It is rightly said that politics is the art of the possible. In that sense, this election season has already seen a lot of shifting dynamics – from unexpected alliances to some big ticket exits across party lines. However, doubts over the Bharatiya Janata Party’s return with a majority, is slowly gaining momentum albeit silently.
This acceptance by even neutral supporters of the ruling party is an indication that the game is now wide open. With five phases over and two more to go, the scale may tilt towards any formation.
Hence, in a scenario where the scale does tilt towards the UPA, they can gather enough seats to form the government with support from other regional parties. It is important to analyse who stands the best chance to grace the residence of 7, Lok Kalyan Marg.
Such an arrangement will totally depend on how many seats the Congress wins on its own.
If the grand old party manages to reach a tally somewhere between 125-150 seats, then it can surely stake claim for the prime minister's chair.
But, in such a scenario, the Congress president may choose not to become the prime minister. It seems he believes in being a custodian of power than actually being in power. Apart from that, it's unlikely that the Gandhi family would head a shaky coalition which may be susceptible to a lot of compromises to remain in power.
This then begs the question – If not the Congress President then who?
The answer to this question is very complex. After all, post the spectacular surprise win that the INC pulled off in 2004, no one anticipated that Sonia Gandhi will opt out of the PM’s race and nominate Dr Manmohan Singh. A similar scenario in 2019 cannot be ruled out either.
While there may be a plethora of leaders who would be up for the job, it is difficult to know what the Gandhis have in mind. But given the current atmosphere of the country, there's only one leader in the Congress who can be their best bet for the top job. It's none other than Punjab Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh.
Good Administrative Track Record
Being a five-time MLA, a two-time MP and serving his second term as chief minister, the Captain’s administrative track record in both state and national level is quite good. It is said that his friend from Doon School, former PM Rajiv Gandhi, brought the Captain into politics.
He won his first election for the Parliament in 1980 from Patiala, defeating Gurcharan Singh Tohra, who was the then president of the influential Shiromani Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee (SGPC). Since then he has remained an influential political figure in both state and national politics.
The Captain is also a close aide to former Congress President Sonia Gandhi, which can work in his favour. After all he merged the splinter group of Shiromani Akali Dal (Panthic) in 1998 when Sonia took over the reins of the Congress party.
It was no surprise that she picked him for the high-profile election from Amritsar against Arun Jaitely during the 2014 General Elections. What happened next is history.
Captain Amarinder Singh is known as a no-nonsense administrator, extremely well-read and acts tough in adverse situations. This will help him and the Congress party immensely while heading a coalition at the Centre to maintain the image of a decisive government.
Strengthening the Federal Structure
Choosing Captain Amarinder Singh for the top job has other benefits too which can help the Congress party maintain a positive narrative. For starters, most regional parties headed by strong stalwarts will find it difficult to oppose the candidature of a fellow CM.
The Congress would gain brownie points for promoting a strong regional leader and thereby strengthening the core federal structure of our governance. Being a former CM himself, it is safe to assume that he will be more sympathetic towards state issues.
This also helps in boosting the morale of the cadre tremendously across states. The party will also get rid of the tag of running a centralised high command culture where strong regional leaders are not nurtured.
It'll certainly lead to emergence of strong leaders across states where the party’s position is weak. After all, Narendra Modi too was a multi-term CM before catapulting to the chair of the Prime Minister.
It’ll be quite difficult for the Opposition to label him as a lame duck PM given his credentials, as he is not known for watching his words when attacked. Given how presidential our politics is becoming slowly, this will give a definitive edge to the Congress.
Bury 1984 Riots Taint Forever
Over the 55 years that the grand old party ruled over the country, there cannot be a more embarrassing and regretful incident than the horrific anti-sikh riots that gripped the nation in the aftermath of the deadly assassination of the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi.
Independent sources estimated the number of deaths at about 8,000-17,000 while government estimates project that about 2,800 Sikhs were killed in Delhi alone. Congress has never fully been able to recover from the taint but they did try to make amends.
In 1998, while addressing a rally in Chandigarh, Sonia Gandhi publicly apologised for both Operation Bluestar and the 1984 Sikh riots. In 2005, the then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh too apologised from the floor of the house saying, “On behalf of our government, on behalf of the entire people of this country I bow my head in shame that such a thing took place.”
This is in sharp contrast to BJP's total lack of remorse, forget apology, for the 2002 Gujarat riots. It is interesting to note that since then, the Congress has formed government both in Punjab and Delhi thrice.
