Split Wide Open? Mulayam-Akhilesh Feud Reaches Point of No Return

Akhilesh hopes to make the most of SP family feud by portraying himself as a martyr, writes Sharad Gupta.

The push within the Samajwadi Party has come to a shove. Literally. Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav and party’s state president Shivpal Yadav had a minor scuffle in the presence of the SP’s national president Mulayam Singh Yadav at a meeting convened Monday to sort out the ever-widening differences between the two.

Clearly, the spat is not an intra-family or intra-party issue anymore. The two factions have reached a point of no return and have been apparently charting their respective future course of action. More importantly, it also shows the weakening hold of Mulayam over his clan, more than 25 of whom hold public posts, from the panchayat level to the chief minister and in Parliament.

Also Read: SP Feud Live: Shivpal, Akhilesh Meet at Mulayam’s Residence

Akhilesh is reported to be in touch with Congress leaders, including state chief Raj Babbar and central observer Ghulam Nabi Azad. His uncle Ram Gopal Yadav has already approached the Central Election Commission to enquire about registration of a new political party called the Rashtriya Samajwadi Party (RSP) with “motorcycle” as its symbol. He is also in touch with the Janata Dal (United) and the RJD which have some support in the eastern UP districts adjoining Bihar.

Also Read: Mulayam’s Younger Son, the “Non-Political” Pehelwan, Prateek Yadav

Independent Course

Akhilesh seems to have charted out his strategy very clearly and well in advance. He apparently explored various options and the pros and cons of each of them. After today’s fracas, it’s clear that Akhilesh will be forced to leave the party, which is firmly under the control of his father and uncle Shivpal.

But Akhilesh doesn’t want to bow out meekly. He doesn’t want to be seen as the one who split the party. He wants to be portrayed as a 'martyr' who ran a pro-development government and wanted to rid the party of corrupt politicians and criminals.

The chief minister has shown political shrewdness, dexterity and maturity. Akhilesh has been claiming that he won’t form a new party but he has been working to the contrary on the sly.

Akhilesh wants to wean away as many MLAs as he can from the SP. So, instead of walking away quietly, he has put up a fight, expressing faith in his father on the one hand and taking on his detractors on the other.

This is the reason why on Sunday he had legislators repose faith in him in writing. According to party sources, of the 229 MLAs, 187 have expressed faith in the young politician. In the event of the party leadership – Mulayam and Shivpal – deciding to replace him as CM, several MLAs are likely to walk away with him. He will tom-tom his achievements, including the Lucknow Metro and the Ganga Expressway, while donning the victim’s mantle.

UP CM to Chart Independent Course

• Samajwadi Party family feud moves beyond an intra-party issue as both factions chalk out future course of action.
  
• Akhilesh reportedly in touch with Congress UP chief Raj Babbar, while Ram Gopal Yadav tries to figure out nitty-gritties of floating a new party with EC.
  
• Akhilesh hopes to reap political dividend by portraying himself as a martyr and fighting against the corrupt in the party.
  

• Akhilesh’s new party RSP, along with Congress and JD(U), may emerge as a ‘third front’ in UP against the BJP and the BSP.
  

What Awaits the SP?

In case Akhilesh walks out, the SP will fight alone under the leadership of Mulayam and Shivpal. It will retain its flag and election symbol – bicycle, which will give the party an advantage. But everything boils down to sheer numbers – how many MPs, MLAs, leaders and workers each side is able to retain. For, a political party is as strong as its workers.

The Genesis

Why did the father who propped up Akhilesh as the youngest CM in 2012, turn against him? There are many hypotheses, stories and rumours, emanating from the SP stable and the Yadav household. But their credibility cannot be vouched for.

The most logical of them is that Mulayam’s second wife, Sadhna Gupta, who is close to Shivpal and Amar Singh, has been poisoning Mulayam’s mind against Akhilesh for the past five years. She feels Akhilesh has got the money as well as power whereas her son Prateek doesn’t. Hence, the power struggle.

Also Read: Meet Mulayam Yadav’s Choti Bahu, The Ambitious Aparna Bisht

Naresh Agrawal Factor

In UP’s politics, Rajya Sabha member Naresh Agrawal is considered a political weathervane. For the past 25 years, he has invariably been found on the side of the ruling party. It started in 1996 when he left the Congress and formed the All India Loktantrik Congress to join the Kalyan Singh government. Later, he switched to the BSP and was sent to the Rajya Sabha by Mayawati.

Five years ago, Agrawal again switched sides and joined the SP. In the bargain, he was re-nominated to the Rajya Sabha while his MLA son Nitin became a minister in the Akhilesh Yadav government. Curiously enough, Naresh has, so far, reposed faith in Akhilesh this time. Will his intuition prove right once again?

Who Gains, Who Loses?

In the event of the emergence of the RSP, a Congress-JD(U) alliance might emerge as a ‘third front’ against the BJP and the BSP. Minorities and OBCs – important and sizeable vote banks in caste-ridden UP – might turn to the new combine. Congress leaders have been admitting as much.

“We have realised the Congress doesn’t have much support on the ground. If the alliance emerges, we will rock both the BJP and the BSP’s boat,” a senior Congress leader claimed. The BSP, on the other hand, is hoping that Muslims might turn to it if the Samajwadi Party splits.

Is a Rapprochement Possible?

Yes, it is. Only if Mulayam gives Akhilesh the responsibility of distribution of tickets for the forthcoming Assembly elections. That is the only demand Akhilesh made in his speech on Monday. On the other hand, Mulayam did not accede to Shivpal's demand to take over as chief minister. Obviously, Mulayam wants Akhilesh to carry on as CM. In case he authorises  Akhilesh to distribute tickets, the latter will continue in the party - fielding his loyalists in Assembly elections. The only people at a disadvantage will be Shivpal, Amar Singh and Mulayam's second wife Sadhna.

(The writer is a Delhi-based senior journalist. He can be reached at @sharadgupta1.)

Also Read: SP Split Looming: New Name, Symbol for Akhilesh’s Political Outfit