The ABP-CSDS survey has thrown up a host of interesting predictions for the upcoming Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections.
Around 28 percent of the survey’s respondents picked Akhilesh Yadav as their choice for UP Chief Minister, with BSP chief Mayawati coming in second at 21 percent.
The survey also shed light on the trend among Muslim voters in the state, a community that constitutes roughly 19 percent of the state’s population. The survey estimates that 54 percent of Muslim voters will opt for the Samajwadi Party, with only 14 percent picking the BSP.
Mayawati has made major changes in the ticket distribution pattern, keeping the Muslim voters in mind. The BSP has nominated 97 Muslim candidates, its highest ever. Mayawati has handed out tickets to 21 percent Dalit candidates and 26 percent to Muslim candidates.
Mayawati's 'M' Factor Is Slowly Growing
Mulayam Singh Yadav's politics rides on the Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) vote bank.
The BSP on the other hand, has slowly but steadily increased the number of tickets handed out to Muslim candidates. Here is a comparison of how many Muslim candidates the BSP has fielded over the years:
A comparison of the caste/religion-wise ticket distribution by the Mayawati-led BSP in the 2012 and 2017 elections also reveals a dip in the number of Dalit candidates.
Does More Candidates Mean More Vote?
In 2007, the Samajwadi Party bagged 45 percent of Muslim votes. However, in the 2012 election, it went down to 39 percent.
On the other hand, Mayawati got 17.6 percent Muslim votes in the 2007 elections, a figure that went up to 20.4 percent in 2012.
This time around, the Muslim vote in UP will not get distributed. The Muslim community is seeing the ongoing fight in the Samajwadi Party and therefore, this time they will vote for the BSP.Mayawati, BSP president
According to the survey, the BSP will garner 22 percent votes and bag between 93 to 103 seats in the upcoming elections.
But will Mayawati’s her strategy to weave Dalit and Muslim votes pay off? We’ll find out when the poll results are declared on 11 March.
On Mayawati’s birthday, The Quint is republishing this story which was originally published on 5 January 2017.
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