Will the Uttar Pradesh By-Polls Witness a ‘Gathbandhan’ Again?

These by-polls are significant, as the three most important leaders have never contested by-elections before.

After a month-long marathon of election rallies, the swearing-in of newly elected Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath marks the end of a crucial phase in Uttar Pradesh. The upcoming chapter of the by-polls, however, will most likely witness swift changes in loyalties and political equations.

These by-polls are significant as the three most important leaders of Uttar Pradesh have not fielded themselves in this arena before. CM Adityanath is an MP from Gorakhpur, while his deputy Keshav Prasad Maurya is from Phulpur. The other deputy, Dinesh Sharma, is Lucknow’s mayor. None of the three have contested by-elections before.

It is one thing to take charge of the state, but it is equally important that the leaders make themselves a part of the legislative council within the next six months.

Adityanath and Maurya’s seats will be up for elections again. Other than this, independent candidate Dev Singh and Mohsin Raza – the only Muslim face in Yogi’s cabinet – are no longer legislators.

In the coming elections, Uttar Pradesh anticipates a 20-20 match for seven upcoming by-elections, which will include two Lok Sabha seats and five assembly seats.

Limited Options for the Legislative Council

The BJP had a plausible option of ducking the elections and nominating ministers to the legislative council, as well as making them MLCs. But there are currently roadblocks to that path. According to Dr Mukul Sharma, Research Officer of Uttar Pradesh Legislative Council Secretariat:

The upcoming by-polls will not see a new MLC. No new MLC position would be given to anyone in the next six months, apart from Badaun seat, after the demise of MLC Banwari Singh Yadav.

The implication, clearly, is that ministers who have never contested by-polls will be put to the test this time.

An Anti-BJP Alliance?

As the state prepares for by-polls, several questions come to mind.

Will the opposition – Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and Congress – come together to form a grand alliance to defeat the BJP wave? The alliance that never emerged prior to the Vidhan Sabha elections – can it put up a fight now? And if elections are held in any of the Western UP constituencies for the Assembly seat, will Ajit Singh’s national Lok Dal be a part of the alliance?

The Lok Sabha Seat Arithmetic

Seats for the assembly elections are undecided, but the Lok Sabha by-elections are set to be held in Yogi’s Gorakhpur and Maurya’s Phulpur seats.

In addition to the usual players, the Aam Aadmi Party had also put up a strong fight against the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. But after a dismal performance in Punjab and Goa, perhaps AAP may choose not to contest.

So if AAP’s vote bank is added to the anti-BJP vote bank, the picture looks like this:

Gorakhpur: 2014 Lok Sabha Elections

It is obvious that BJP has a majority despite the votes of all opposition parties, but the victory margin is reduced to 78,808 (7.5 percent) votes.

Phulpur: 2014 Lok Sabha Elections

Similar to Gorakhpur, all major opposition parties fall behind the BJP. But their alliance could fetch a considerable difference of 79,087 (8.23) votes.

This means that if there is no major political change, no single party or alliance can withstand the BJP heat. In such a situation, all non-BJP parties face a lack of choice. But is this the only reason for a ‘gathbandhan’ or are there other reasons?

Mayawati's Compulsion

The recent polls have pushed BSP supremo Mayawati to the brink. Apart from being a weak opposition, BSP’s position has slipped from the state assembly. Mayawati’s Rajya Sabha membership will also expire on 2 April 2018.

With only 19 MLAs, Mayawati will not be able to retain her seat in the Rajya Sabha. In such a situation, she has the motive to join the grand alliance – SP’s support will help keep BSP afloat.

She can also wait till the 2019 elections, but according to BSP sources, given the uncertainty, she would prefer to bag a seat in the Rajya Sabha now if she can.

Akhilesh Is Ready!

Former Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav had already proposed joining hands with BSP, though the need did not arise. But assessing the political hurdles along the way, Akhilesh's cycle will hardly affect Mayawati's haathi adversely.

Meanwhile, Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi’s war is already focused on the 2019 Lok Sabha election.

As of now, in the battle of perception and position in Uttar Pradesh, even a small loss for the BJP could provide ammunition to its opposition. These by-polls offer the opposition a chance to put aside all differences and come together. Will they make use of this opportunity to fight Modi in the Centre and Yogi in the state?

(This article was originally published on QuintHindi.)