As Narendra Modi takes oath as India's prime minister for the third consecutive term, he himself – through telephonic conversations – has invited political leaders from South Asia, including Nepal Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal to attend the ceremony on Sunday, 9 June.
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In 2014, when Modi became prime minister for the first time, he began the tradition of inviting heads of the state and governments from neighbouring countries to the swearing-in function – later conceptualised as a ‘neighbourhood-first' policy.
In 2019, he reached out beyond the immediate neighbourhood to invite Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral, Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) leaders, but still continued to invite the immediate neighbours.
In his third term too, he has again given priority to the neighbourhood's leaders, signalling the continuation of the 'neighbourhood-first' policy.
In 2014, the then Nepal prime minister Sushil Koirala of the Nepali Congress attended the swearing-in ceremony. In 2019, KP Sharma Oli from CPN-UML was present. For the ceremony on 9 June, Sunday, Dahal from Maoist will be attending the programme.
Continuity Over Changes
Modi is the only second Indian prime minister after Jawaharlal Nehru in 1963 to take oath as the prime minister for the third term. The other key takeaways from the 18th Indian Lok Sabha elections are that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has lost single-party majority after 10 years – and that the election has produced a coalition government with stronger voices and bargaining power of small political parties.
In Modi’s third term, major changes in India-Nepal bilateral relations are unlikely to happen.
There will be more continuity than changes.
Politically speaking, there will not be much of an impact of the Indian election results on Nepal. The continuation of Modi as the prime minister and the ruling BJP is good news for Nepal, because thanks to cultural affinity and other factors, there is already a strong network and robust communication channels between the BJP and Nepal’s political parties.
Over the last few years, the BJP has developed a party-to-party relationship with Nepal’s major political parties even as the bilateral relations saw several highs and lows after Modi came to power in 2014. But even as new disputes emerged, the overall trajectory continues to move towards a positive direction.
One of the most visible changes that occurred during Modi’s first and second terms in relationship with Nepal is the continuous exchanges of high-level visits which immensely helped to elevate the relationship at the top political level.
Modi and Nepal’s top political leaders have frequently talked either in-person or over the telephone – and such line of communication has helped resolve bilateral issues which cannot otherwise be resolved through bureaucratic channels. Also, top leaders from both sides have frequently provided guidance to the bureaucracy.
Export of Electricity from Nepal to India a Major Progress in Bilateral Ties
This does not mean that there have been no problems. Bilateral relations continue to face occasional irritants.
After 2014, all bilateral mechanisms were activated. Later, a bilateral mechanism was formed to look into the bottlenecks in the bilateral projects – and such mechanism was instrumental in speeding up of development projects.
The power trade agreement that paved the way to export electricity from Nepal to the Indian market as well as Bangladesh was a major progress in building an environment of trust between the two countries.
The meeting of joint commission, which is co-chaired by foreign ministers of both countries, has been meeting on a regular basis, albeit some irregularities caused by COVID-19 and other unavoidable situations.
There has been immense progress on connectivity projects such as cross-border pipelines, integrated checkposts, roads as well as some progress in on railways.
Nepal Expecting Enhanced Economic Collaborations During Modi 3.0
Over the past few years, sound development and economic partnerships between two countries have emerged which should be continued in Modi 3.0.
In Nepal, India often faces criticisms of interfering in its internal political affairs. However, of late, India at least publicly is taking a hands-off approach which has helped make the bilateral relationship cordial.
There are some outstanding issues such as the Peace and Friendship Treaty 1950, the report of Eminent Persons' Group (EPG) and the map row. Nepal’s political parties will want to see some progress towards resolving those issues.
Politicians of both countries have been reiterating the fact that resolving such issues requires mature, sustained, unprovoked, and careful diplomatic efforts.
Immediately, Kathmandu is expecting more economic assistance and Indian investments in Nepal. Economically, Nepal is currently passing through a difficult phase and is seeking the support from big economies, including India, which is poised to become world’s third largest economy.
No wonder then that during Modi’s third term, Nepal is expecting enhanced economic collaborations with India.
(Kamal Dev Bhattarai is a Kathmandu-based editor associated with the English daily The Annapurna Express. He writes on Nepal’s foreign policy and international relationship with an emphasis on India, China and USA. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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