Eleven years after walking out of the Shiv Sena, Raj Thackeray is back at the doors of Matoshree. His battle for survival is so desperate that he sent seven requests to Uddhav Thackeray for an alliance in Mumbai, Pune and Nashik.
While Raj’s confidant & MNS leader Bala Nandgaonkar visited Matoshree and went public with the proposal, Uddhav didn’t even bother to acknowledge it. This shows the worthlessness of MNS in the politics of Mumbai today.
I interviewed MNS chief Raj Thackeray early this month and came out surrounded by fellow journalists. “So, what’s the biggest news point,” one asked me although the interview was visible to everyone on Facebook.
Having worked in TV for a decade, I knew that TV channels had got their breaking news flash. But for me, the story was not what he said. The real story was what he did not say. I asked him clearly what he had learnt from his back-to-back debacles in Lok Sabha and Assembly polls. He eluded the question twice.
He’s lost 2 polls miserably and his corporators in Mumbai, Nashik and Pune are deserting him one by one. Still, he refused to admit in the interview that his party was in a bad shape. I think his refusal to admit to reality is the main reason why he has been unable to make necessary corrections.
Despite having the charisma and oratory of his popular uncle, his party is now fighting for existence. That’s because he missed 3 major opportunities in the last 5 years.
1. Dismal Performance in Nashik
Nashik, not Mumbai, has always been the stronghold of Raj Shrikant Thackeray. His party is now in power only in Nashik municipal corporation.
His bond with Nashik’s youth dates back to the days when he was the chief of Bharatiya Vidyarthi Sena, the students’ wing of Shiv Sena. With the help of two of his best buddies, both of who were based in Nashik, he made Nashik his de facto headquarters while his uncle Balasaheb was in ruling the Mumbai-Thane belt in 1990s.
After he formed MNS in 2006, the Shiv Sena unit of Nashik joined him en masse. Within 6 years, he won the municipal polls. He promised to visit Nashik every month and transform it into an ideal city. Had he done that, he could have showcased it as a model city and used it to broaden his base in the highly urbanised Maharashtra.That never happened. He hardly visited Nashik. Whenever he did, he was accused of spending a lot of time partying with a coterie of his close friends. When the media started asking him questions, first he blamed the non-cooperative state government. Then he blamed his own men, who then abandoned him one by one. Out of 40 corporators elected in 2012, today he has been able to retain only 14!
If this wasn’t enough, recent flooding of the Godavari washed away parts of the prestigious 13-km long Goda Park constructed on the lines of the Sabarmati riverfront project. This was Raj Thackeray’s pet project.
The MNS-ruled corporation has beautified parts of the city, but that is not the primary function of the corporation. Roads in Nashik are in better condition today, but the real credit should go to the Kumbh mela, which ensured the city received huge funds, say local journalists. Work or no work, even if Raj Thackeray visited the city regularly, he could have won the game of perception. But Nashik is his first missed opportunity.
2. Poor Show as Party in Opposition
Raj posed a serious challenge to Shiv Sena chief Uddhav for the first time in 2009, when MNS won 13 Assembly seats. MNS captured Shiv Sena bastions in central and south central Mumbai. MNS got 24% votes in Mumbai while Shiv Sena was reduced to 18%.
Within 3 years, MNS got 28 corporators in Mumbai and emerged as the second largest party in Pune municipal corporation. But many of his MLAs and corporators failed to perform or live up to people’s expectations. They alleged Raj was not able to give them time or guidance. Raj wasn’t able to keep the flock together and many of the elected representatives left him one by one.
Despite having won a decent number of elected representatives, MNS could not perform the role of the opposition effectively. Second opportunity missed.
3. Refusal to Learn From Defeats
After singing praises for Narendra Modi, Raj Thackeray was in two minds until the very end about whether to fight the 2014 general elections or not. Finally, he fought against the Modi wave and lost deposits in all places! This was the beginning of the fall of his party. Raj couldn’t stop it, when he faced Assembly elections within 5 months. MNS won only one seat in Pune district. Maharashtra Navnirman Sena was wiped out of Maharashtra.
After the back-to-back defeats, Raj went into a shell. It was expected that he would make fundamental changes in the party; he would become active and accessible to his own party leaders and workers. That he would work on setting up party structure, which is non-existent in most parts of the state. Nothing happened.
Refusing to learn from the rout was the third missed opportunity.
What next?
Raj Thackeray is a remarkable orator. To an extent, he continues to represent the anger of the people. So, people will continue to gather in lakhs for his rallies. But they have lost trust in him, because he never delivered when he had the opportunity.
By occasionally targeting Bollywood actors and north Indian migrants or courts of the land, he will try to hog the limelight for a day or two. Marathi channels will continue to show his speeches, for he is the perfect recipe for soaring TRPs. So, the aura around Raj Thackeray will remain intact for some more time, but the MNS will go on shrinking.
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