With Note Ban Effect & No CM Face, It Won’t be Easy for BJP in UP

Failing to project a CM candidate and demonetisation’s adverse effects will hurt the BJP’s prospects in UP.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has got the timeline of Uttar Pradesh’s vanvas wrong. During his uninspiring speech in Lucknow on 2 January, Modi drew on this motif from the Ramayana. He reminded people that it was 14 years since the BJP lost power in the state but claimed that with his party poised to secure a majority, UP’s bad days would be over soon.

But Modi forgot that while his claim is based on political rhetoric and on what he would like the scenario to be, the actual 14-year-long vanvas for the state began in 1993, the year which heralded the beginning of the period when no single party secured a majority of its own. 1993 also marked the beginning of a period when not a single chief minister lasted an entire term in office.

This phase ended in 2007, when after 14 years, a single party secured an absolute majority, Mayawati became the chief minister and remained in office till 2012 when the Samajwadi Party secured a majority. Modi may claim to be sole haulier of vikas or development, but the people of UP will say that the state turned the corner in 2007, and is now in total contrast to when governments lasted barely a couple of years at the most. Given this sentiment in the state, it is unlikely that UP’s voters will deliver a fractured mandate. The question is which party would emerge as the winner.

Also Read: UP’s Fight to the Top: Who Will Emerge Victorious This Time?

Clean Sweep in UP Unlikely

Now that the dates of elections have been announced, it is clear that Modi begins the race with a huge disadvantage because whatever the outcome, the BJP’s performance will always be measured against its showing in 2014, when it secured more than 40 percent of the votes and 73 Lok Sabha seats. Such a landslide happens only once in a blue moon and is unlikely to be repeated this time for several reasons. First, people are voting for a chief minister and not a prime minister. The absence of a credible local face is the biggest impediment for the BJP in UP.

As past results in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand have demonstrated in 2014, the BJP with Modi as its electoral mascot secured a majority only when the Opposition had a discredited leader as its chief ministerial candidate. But when, like in Delhi and Bihar, the BJP locked horns with a credible alternative, it bit the dust.

The BJP opted to name a chief ministerial candidate in Assam and this ensured victory because Tarun Gogoi had strong anti-incumbent sentiments against him. One can have disagreements with Mayawati’s style of politics and argue that Akhilesh Yadav has not delivered as much as his loyalists claim. But they are surely not disgraced leaders.

Also Read: 5 States, 690 Seats: All You Need to Know About Elections 2017

Demonetisation Will Backfire

The second reason why Modi will not find UP a benign pitch to bat on is the hara-kiri he committed on demonetisation. In the initial days after 8 November, he claimed that the decision was aimed at benefiting the poor. It was evident that Modi was ditching the party’s traditional constituency comprising the professional middle class and traders in favour of a more proletarian base.

But when it began receiving negative feedback that the move was not turning out to be successful, he reversed his strategy and went back to wooing traders and those with small businesses.

Travels through western UP in recent days reveal that demonetisation has not cut much ice with either of the social groups and now Modi faces the dire prospect of falling between two stools – he will neither win back the previous constituency nor the attempted target. Superficially, most people praise the move but this is due to Modi placing the policy on a high moral ground.

After all, even the most consistent accumulator of undisclosed wealth and currency would not publicly justify it. Similarly, no one would say that there is nothing wrong in being corrupt. Traders are still looking for ways to go beneath the tax net. The support for demonetisation that the BJP is claiming is nothing but a mirage.

Also Read: Muslims Make up One-Third of BSP’s List of 100 UP Poll Candidates

Will Communal Polarisation Help?

Since 2015, the BJP was aware that its chances in UP depend on its capacity to arouse communal passions like it did in 2014. Several efforts were made – Dadri in 2015, the Kairana incident last year and subsequently whipping up passions after the surgical strike were made but in vain.

Communal polarisation is the only way BJP can wean the Dalits – whose support is essential – from the BSP because during communal clashes the upper castes traditionally draw marauding mobs from socially deprived castes. With less than 50 days to go before polls are held in western UP, the task before the BJP is uphill.

Akhilesh’s ‘Vikas’ Mantra

The situation within the Samajwadi Party is still unfolding and it will be at least another 10 days before there is clarity if Akhilesh will enter into a pact with the Congress and the Rashtriya Lok Dal. Whichever way the battle lines are finally drawn, the contest will remain triangular.

But if the Akhilesh-led mahagathbandhan-type alliance is cobbled together, it will spell further trouble for the BJP. This is because the alliance will not affect the core social base of Mayawati but will make inroads into the BJP’s core urban, upper caste and OBC base and the SP-led alliance will grow at the BJP’s expense.

After all, Akhilesh is being projected as the new-Modi or Modi 2.0. He is being showcased as a pro-development leader with a few urban development projects, expressways and elevated corridors to flaunt, along with mobile apps, much like Modi.

There is, after all, the old phrase in Hindi – loha, lohe ko kaat-ta hai. Without a doubt, Modi and his associates have to do some quick thinking to conjure up a strategy which can prevent a repeat of a Bihar-like wipe-out. And they do not have much time.

(The writer is an author and journalist based in Delhi. His most recent books are ‘Sikhs: The Untold Agony of 1984’ and ‘Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times’. He can be reached @NilanjanUdwin. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)

Also Read: PM Modi is Rattled by Demonetisation’s Resounding Failure