Shiv Sena-BJP Pact Unlikely as Talks for BMC Polls Hit a Dead End

The BJP wants to play a bigger role in the wealthiest municipal body but the Shiv Sena isn’t willing to give in.

A pre-poll alliance between the Shiv Sena and the BJP, for the upcoming polls for the Mumbai municipal corporation, appears to be highly unlikely.

After three rounds of extensive meetings, the two parties, which are alliance partners in the state government, could not find a mutually-acceptable seat-sharing formula. In fact, both parties haven’t budged from their positions at all despite the multiple rounds of discussions.

Having won one seat more than the Shiv Sena in the 2014 Assembly polls, the BJP is in an aggressive mood and refuses to play second fiddle to Shiv Sena in Mumbai anymore. The BJP has demanded 114 out of 227 seats of the BMC (Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation). This leaves 113 seats for the Shiv Sena.

The BJP has also demanded certain pockets in central and south central Mumbai, which have traditionally been with the Shiv Sena but have voted for the BJP during the 2014 Assembly polls.

We were supposed to exchange lists today. There was supposed to be a meeting, but the Shiv Sena says no. I found out about their response through the media. Discussions on alliances are not done through the media.

Vinod Tawde, BJP leader and Cabinet Minister

The Shiv Sena has rejected the BJP’s demand for 114, and has offered the party 60 seats. Sena leaders claimed that the party has always performed better in municipal polls, while the BJP swept the Assembly polls only due to the Modi wave.

Talks are over from our side and there will be no next meeting between Shiv Sena and BJP leaders. We cannot tolerate allegations against our party president. Now, chief minister Devendra Fadnavis should clear his stand on the alliance.

Anil Parab, Shiv Sena leader

Who Will Call it Quits?

This is the million dollar question. No one wants to be a villain in the eyes of the “Hindutva voters,” who are perceived to be in favour of an alliance.

The situation appears to be a repeat of 2014, when the Sena had rejected the BJP’s request for a majority share. Neither side was willing to comment after the talks broke down until senior BJP leader Eknath Khadse announced the end of the 25-year-old alliance built by Pramod Mahajan and Bal Thackeray.

Now, Khadse has been sidelined after being removed from the cabinet, following charges of corruption. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has always played it safe with the Shiv Sena and has maintained cordial ties with Uddhav Thackeray. But Mumbai BJP president Ashish Shelar has been attacking the Shiv Sena regularly for the last year or so.

What Will Happen to the State Govt?

Sources told The Quint that the BJP leadership has given Fadnavis the final say in the alliance with Shiv Sena. But Fadnavis will have to tread carefully. On one hand, he has to listen to the bullish Mumbai unit of his own party; on the other hand, he has to run a government with the Sena for the next two and a half years.

In case the Shiv Sena and the BJP go their separate ways for the upcoming polls in Mumbai and the nine other municipal corporations and 26 zilla parishads, it will result in a lot of bad blood between the two parties. This has the potential to destabilise the state government.

While the alliance partners have previously contested local polls separately, it has always affected smooth functioning of the government. This was witnessed in the 2013 municipal polls in Sangli. The Congress and NCP contested separately, but the allegations and counter allegations that had marked their campaign rallies spilled over into their cabinet meetings.

The ties between the BJP and the Sena have only worsened after Modi came to power in 2014. The PM Modi-Amit Shah duo have been vocal about the fact that they want a change in the previous arrangement – under which the BJP contested more seats in the Lok Sabha polls, leaving more seats for the Sena in the Assembly and local polls.

Moreover, Bal Thackeray had openly advocated Sushma Swaraj for the PM’s post ahead of the 2014 elections, when Modi was projecting himself as the prime ministerial candidate.

The last strong link between the Thackerays and the BJP was Gopinath Munde, who was a relative of Pramod Mahajan. The alliance has been on shaky ground after his death.

All eyes are now on Devendra Fadnavis as he will be forced to choose between a stronger party or a stable government.

Ahead of the recent municipality polls, Fadnavis announced an alliance with the Shiv Sena at the eleventh hour. He left the seat sharing business to local leaders. In practice, the parties fought against each other as it was too late. This time around, Fadnavis better have a different trick up his sleeve.