Congress also showed immense maturity by giving India its first prime minister from a minority community, by appointing Dr Manmohan Singh, a Sikh. This was enough to reiterate the point that while ’84 riots can never be forgotten or forgiven, the party has never been anti-Sikh.
By appointing another Sikh prime minister, they'll send a much larger message both to the community as well as to minorities, especially in an environment of extreme polarisation. The BJP will find it difficult to give the appointment a communal twist and would be completely checkmated.
What’s relatively unknown is that the Captain is also the president of the All India Jat Mahasabha. Elevating him for the job can also help consolidate Jats in favour of the party especially in states like Haryana and Rajasthan.
Decorated War Hero, Nationalist Icon
There is no denying the fact that the BJP totally dominates the nationalist narrative in the country as this entire election is being fought on the nationalism plank. If not for Balakot, the Modi government would be seriously running short of talking points during the election campaigning.
The entire Opposition and particularly the Congress party, so far hasn't been able to make a dent in the BJP's narrative. Worse, their statements are often twisted and projected as contrarian to the country's best interests.
But if there is one politician in the Opposition camp who can successfully and convincingly take away the nationalism card from the BJP, it's the Captain.
The earliest example of this was seen post the Pulwama attack. Not only was he amongst the first to condemn it and call for a strict retaliation against Pakistan, but also the first to congratulate the armed forces after the Balakot airstrikes.
When Lt Commander Abhinandan was released by Pakistan, he voluntarily offered to receive him at the Wagah border. Whether Pathankot or Pulwama, he has maintained a tough stand and repeatedly surveyed border areas of Punjab post the attacks.
It is popularly said that Amarinder is more of a hardliner against Pakistan and when it comes to issues of nationalism in the Congress than even the BJP.
This is something that the right-wing party will find difficult to counter. Being an ex-army man and a decorated war hero also works in the Captain’s favour. Not only did he serve in the army but was also a part of the Sikh Regiment during the 1965 war against Pakistan where India emerged victorious.
Therefore emotionally playing the nationalism card against him will in all likelihood boomerang on the BJP. Even the mere optics of trying to charge him of being soft on terror or with Pakistan will prove catastrophic for the party.
Anyone who follows Twitter conversations would also agree that he enjoys a lot of support even amongst BJP’s core supporters who during Balakot went head over heels to praise him to the extent of saying that he's a good man in the wrong party.
No Threat To Timely Succession
Given so many positives that work in his favour, the question of succession arises in everyone's mind, should the UPA coalition perform well under the Captain’s leadership leading to the return of Congress with higher number of seats – like what happened in 2009 where Congress won more than 200 seats under Dr Manmohan Singh.
Naturally the party would want Congress President Rahul Gandhi to occupy the PM's chair. With Amarinder, this succession will be extremely smooth as he's already 77 and by the time he completes his tenure, he'll be 82.
At the age of 82, it’s highly unlikely that Rahul Gandhi will face any major threat from him. It may be recalled that during 2017’s Punjab assembly elections, he had announced that he’s fighting the last election of his life.
Cut to 2024, if the Congress party are to return with a better mandate, then the succession issue is settled. This will also help the party address the succession issue in Punjab where the party will face a leadership vacuum after Amarinder. With him occupying the PM's chair, it'll be easier for the party to hold on to its current advantage in the state.
However, all of this is easier said than done. There will be a lot of hurdles both in his appointment and while running the coalition government. Besides, what the Gandhi family has in mind we will never know till they reveal their cards.
The party may also find it difficult to choose the right candidate to succeed him as CM. Amongst the state leadership, right from Sunil Jakhar to Partap Singh Bajwa, Navjot Singh Sidhu to Manpreet Badal, it'll be a tough choice to make.
Although, as on today, Sidhu remains their most popular face both in and outside Punjab and is also known to be closer to the Gandhi siblings.
As for Amarinder, allegations of being a feudal erstwhile Maharaja will definitely be levelled. There are even speculations of him usually starting the day late unlike most of his contemporaries.
Neither will he be easy to play hardball with when it comes to the allies, nor will he be able to bring in any significant caste group such as the OBCs, Dalits, upper caste or EBCs etc into the party fold to help in future elections pan India.
But these are issues that can be managed and dealt with. As of today, the positives far outnumber the negatives.
If the Gandhi scion is indeed an astute politician, he should definitely consider this as a serious option in case he decides to opt out of the PM's race post 23 May, if UPA gets the desired numbers.
(Bishal Paul is an author, screenwriter, filmmaker and entrepreneur. He tweets @BuiSpeaks. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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