Home Minister Amit Shah’s unusually long visit to Kashmir is the major topic of speculation not only in Srinagar itself, but probably in intelligence circles across the border. The three day visit marks the importance that the Centre is giving to stabilising the valley further, with the core of this effort aimed at providing opportunities for Kashmiris in the country’s development story.
The visit comes at a time when first, several attacks have hit ‘outsiders’ including poor labourers, and Hindus who are as much part of the state as the Chinar trees; second, there are myriad forces at work, perhaps not entirely limited to Pakistan, which makes the whole situation more dangerous still.
Delhi's Actions, Good & Bad, Rattle Terrorists
There is no doubt at all that recent targeting of minorities and outsiders have led to a sharp reversal of a a situation that had remained surprisingly calm after the setting aside of Article 370 in August 2019. It surprised the politicians and others who assumed that their detention would lead to chaos in the streets.
In the event, nothing very much happened, serving to underline how little they mattered, particularly the fire breathing separatists. Its lead actor, Syed Ali Shah Geelani is now dead, but not even that event seems to have impacted the state much.
Then came the Centre’s meeting with the political leaders of the valley, which in turn led to much speculation of a political process ahead. Prior to that was a less noticed event; a wide ranging review of the various schemes for Kashmir, including the setting up of new medical and nursing colleges, new Hydroelectric power and irrigation facilities, building of some 56,000 homes; disbursement of Rs 1,736 crore to 50 lakh persons through direct benefit transfer, and a thorough review of the newly elected Panchyati systems, an important cog in the governments’ plans for Kashmir.
More than all of this was the tangibles on the ground like the rise in tourism that is the life blood of the Kashmir region, the increase in employment to levels higher than even Delhi, and the intangible confidence apparent in the slow return of the once exiled Pandits, marking the beginnings of a yet undefined ‘normalcy’.
Delhi Garnering Support from Islamic Nations on Kashmir
Delhi had another card up its sleeve. Just prior to the HM’s visit, an agreement was signed between the Union territory and Dubai for investment in infrastructure. That’s not just a boost for the area, but for Delhi’s Kashmir strategy as a whole.
With countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and much of West Asia in the throes of change, and Kashmir issue virtually out of the OIC (Organisation of Islamic countries), the backing for the ‘self determination’ arguments are dying.
In sum, both the internal and external aspects of Kashmir were changing, and quickly. This was Amit Shah in combat mode. The terrorists had to react or become irrelevant.
Amit Shah's Public Chutzpah
At Srinagar, the home minsiter would have encountered an atmosphere of fear among not just minorities, but those Kashmiris fearing a return to the sorrow and violence of the 1990’s. Shah therefore seemed intent on sending a message that everything was under control. He offered prayers at the revered Kheer Bhawani temple, visited the family of Parvaiz Ahmed, a police officer killed in June, removed the bullet proofing of the podium in a meeting with local government leaders, managed a close up ‘pressing the flesh’ during public interactions, and, most importantly, met Panchayati Raj leaders as well as prominent Sufi leaders.
He publicly chose to wonder why Kashmiris were not part of India’s cricket team, at a time when parts of Srinagar were seeing jubilation and exultation at Pakistan’s win over India.
That called for a certain chutzpah and good sense. Detractors will say that his trip to Dal lake, saw the area being sealed for days, that streets were deserted, and that an indifferent bureaucracy was stifling development, refusing even to fill important posts like the head of the crack Special Operations Group.
But the HM tried to do what a minister is supposed to do; instil confidence among the people of all faiths that the government cared, and would deal with it.
That’s it. Don’t expect miracles from one visit. What's important is the follow up.
Morale Boost to Security Agencies
The HM’s emphasis on the paramilitary forces who have borne the brunt of urban terrorism, was apparent in his praise of the SF role at Lethpora, the site where 40 CRPF personnel were killed in 2019. This was a shout of support from ‘General’ Shah, for a force that has not always got the credit it deserves.
He was equally appreciative of the army’s role, crediting them and others for the near total end of the stone pelting of the past. Statistics provided by the Ministry show that terrorist incidents dropped 59 per cent in 2019, and 32 per cent so far relative to the corresponding period; a huge drop for which all forces deserve credit.
Meanwhile, the army has been involved in a punishing flushing operation in the Surankote forests, which has killed 9 army personnel so far. A highly trained group of terrorists are understood to have been holed up for some months, awaiting an opportunity to strike. Alongside, combined operations against ‘over ground workers’ of terror groups cut off logistics support. All this will continue in the indefinite future.
With the Line of Control remaining quiet and infiltration at a low, it may seem that the ball is now in the government's court. Not quite. Things have changed.
Is LoC Getting Increasingly Irrelevant?
Making the Loc the barometer for Kashmir may no longer hold good.
First, consider that weapons continue to be dropped by drones into the state, making it unnecessary for the Pakistani forces to give covering fire to both infiltrators and weapons carriers.
Second, the exhortations of the Islamic State of Khorasan through its media is meant to warn that Afghanistan is coming to India. It is not. The threat is much closer home.
Third, the ‘fire’ of Kashmir is being kept well and alive outside even Pakistan. PM Imran Khan continues to rant on Kashmir, but his emissaries are touring the world.
The ‘President’ of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir’ Sultan Choudhry was in the UK meeting Lord Wajid Khan, a Labour MP who together with other members like Azhar Ali, have been active on Pakistan’s behalf. That includes a clutch of ‘charities’ in support of the Kashmir cause.
Then, there was the Bill introduced by US Congresswoman Ilhan Omar and 30 others to press for a UN Envoy to combat Islamphobia, bracketing India with China, and Myanmar for alleged atrocities against Muslims. That bill was being pushed by CAIR ( Council on American Islamic Relatioms) which has long been linked to terror financing, and together with organisations like the Islamic Council for North America have strong links with pan Islamic groups like the Jamaat e Islami.
Until this intermeshing network of organisations is dealt with – together with their funding for fellowships in prestigious universities and social media presence that target the youth – the Kashmir issue will continue to smoulder, even as the LoC remains quiet.
Delhi Needs to Ensure Security of Kashmir's Land & People
In sum, while the HM’s punishing schedule in Kashmir will go some way to engender hope, its simply not enough.
First, the necessity for speed of implementation needs to be forced on to the bureaucracy in Srinagar, in a ‘with us or against us’ mode. In other words, hold the Rip Van Winkles accountable and get the projects moving.
Second, across the board targeting of political parties may be unwise. At some point, some politicians will have to be taken on board.
Third, terrorist targeting is meant to paralyse society and thinking. Get that out of the window by going ahead with a spate of Cultural festivals envisaged earlier.
Fourth, encourage all media sources to underline the very real support from Kashmiris to both outsiders and Pandits in asking them not to leave. Involve the youth in this enterprise of confidence building.
Finally, fund programs in universities both in India and abroad on how to carry forward the positive aspects on Kashmir. It’s now less about the Loc and more about information.
But in this exercise, remember that positive narratives from the government, however numerous, are no good. It actually has to happen on and from the ground. The story has to be told by the Kashmiris themselves.
(Dr Tara Kartha is a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS). She tweets at @kartha_tara. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
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