UP Bypolls: Yogi's Supremacy Restored, Akhilesh Might Need a New Narrative

UP, after all, was the main reason why the BJP couldn’t get a simple majority of its own in the general elections.

The BJP-led NDA has won seven of the nine Assembly seats in which bypolls were held in Uttar Pradesh.

While in bypolls across the country, people have largely voted for the incumbent, the UP results still provide much-needed relief to Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath ahead of the crucial Vidhan Sabha elections in 2027. After a setback during the general elections, this victory is also a morale booster to the BJP cadres after the 2024 Lok Sabha performance. This also greatly weakens any opposition to Yogi from within the party.

On the other hand, the results come as a big shock to the SP as four of these nine seats are stronghold seats of the party, i.e., Karhal, Kundarki, Katehari, and Sisamau. The SP appeared to have successfully consolidated the Muslim-Yadav vote base plus lower OBCs and Non-Jatav Dalits during the Lok Sabha polls, but this time around, it lost even in Kundarki which has a 60 percent Muslim population.

The Samajwadi Party retained its bastions Karhal (Mainpuri) and Sisamau (Kanpur) but lost Kundarki (Moradabad) and Katehari (Ambedkarnagar), which it had won in the 2022 Assembly elections. It was also defeated in five other seats — Meerapur, Majhawan, Ghaziabad, Khair and Phulpur. The party has alleged that the results were managed and controlled by the BJP administration.

3 Key Takeaways

1) 2024 general elections an aberration

The BJP would like to portray the results as a reversion to the mean and highlight the 7-2 scoreline as the BJP’s continued dominance along with the decimation of the opposition, i.e, the 2024 results were an aberration and SP-led alliance is no match for the BJP-led NDA in the state.

However, too much should not be read into this victory as bypolls normally give the incumbent government's candidates a good chance of victory, as the data and history suggest. Congress, AAP, TMC, BJP, and CPIM have won most of the bypoll contests in Karnataka, Punjab, West Bengal, Bihar/Uttarakhand/Assam/UP/Rajasthan, and Kerala respectively.

2) Yogi the undisputed leader of UP BJP

The results strengthen the hand of Yogi Adityanath. He had to endure criticism after the shocking loss in the general elections. After all, UP was the main reason why the BJP couldn’t get a simple majority of its own. This also strained his relationship with PM Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, who hold him responsible for their dependency on the NDA allies.

OBC leaders and Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya who had lost out to Yogi in the leadership race in 2017 despite leading the campaign, also took potshots at him, claiming that sangathan is bigger than the opposition. Now, after the BJP's win, Maurya has claimed that the SP should not have any hopes of coming to power in the state till 2047. He also accused the party of misleading the backwards classes and the Dalits by allying with the BSP in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and the Congress in 2024.

3) Akhilesh needs to look for a new narrative 

Akhilesh coined the term "PDA" which worked to his advantage in the general elections as he received good support from the Kurmis and non-Jatav Dalits, alongside the Muslims and Yadavs, thereby expanding his vote base. The caste census pitch helped the SP-Congress alliance win over a section of OBCs and Dalits. However, as we have seen in Maharashtra, the same issue cannot be encashed twice.

Akhilesh will have to look for a new narrative to exploit the 10-year anti-incumbency factor in the 2027 Assembly election. He would need to raise issues like inflation, unemployment, and law and order to tap into the discontent amongst the poor and youth. He should also be ready to neutralise any Ladki Bahin-type scheme that could be launched in the future and negate any natural disgruntlement amongst voters. 

The 2027 state elections, which will be a semi-final before the general elections scheduled in 2029, are still two-and-a-half years away. The BJP, bleeding after the 2024 general elections loss, will find solace in these bypoll results. From a perception perspective, this is a big boost to the saffron party, giving it an upper hand for 2027.

Two-and-a-half years years is a long time in politics. The law and order plank, which helped Yogi win a record second term in 2022, has deteriorated with communal clashes in Bahraich and Sambhal. Also, the tragic death of babies in a hospital fire in Jhansi has taken some sheen off Yogi's "strong administrator" image. All these factors could bolster the batenge to katenge narrative, further polarising the electorate before 2027.

(Amitabh Tiwari is an independent political commentator and can be reached at @politicalbaaba on X [formerly Twitter]. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)