After today's presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in a presidential election that is a toss-up according to the polls, the Democrats can finally breathe a sigh of relief.
The debate between Joe Biden and Trump on 27 June probably had the most profound impact on the race, like no other seen before.
Biden’s performance was so disastrous that his party pressed him to drop out. Since Vice President Harris replaced him as the Democrats’ nominee, both candidates are neck-to-neck.
Harris decimated Trump in this debate. She did this without shouting, interrupting, or complaining about the time given to speak. The vice president remained calm and composed as she emasculated the former president, one subtle jab at a time.
Trump and His Lies
Not everything that Harris said may have worked for her in the debate, which covered all possible topics from abortion to immigration to the economy to racial issues. She, however, had the discipline to shake her head sadly and smile dismissively when Trump made laughably false accusations against her.
As Fran Bruni said, “She had the skill here, on full display, i.e. of the prosecutor in her — to needle him (Trump) into maximal seething.”
Trump, on the other hand, made a fool of himself throughout much of the 90-minute debate, talking about migrants being a tool of foreign leaders who are "eating the dogs. The people that came in — they’re eating the cats. They’re eating the pets of the people that live there."
Pushing forward more fake news, he said, "You could do abortions in the seventh month, the eighth month, the ninth month, and probably after birth." Abortions after birth are illegal across the US, regardless of which party is ruling a state.
No debate including Trump can be complete without personal attacks, “She's a Marxist. Everybody knows she's a Marxist. Her father is a Marxist professor in economics, and he taught her well.” Harris merely smiled. Indeed, how does one respond to these statements?
As David Firestone wrote after the debate, “The debate was an unqualified success for Harris not just because she was able to define herself and her plans but also because she was able to push a few buttons and let Trump show off his truest self.”
Trump Probably Regrets Debating Biden
Before the much-awaited debate, Harris was polling only marginally ahead of Trump (roughly by three points across most polls) and those analysing the race argued that this debate would be quite consequential in defining how US voters (especially in some of the swing states) ultimately choose their candidate in November.
After seeing his performance tonight, Trump may feel, in retrospect, that his timing and decision to debate Biden in June may not have been a good idea, as by then, he was polling way ahead of Biden. A few more months of waiting would have not made the sudden departure of the latter a possibility.
As Biden left the race, it threw a new set of challenges for the Trump campaign against Harris, who they (and the voters) know less about as a presidential candidate.
Traditionally, voters gain most from the presidential debate by knowing more about a candidate who they otherwise know little about. Tonight, that person was Harris.
Seeing her performance, many are likely to be convinced of her candidacy and credibility to be the next Commander in Chief of the United States.
Do Presidential Debates Really Impact Electoral Outcomes?
Political scientists have been sceptical about how much of an effect the debates have on voting. Robert Erikson of Columbia University and Christopher Wlezien of the University of Texas at Austin analysed presidential elections from 1960 to 2008 and found that polls taken before debates were very close to those taken a week after them.
Further analysis by The Economist suggests that debates also made little difference in 2012, or even 2016 when the first head-to-head between Hillary Clinton and Trump attracted a record 84 million viewers (see the chart below).
Analysing the impact of presidential debates.
(Chart: The Economist)
According to The Economist, “The debates in 2020 stood out not because of their effect on the polls, but because they were little more than slanging matches.” Indeed, Biden called Trump a "clown" and famously said, “Will you shut up, man?”
In normal circumstances, it is unsurprising that debates rarely make a difference. Those who tune in tend to be interested in politics already, and polling suggests that partisans are more likely to watch than independents. Many viewers will have already made up their minds.
This election, however, is quite different.
Harris became the Democratic Party’s champion very late in the race and many voters sought to make up their minds after seeing her spirited debate performance today.
And she laid tonight bare the smallness of Trump’s manhood and asserted her own power, competence, and confidence in the face of it.
In the end, only a woman — probably the next US president — could do that on behalf of millions of Americans.
(Deepanshu Mohan is a Professor of Economics, Dean, IDEAS, Office of Inter-Disciplinary Studies, and Director of Centre for New Economics Studies (CNES), OP Jindal Global University. He is a Visiting Professor at the London School of Economics, and a 2024 Fall Academic Visitor to the Faculty of Asian and Middle Eastern Studies, University of Oxford. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)
