - unemployment and corruption. There's nothing like 'Hindu vs Sikh' here," Ravi Kumar says.
The repeal of the farm laws has at most ensured that the BJP will get to campaign without disruptions. Its overtures to the Sikh community may provide the ground for future expansion.
But in this election, the party has an extremely uphill task.
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