“If an SP-Congress alliance takes place, it will win over 300 (of the 403) seats,” Akhilesh Yadav declared with confidence while answering a question on the growing possibility of an anti-BJP, anti-BSP alliance.
But sources in the Congress tell The Quint that while the party wants to join hands with the Samajwadi Party, its only condition is that it’s given a “respectable” number of seats to contest.
Of the 403 seats in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly, the Samajwadi Party has offered 56 seats to the Congress. Not exactly excited at the prospect, the Congress wants to contest one-fourth, i.e, at least 100 seats.
Why Only 56 Seats?
The Samajwadi Party has justified its decision to offer 56 seats to the Congress with the following calculation.
During the 2012 assembly election, the Congress contested from 355 of the 403 seats. But the party was left devastated, with 240 candidates forfeiting their security deposits. The Congress won only 28 assembly seats that year.
Now, the Congress was in the No 2 position in 31 of the 355 seats it contested. It was trailing the Samajwadi Party in 15 of these 31 seats.
In total, there were only 26 seats in which the Congress defeated the Samajwadi Party, but secured only the third or fourth position.
Considering the Samajwadi Party did not contest two seats, the party has calculated that it was ahead of the Congress in 56 seats (28+26+2) and is willing to part only with those seats.
Congress’ Argument
The Congress is justifying its stake in over 100 seats with the claim that the Yadav family feud has left voters conflicted and that the SP could be facing its toughest election yet.
Additionally, the party has projected that Rahul Gandhi’s Kisan Yatra in September has improved the party’s graph in the Bundelkhand areas.
However, a section of the Congress believes that the party should be willing to compromise as the larger goal of an alliance with the SP is to tighten the party’s grip not just in the Uttar Pradesh but also at the Centre.
Both Rahul and Akhilesh Are in Favour of the Alliance
Sources in the Congress have confirmed that the party vice-president too is keen on an alliance and is in touch with the Samajwadi Party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav through the party’s strategist Prashant Kishor.
In fact, over the last couple of days, at least 20 Congress legislators have met Rahul Gandhi and pushed for an alliance with SP.
Demonetisation Changed the Situation
At least two attempts were made at striking an alliance before Prime Minister Modi announced the demonetisation of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes. Samajwadi Party Chief Mulayam Singh Yadav had outright rejected the idea.
But the situation has changed post-demonetisation. Both parties believe that the banning of high-value notes has turned public opinion against the BJP and that an SP-Congress combine could present itself as an attractive alternative.
Eye on the Muslim Voters
The Samajwadi Party is also hoping that an alliance with the Congress will help it retain UP’s 19 percent Muslim vote bank that is being aggressively wooed by Mayawati’s BSP.
In such a scenario, a Congress-SP alliance could help win these voters over. An SP minister indicated to Quint Hindi that while the Congress itself may not be a force to reckon with, in alliance with the SP, it could present a strong bulwark against the BJP.
The Ball is in Mulayam’s Court
The final decision for SP would be taken by Mulayam Singh Yadav. Sources close to him say that though victory is important, Mulayam might not be willing to see Congress’ resurrection in Uttar Pradesh, especially since the party has been out of state politics for 27 years now.
Though an alliance between the Congress and the Samajwadi Party seems likely, there’s still a long way to go.
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