The latest survey results have more bad news than good for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Uttar Pradesh (UP). While the BJP is seen to be doing much better than what it had done in the Assembly elections five years ago, the party is likely to see an erosion of a whopping 16 percentage points in vote share compared to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. In other words, the BJP is seen to be retaining only 60 percent of the votes it got in the Lok Sabha elections.
What has gone wrong with the party that had created a record of sorts only two years ago? The CSDS-Lokniti survey offers some answers. While the overall satisfaction level with the union government is quite high, a majority of respondents (52 percent) said the PM has failed to bring achche din. The proportion of such response is even higher, at 55 percent, among Dalits, according to the survey.
Perception that ‘Achche Din’ Have not Arrived
What should worry the BJP even more is the perception among UP voters that prices have risen at a faster clip in the last two years. An overwhelming 87 percent of respondents said so. And they blamed the Centre more than the state government for rising prices. Add to that the anecdotal evidence of rising dissatisfaction with the party’s incumbent members of Parliament, the BJP has a difficult task in hand if it wants a realistic chance of capturing power in UP.
Will nominating a chief ministerial candidate help?
Survey results show that no leader from any party can even remotely match the popularity of chief minister Akhilesh Yadav and Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati in the state. Union home minister Rajnath Singh is a distant third.
There is a possibility that Rajnath may be projected as the BJP’s chief minister candidate. But if survey results are any indication, it may not make much of a difference.
BJP Traditionally has Limited Social Base in UP
Fighting without a general is not the only problem for the BJP in UP. It suffers from, what some political scientists call, limited ‘fixed assets’, consisting mainly of upper castes. The party has done well only when others have joined the ranks. However, the association of other social groups with the BJP has so far been temporary, lasting not more than one or two elections.
In the last Lok Sabha elections, BJP’s spectacular show in UP is largely attributed to the kind of support it got among three social groups — upper castes, non-Yadav other backward classes (OBCs) and non-Jatav Dalits. The latest survey shows that Dalits have all gone back to the BSP and there has been substantial erosion in support among upper castes and lower OBCs too.
Why a CM Face May Not Help BJP
- A majority of UP voters waiting for achche din, according to CSDS-Lokniti survey.
- Erosion in BJP’s vote share likely as per the survey results.
- Projection of CM candidate may lead to factionalism.
- Rajnath Singh enjoys good rapport with party workers.
Substantial Erosion in Support Since 2014
According to CSDS-Lokniti survey data, while 45 percent non-Jatav Dalits had voted for the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, only 16 percent of them are expected to vote for the saffron party if Assembly elections are held now. In the case of lower OBCs, the decline is expected to be from a high of nearly 60 percent in 2014 to 38 percent now.
What if Rajnath Singh is Projected as CM Face?
The erosion is unlikely to be arrested if Rajnath Singh is declared the chief ministerial face of the BJP in UP. There is a possibility that the announcement may even accelerate the erosion. Upper castes have solidly stood behind the BJP thus far. However, there are factions inside this social category as well. Rajnath’s projection may result in alienation of Brahmin voters. With the Congress aggressively wooing Brahmins in the state, it is a possibility the BJP can ill-afford to ignore.
However, appointment of a general helps energise the rank and file. Rajnath Singh is known to be a leader who enjoys good rapport with party workers in the state. Being a moderate face of the party, he may help the BJP reach out to non-core voters. In his earlier stint as the chief minister of UP, he made a reputation of being an able administrator, which is another plus. But despite these advantages, it is going to be a huge challenge even for a veteran like Rajnath Singh to arrest BJP’s seeming slide in the key battleground state.
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